Tornado Warning 57, NWS Shreveport, LA

759 
WWUS54 KSHV 042342
SVSSHV

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
642 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

TXC459-042351-
/O.CAN.KSHV.TO.W.0057.000000T0000Z-221105T0000Z/
Upshur TX-
642 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN UPSHUR COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. 
However, a new warning has been issued for portions of the county to 
account for a cell moving out of Smith, into Upshur.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for northeastern
Texas.

LAT...LON 3332 9477 3332 9475 3333 9475 3333 9474
      3331 9473 3331 9469 3330 9469 3327 9465
      3304 9465 3291 9478 3304 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 216DEG 42KT 3304 9484 

$$

TXC063-343-449-050000-
/O.CON.KSHV.TO.W.0057.000000T0000Z-221105T0000Z/
Morris TX-Titus TX-Camp TX-
642 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR MORRIS...
SOUTHEASTERN TITUS AND CENTRAL CAMP COUNTIES...
    
At 641 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located over Cason, or 7 miles east of Pittsburg, moving
northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

This dangerous storm will be near...
  Daingerfield around 645 PM CDT.
  Cookville around 650 PM CDT.
  Omaha and Rocky Branch around 655 PM CDT.
  Naples around 700 PM CDT.
  Us 259 And I 30 Intersection around 705 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this tornadic thunderstorm include
Roeder, Center Point and Harvard.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3332 9477 3332 9475 3333 9475 3333 9474
      3331 9473 3331 9469 3330 9469 3327 9465
      3304 9465 3291 9478 3304 9500
TIME...MOT...LOC 2341Z 216DEG 42KT 3304 9484 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

44

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
614 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Thunderstorm development is currently underway across portions of
the Fort Worth metroplex, with further development still expect to
the east of that. This eventual line of thunderstorms is still
expected to start trekking east across the region, with activity
ongoing to start the short-term. By 03z, the line should be
effecting portions of NW Louisiana and SW Arkansas, with the
threat for severe weather remaining for a few hours beyond this.
At this point in the life cycle of the QLCS, the primary severe
threats should be shifting towards damaging winds, with an
embedded QLCS tornado threat as well. The threat for severe
weather should exit the region with the line around 5-6am, with a
slight decrease in threat overall as instability decreases
overnight.

As the front pushes through the area, temperatures will begin to
fall overnight. Given the cold air advection, lows will range from
the low-40s north, to upper 50s south. The cold front also looks
to quickly rebound, influencing highs tomorrow with mid-60s north,
and low to mid-70s south. As the skies clear into tomorrow night
and winds decouple, temperatures should drop into the low to
upper-40s.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Beginning Sunday, the cold front which is expected to bring severe
weather this evening and overnight will be to our SE but begin a
gradual northward retreat back across the region through the day on
Sunday. In the process, warm air advection showers will be possible
late Sunday through Monday as the warm front eventually lifts back
north of the region. Although thunderstorms are unlikely, we cannot
rule out a few isolated storms in addition to the scattered showers
on Monday as daytime heating may provide just enough instability for
slightly deeper convection. Otherwise, the general theme for much of
next week will be the above normal temperatures through Thursday as
upper-level ridging builds across the Lower/Mid MS Valley.

By Wednesday and especially Thursday, the upper-level ridge will
migrate NE into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and eventually the Mid
Atlantic by the end of the week. This will allow for the next major
trough and cold front to spill out of the Rockies eastward into the
Plains and central CONUS with another chance for convection by late
Thursday into Friday. This cold front is also expected to usher in a
noticeably cooler air mass as post-frontal temperatures on Friday
are only expected to reach into the 60s to lower 70s for afternoon
highs. Lows on Friday night will fall into the upper 30s north to
lower and mid 40s south as high pressure builds into the region for
next weekend.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

For the 05/00Z TAFs, active weather will result in deteriorating
flight conditions through the next several hours as a line of
powerful storms progresses from west to east, bringing heavy
precipitation, with drops into LIFR VIS and CIGS likely. Gusty
winds continue ahead of and within the main line of storms, with
LLWs potentially posing a concern for smaller craft. Conditions
will quickly clear behind the line from west to east as soon as
05/06Z across northern and western airspace.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  52  68  50 /  50 100   0   0
MLU  85  58  71  50 /  10 100  10   0
DEQ  78  44  65  42 /  90 100   0   0
TXK  80  49  65  48 /  70 100   0   0
ELD  81  50  68  44 /  40 100   0   0
TYR  82  48  64  51 /  90  80   0   0
GGG  83  48  66  48 /  80  90   0   0
LFK  85  51  71  50 /  70  90   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
844 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-051345-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
844 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to begin affecting the
region late this afternoon and continue through the evening and
overnight hours. This threat will occur along a frontal boundary
that will shift east across the region with very warm and unstable
air ahead of the front along with increasing shear. Damaging winds,
hail, and tornadoes will all be possible. A few particularly strong
and significant tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially across the
western half of the region to include Southeast Oklahoma, East Texas
and the adjacent areas of Southwest Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon through the
overnight hours.

19