Tornado Warning 56, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
246 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Thunderstorm development is currently underway across portions of
the Fort Worth metroplex, with further development still expect to
the east of that. This eventual line of thunderstorms is still
expected to start trekking east across the region, with activity
ongoing to start the short-term. By 03z, the line should be
effecting portions of NW Louisiana and SW Arkansas, with the
threat for severe weather remaining for a few hours beyond this.
At this point in the life cycle of the QLCS, the primary severe
threats should be shifting towards damaging winds, with an
embedded QLCS tornado threat as well. The threat for severe
weather should exit the region with the line around 5-6am, with a
slight decrease in threat overall as instability decreases
overnight.

As the front pushes through the area, temperatures will begin to
fall overnight. Given the cold air advection, lows will range from
the low-40s north, to upper 50s south. The cold front also looks
to quickly rebound, influencing highs tomorrow with mid-60s north,
and low to mid-70s south. As the skies clear into tomorrow night
and winds decouple, temperatures should drop into the low to
upper-40s.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Beginning Sunday, the cold front which is expected to bring severe
weather this evening and overnight will be to our SE but begin a
gradual northward retreat back across the region through the day on
Sunday. In the process, warm air advection showers will be possible
late Sunday through Monday as the warm front eventually lifts back
north of the region. Although thunderstorms are unlikely, we cannot
rule out a few isolated storms in addition to the scattered showers
on Monday as daytime heating may provide just enough instability for
slightly deeper convection. Otherwise, the general theme for much of
next week will be the above normal temperatures through Thursday as
upper-level ridging builds across the Lower/Mid MS Valley.

By Wednesday and especially Thursday, the upper-level ridge will
migrate NE into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and eventually the Mid
Atlantic by the end of the week. This will allow for the next major
trough and cold front to spill out of the Rockies eastward into the
Plains and central CONUS with another chance for convection by late
Thursday into Friday. This cold front is also expected to usher in a
noticeably cooler air mass as post-frontal temperatures on Friday
are only expected to reach into the 60s to lower 70s for afternoon
highs. Lows on Friday night will fall into the upper 30s north to
lower and mid 40s south as high pressure builds into the region for
next weekend.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Widespread MVFR ceilings blanket the region, as moisture gets
pulled in ahead of todays severe weather. Expect things to
deteriorate as storms start moving into the region. All sites are
carrying some sort of heavy precipitation, with drops into LIFR
VIS and CIGS likely as these storms move east. Gusty winds will
also be likely into the afternoon, with LLWS potentially being a
problem for smaller craft. Expect gradual clearing from west to
east by 05/08z in some locations.

/44/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  68  50  78 / 100   0   0  10
MLU  58  71  50  79 / 100  10   0  10
DEQ  44  65  42  76 / 100   0   0   0
TXK  49  65  48  76 / 100   0   0   0
ELD  50  68  44  76 / 100   0   0   0
TYR  48  64  51  77 /  80   0   0   0
GGG  48  66  48  77 /  90   0   0   0
LFK  51  71  50  80 /  90   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...44
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...44

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
844 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-051345-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
844 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to begin affecting the
region late this afternoon and continue through the evening and
overnight hours. This threat will occur along a frontal boundary
that will shift east across the region with very warm and unstable
air ahead of the front along with increasing shear. Damaging winds,
hail, and tornadoes will all be possible. A few particularly strong
and significant tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially across the
western half of the region to include Southeast Oklahoma, East Texas
and the adjacent areas of Southwest Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon through the
overnight hours.

19