Tornado Warning 1, NWS Springfield, MO

197 
WWUS53 KSGF 070223
SVSSGF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
823 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

MOC213-070232-
/O.CAN.KSGF.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220307T0245Z/
Taney MO-
823 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

...THE TORNADO WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TANEY COUNTY IS CANCELLED...
    
The tornadic thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 200 AM CST for southwestern
Missouri.

LAT...LON 3664 9277 3676 9251 3656 9252 3653 9277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 239DEG 48KT 3663 9270 

$$

MOC153-070245-
/O.CON.KSGF.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220307T0245Z/
Ozark MO-
823 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 845 PM CST FOR WESTERN
OZARK COUNTY...
    
At 822 PM CST, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
was located 10 miles northwest of Price Place, or 18 miles north of
Bull Shoals, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

Locations impacted include...
Bull Shoals Lake...               Theodosia...
Sundown...                        Long Run...
Isabella...                       

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3664 9277 3676 9251 3656 9252 3653 9277
TIME...MOT...LOC 0222Z 239DEG 48KT 3663 9270 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN

$$

Wise

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
544 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

...AVIATION UPDATE...

Key Messages:

1. Strong to severe storms possible this evening.

2. Heavy rain with the potential for localized flooding this
   evening into early Monday.

3. Much colder to end the work week and begin the weekend.
  Potential for winter weather.

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon and Evening)
Issued at 100 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

An upper level trough is currently located over the Rocky
Mountains over the southwestern U.S. The trough will move east
into the Central Plains this evening then across the area tonight
into early Monday.

A surface cold front moved south through the region last night
across stalled across northern Arkansas into southeastern
Missouri. A cooler and drier air mass at the surface moves in
north of the front, with a warm and more moist air mass south of
the front. Surface dew points in the 60s are likely clipping or
just south of far south central Missouri. The front that moved
through the area last night, was just at the surface as the mid
level front remains north of the area as 850mb temperatures are in
the 9 to 10C range.

As the trough moves east into the plains Surface low pressure will
move north east across Arkansas into southern Missouri this
evening. As the surface low moves north a warm front will move
north with dewpoints in the 60s moving into far southern
Missouri, generally along and southeast of a Branson to Eminence
Missouri line.

As this occurs instability will increase but still remain modest
with MLCAPE values generally 400 to 800 J/kg southeast of the
Branson to Eminence line this evening. North of this line surface
based instability will be harder to come by, but with the front
last night only being at the surface some uncapped MUCAPE will be
in place. Low level shear will be weaker this afternoon, but as
the trough moves east and the low level jet increases low level
shear will increase this evening, as the instability also
increases.

Lift is already starting to move into the area, there is still a
weak cap in place but some scattered storms are starting to
develop across northern Arkansas into southern Missouri are
starting to occur. This activity will be elevated in nature and
not expecting much severe with it. As the trough and surface low
move towards the area early this evening, the cap will weaken as
low scale lift moves over the region. Expected discrete cells to
develop in the warm sector in northern Arkansas and some of this
activity may move into and clip portions of far southern and south
central Missouri Early this evening. All modes of severe storms
will be possible with this scattered activity. As the front moves
east expect a broken line and line segments to develop along the
front. There could be some embedded supercell within these lines
generally along and southeast of the Branson to Eminence MO line.
Damaging straight line winds to 70 mph will be the main risk with
the strongest storms. Hail to the size of quarters will also be
possible in the strongest updrafts. With low level shear
increasing there will also be the risk for a few tornadoes again
mainly along and southeast of a Branson to Eminence Missouri line
this evening.

North of the warm front, storms are still expected but will be
elevated in nature. Instability again will not be overly strong
but with the lift significant for storms to develop. The
atmosphere is also not be overly warm, so it would not take an
overly strong updraft to get some hail. Therefore, some isolated
hail of penny to quarter size hail will be possible with these
elevated storms south of Highway 54.

The severe risk will generally between 5 and 10pm this evening.

.LONG TERM...(tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

Tonight-Early Monday: Much colder air moves in behind this system
tonight into Monday. Some light snow or freezing drizzle will be
possible early Monday morning near the Highway 54 corridor, but
very minimal to no impacts are expected due to the expectation for
very light precip and warmer ground temperatures.

Monday-Wednesday: Generally zonal flow aloft will keep Gulf
Moisture at bay, leading to dry weather during this period. High
temperatures will gradually warm from the 40s on Monday into the
50s by Wednesday.

Thursday-Saturday: Precipitation chances return from Thursday into
Friday as an upper level trough digs across the central CONUS. The
WPC Cluster Analysis and model ensembles show uncertainty in the
timing of this system, so exact details are hard to come by with
the current forecast. However, the EFI shows a strong signal for
much colder temperatures on Thursday night into Saturday morning,
so it is possible that some wintry precip could develop on
Thursday night into Friday. NBM probabilities for >1" of snowfall
is 50-80%, >2" is 30-60%, and >4" is 10-30%...all highest over the
northern half of the CWA. This system will need to be closely
monitored with future forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

Convection continues to develop across the area, with showers and
thunderstorms expected through the evening. There is potential
for strong to severe storms, mainly at KBBG.

Expect lowered ceilings to persist after the rain, with eventual
clearing from west to east Monday afternoon and evening.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...Flood Watch through late tonight for MOZ082-083-092-096>098-
     104>106.

KS...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...Rothstein/Titus
AVIATION...Titus

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
313 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-072115-
Bourbon-Crawford-Cherokee-Benton-Morgan-Miller-Maries-Vernon-
St. Clair-Hickory-Camden-Pulaski-Phelps-Barton-Cedar-Polk-Dallas-
Laclede-Texas-Dent-Jasper-Dade-Greene-Webster-Wright-Newton-
Lawrence-Christian-Douglas-Howell-Shannon-McDonald-Barry-Stone-
Taney-Ozark-Oregon-
313 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of the Missouri
Ozarks and extreme southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Weather hazards expected...

  Elevated tornado risk.
  Limited hail risk.
  Elevated thunderstorm wind damage risk.
  Elevated lightning risk.
  Elevated excessive rainfall risk.
  Limited non thunderstorm wind risk.

DISCUSSION...

Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue to
expand across the area this afternoon into early tonight. Heavy
rain will lead to a localized flash flooding risk with this
system, particularly for areas southeast of Interstate 44.

Strong to severe storms will also be possible mainly during the
5pm to midnight timeframe, primarily south of Interstate 44. Some
storms could become strong to severe, with damaging wind gusts to
70 mph, hail to the size of quarters, and a tornado or two as the
primary threats.

Some lingering light snow or freezing drizzle will be possible
along and north of the Highway 54 corridor tonight into early
Monday. However, very minimal to no accumulations or impacts are
expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Unseasonably cold temperatures will be possible behind a cold
front by Thursday night into Friday. Wintry precipitation is also
possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed later this afternoon through this
evening for locations south of Interstate 44.

&&

More detailed information can be accessed at:
http://www.weather.gov/sgf/sitrep

This product in graphical format...along with other weather...
hydrological and climate information...at
http://www.weather.gov/sgf

Titus

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
401 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

MOZ094-062230-
Lawrence MO-
401 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of central Lawrence
County through 430 PM CST...

At 400 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southwest of Mount Vernon, moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Mount Vernon...                   Miller...
Stotts City...                    Halltown...
Freistatt...                      Hoberg...
Chesapeake...

This includes Interstate 44 between mile markers 33 and 58.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3697 9399 3704 9406 3708 9406 3729 9384
      3728 9361 3715 9361
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 225DEG 45KT 3706 9394

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Perez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
427 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

MOZ079-089-090-062300-
Polk MO-Greene MO-Dade MO-
427 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Polk,
northwestern Greene and southeastern Dade Counties through 500 PM
CST...

At 427 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ash Grove, or 13 miles northwest of Republic, moving northeast at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Willard...                        Ash Grove...
Walnut Grove...                   Pleasant Hope...
Morrisville...                    Sacville...
Cave Springs...                   Brighton...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 9361 3728 9361 3729 9375 3757 9341
      3743 9322
TIME...MOT...LOC 2227Z 228DEG 43KT 3726 9365

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Perez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
505 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

MOZ078-079-089-062330-
Cedar MO-Polk MO-Dade MO-
505 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Cedar,
northwestern Polk and north central Dade Counties through 530 PM
CST...

At 505 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles north of Greenfield, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Stockton Lake...                  Stockton State Park...
Pomme de Terre Lake...            Stockton...
Humansville...                    Fair Play...
Flemington...                     Arcola...
Umber View Heights...             Bearcreek...
Masters...                        Cane Hill...
Arnica...                         Neola...
Dunnegan...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3780 9321 3747 9386 3751 9397 3783 9368
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 229DEG 48KT 3752 9386

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Perez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
711 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

MOZ091-095-096-070145-
Douglas MO-Webster MO-Christian MO-
711 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Webster,
northwestern Douglas and eastern Christian Counties through 745 PM
CST...

At 711 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Sparta, or 11 miles east of Highlandville, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Sparta...                         Oldfield...
Garrison...                       Chadwick...
Elkhead...                        Bruner...
Keltner...                        Dogwood...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CST for southwestern
Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 9304 3711 9268 3707 9268 3681 9304
      3682 9321
TIME...MOT...LOC 0111Z 228DEG 49KT 3688 9309

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Perez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Springfield MO
753 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

MOZ102-070230-
Barry MO-
753 PM CST Sun Mar 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Barry
County through 830 PM CST...

At 753 PM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Purdy, or near Cassville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cassville...                      Purdy...
Jenkins...                        Mcdowell...
Wheelerville...                   Madry...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3682 9392 3693 9373 3692 9361 3683 9361
      3682 9360 3681 9358 3675 9358 3665 9383
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 237DEG 36KT 3677 9383

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Wise