Severe Thunderstorm Warning 244, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1012 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 941 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

As of the 03Z hour, the destructive line of storms responsible
for extensive damage this evening has begun to be undercut by the
cold front entering the ArkLaTex, which is resulting in a reduced
tornado threat as it tracks eastward. That being said, the tornado
threat has not been entirely eliminated, thus the previous
Tornado Watch remains in effect across southwest Arkansas,
northwest Louisiana and deep east Texas through 06Z, with a new
Tornado Watch including Union County, AR and north central
Louisiana through 09Z.

The squall line continues to produce damaging winds and torrential
rainfall from Nevada County, AR in the northeast to Panola County,
TX, with weaker convection extending south and west into Cherokee
County, TX, with isolated areas of scattered convection ahead of
the squall line in deep east Texas and northwest Louisiana.

The latest hires model guidance continues to depict the line
exiting the Four State Region entirely by 08Z to 09Z. The above
has been well supported by the afternoon forecast package, and no
major updates were required, aside from ingesting the latest
temperature obs and extrapolating through 12Z.

/26/

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Thunderstorm development is currently underway across portions of
the Fort Worth metroplex, with further development still expect to
the east of that. This eventual line of thunderstorms is still
expected to start trekking east across the region, with activity
ongoing to start the short-term. By 03z, the line should be
effecting portions of NW Louisiana and SW Arkansas, with the
threat for severe weather remaining for a few hours beyond this.
At this point in the life cycle of the QLCS, the primary severe
threats should be shifting towards damaging winds, with an
embedded QLCS tornado threat as well. The threat for severe
weather should exit the region with the line around 5-6am, with a
slight decrease in threat overall as instability decreases
overnight.

As the front pushes through the area, temperatures will begin to
fall overnight. Given the cold air advection, lows will range from
the low-40s north, to upper 50s south. The cold front also looks
to quickly rebound, influencing highs tomorrow with mid-60s north,
and low to mid-70s south. As the skies clear into tomorrow night
and winds decouple, temperatures should drop into the low to
upper-40s.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Beginning Sunday, the cold front which is expected to bring severe
weather this evening and overnight will be to our SE but begin a
gradual northward retreat back across the region through the day on
Sunday. In the process, warm air advection showers will be possible
late Sunday through Monday as the warm front eventually lifts back
north of the region. Although thunderstorms are unlikely, we cannot
rule out a few isolated storms in addition to the scattered showers
on Monday as daytime heating may provide just enough instability for
slightly deeper convection. Otherwise, the general theme for much of
next week will be the above normal temperatures through Thursday as
upper-level ridging builds across the Lower/Mid MS Valley.

By Wednesday and especially Thursday, the upper-level ridge will
migrate NE into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and eventually the Mid
Atlantic by the end of the week. This will allow for the next major
trough and cold front to spill out of the Rockies eastward into the
Plains and central CONUS with another chance for convection by late
Thursday into Friday. This cold front is also expected to usher in a
noticeably cooler air mass as post-frontal temperatures on Friday
are only expected to reach into the 60s to lower 70s for afternoon
highs. Lows on Friday night will fall into the upper 30s north to
lower and mid 40s south as high pressure builds into the region for
next weekend.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

For the 05/00Z TAFs, active weather will result in deteriorating
flight conditions through the next several hours as a line of
powerful storms progresses from west to east, bringing heavy
precipitation, with drops into LIFR VIS and CIGS likely. Gusty
winds continue ahead of and within the main line of storms, with
LLWs potentially posing a concern for smaller craft. Conditions
will quickly clear behind the line from west to east as soon as
05/06Z across northern and western airspace.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  52  68  50  78 / 100   0   0  10
MLU  58  71  50  79 / 100  10   0  10
DEQ  44  65  42  76 / 100   0   0   0
TXK  49  65  48  76 / 100   0   0   0
ELD  50  68  44  76 / 100   0   0   0
TYR  48  64  51  77 /  80   0   0   0
GGG  48  66  48  77 /  90   0   0   0
LFK  51  71  50  80 /  90   0   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
844 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-051345-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
844 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to begin affecting the
region late this afternoon and continue through the evening and
overnight hours. This threat will occur along a frontal boundary
that will shift east across the region with very warm and unstable
air ahead of the front along with increasing shear. Damaging winds,
hail, and tornadoes will all be possible. A few particularly strong
and significant tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially across the
western half of the region to include Southeast Oklahoma, East Texas
and the adjacent areas of Southwest Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon through the
overnight hours.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1021 PM CDT FRI NOV 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TORNADO          1 NNW NEW BOSTON        33.48N 94.43W
11/04/2022                   BOWIE              TX   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA PICTURES SHOWED SIGNIFICANT
            DAMAGE IN THE NEW BOSTON AREA.

&&

BT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1042 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

ARZ072-073-050415-
Union AR-Columbia AR-
1042 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western Union and
southeastern Columbia Counties through 1115 PM CDT...

At 1041 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Stephens to near Atlanta. Movement was
east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
El Dorado, Smackover, Norphlet, Junction City, Village, Lisbon, Mount
Holly, Atlanta, Wesson, Hew Hope, Ebenezer, Newell, Marysville,
Cairo, Noxobe, Three Creeks, Kenova, Spotville, Medlock and
Catesville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southwestern
Arkansas. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for
south central Arkansas...and north central and northwestern
Louisiana.

&&

LAT...LON 3301 9266 3302 9319 3338 9307 3337 9279
      3339 9276 3338 9273 3336 9268 3337 9265
      3336 9260 3337 9259 3336 9255
TIME...MOT...LOC 0341Z 263DEG 30KT 3344 9299 3303 9312

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

20

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