Severe Thunderstorm Warning 238, NWS Shreveport, LA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
614 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Thunderstorm development is currently underway across portions of
the Fort Worth metroplex, with further development still expect to
the east of that. This eventual line of thunderstorms is still
expected to start trekking east across the region, with activity
ongoing to start the short-term. By 03z, the line should be
effecting portions of NW Louisiana and SW Arkansas, with the
threat for severe weather remaining for a few hours beyond this.
At this point in the life cycle of the QLCS, the primary severe
threats should be shifting towards damaging winds, with an
embedded QLCS tornado threat as well. The threat for severe
weather should exit the region with the line around 5-6am, with a
slight decrease in threat overall as instability decreases
overnight.

As the front pushes through the area, temperatures will begin to
fall overnight. Given the cold air advection, lows will range from
the low-40s north, to upper 50s south. The cold front also looks
to quickly rebound, influencing highs tomorrow with mid-60s north,
and low to mid-70s south. As the skies clear into tomorrow night
and winds decouple, temperatures should drop into the low to
upper-40s.

/44/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 209 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

Beginning Sunday, the cold front which is expected to bring severe
weather this evening and overnight will be to our SE but begin a
gradual northward retreat back across the region through the day on
Sunday. In the process, warm air advection showers will be possible
late Sunday through Monday as the warm front eventually lifts back
north of the region. Although thunderstorms are unlikely, we cannot
rule out a few isolated storms in addition to the scattered showers
on Monday as daytime heating may provide just enough instability for
slightly deeper convection. Otherwise, the general theme for much of
next week will be the above normal temperatures through Thursday as
upper-level ridging builds across the Lower/Mid MS Valley.

By Wednesday and especially Thursday, the upper-level ridge will
migrate NE into the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and eventually the Mid
Atlantic by the end of the week. This will allow for the next major
trough and cold front to spill out of the Rockies eastward into the
Plains and central CONUS with another chance for convection by late
Thursday into Friday. This cold front is also expected to usher in a
noticeably cooler air mass as post-frontal temperatures on Friday
are only expected to reach into the 60s to lower 70s for afternoon
highs. Lows on Friday night will fall into the upper 30s north to
lower and mid 40s south as high pressure builds into the region for
next weekend.

/19/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 603 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

For the 05/00Z TAFs, active weather will result in deteriorating
flight conditions through the next several hours as a line of
powerful storms progresses from west to east, bringing heavy
precipitation, with drops into LIFR VIS and CIGS likely. Gusty
winds continue ahead of and within the main line of storms, with
LLWs potentially posing a concern for smaller craft. Conditions
will quickly clear behind the line from west to east as soon as
05/06Z across northern and western airspace.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  83  52  68  50 /  50 100   0   0
MLU  85  58  71  50 /  10 100  10   0
DEQ  78  44  65  42 /  90 100   0   0
TXK  80  49  65  48 /  70 100   0   0
ELD  81  50  68  44 /  40 100   0   0
TYR  82  48  64  51 /  90  80   0   0
GGG  83  48  66  48 /  80  90   0   0
LFK  85  51  71  50 /  70  90   0   0

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...26

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
844 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-OKZ077-TXZ096-
097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167-051345-
Sevier-Howard-Little River-Hempstead-Nevada-Miller-Lafayette-
Columbia-Union-Caddo-Bossier-Webster-Claiborne-Lincoln-De Soto-
Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Ouachita-Sabine-Natchitoches-Winn-Grant-
Caldwell-La Salle-McCurtain-Bowie-Franklin-Titus-Camp-Morris-Cass-
Wood-Upshur-Marion-Smith-Gregg-Harrison-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola-
Nacogdoches-Shelby-Angelina-San Augustine-
844 AM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south central Arkansas,
southwest Arkansas, north central Louisiana, northwest Louisiana,
southeast Oklahoma, east Texas and northeast Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely to begin affecting the
region late this afternoon and continue through the evening and
overnight hours. This threat will occur along a frontal boundary
that will shift east across the region with very warm and unstable
air ahead of the front along with increasing shear. Damaging winds,
hail, and tornadoes will all be possible. A few particularly strong
and significant tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially across the
western half of the region to include Southeast Oklahoma, East Texas
and the adjacent areas of Southwest Arkansas and Northwest Louisiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon through the
overnight hours.

19

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
831 PM CDT FRI NOV 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0707 PM     TORNADO          2 E NAPLES              33.21N 94.65W
11/04/2022                   CASS               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            CONSIDERABLE TREES UPROOTED AND/OR SNAPPED
            NEAR NAPLES AND JUST EAST OF NAPLES IN
            EXTREME NORTHWEST CASS COUNTY. TORNADO
            DEBRIS SIGNATURE CORRELATES TO DAMAGE BEING
            A RESULT OF A TORNADO ACROSS THIS AREA.

&&

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
834 PM CDT FRI NOV 4 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0725 PM     TORNADO          9 SSE DE KALB           33.38N 94.56W
11/04/2022                   BOWIE              TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIDESPREAD TREES DOWNED NEAR AND JUST SOUTH
            OF THE I-30 CORRIDOR SOUTH AND WEST OF NEW
            BOSTON. TORNADO DEBRIS SIGNATURE CORRELATES
            TO THE DAMAGE BEING A RESULT OF A TORNADO.

&&

13

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
858 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

ARZ070-071-LAZ001-002-TXZ112-126-138-050245-
Lafayette AR-Miller AR-Bossier LA-Caddo LA-Harrison TX-Cass TX-
Marion TX-
858 PM CDT Fri Nov 4 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Miller and
southwestern Lafayette Counties, northwestern Caddo and northwestern
Bossier Parishes, eastern Marion, southeastern Cass and northeastern
Harrison Counties through 945 PM CDT...

At 858 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Bivins to near Jefferson to near Marshall.
Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Shreveport, Bossier City, Marshall, Vivian, Blanchard, Benton, Plain
Dealing, Oil City, Mooringsport, Bradley, Hosston, Rodessa, Belcher,
Ida, Gilliam, Bivins, Smithland, Ravanna, McLeod and Brightstar.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for southwestern
Arkansas...northwestern Louisiana...and northeastern Texas.

&&

LAT...LON 3324 9349 3299 9353 3255 9367 3244 9446
      3273 9432 3308 9418
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 239DEG 36KT 3302 9417 3277 9427 3251 9441

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

44