Special Marine Warning 79, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
352 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves through today bringing showers and thunderstorms.
The front stalls offshore Tuesday and Wednesday. Another cold front
approaches Thursday and moves slowly over the area through Friday.
High pressure builds over the region thereafter. Associated
high pressure conditions expected Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The excessive heat will come to an end for all areas into this
evening. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect for much of the area
until 10 PM.

As a closed low continues to spin across much of eastern Canada,
stronger shortwave energy along with mid to upper level flow will
help amplify the trough some across the Northeast through tonight.
This will result in height falls occurring and therefore the heat
will continue to be knocked down. A trailing cold front associated
with low pressure well to our north will gradually work its way
across our area tonight into Tuesday before stalling just off the
coast and trailing back near Delmarva. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to move through ahead of the front and more associated with
a pre-frontal trough. The Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat
Advisories will be cancelled early as ongoing showers and
thunderstorms will bring relief.

A mesoanalysis indicates MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg across much of the
region given a warm/hot and very moist boundary layer. The main area
potentially having a greater chance of severe thunderstorms is
across central to especially southern NJ, far southeastern PA and
Delmarva. A mesoanalysis also shows stronger shear overspreading the
area and this will support organizing convection. Some increasing
lift will arrive as well associated with an incoming upper-level
trough and surface cold front. The severe thunderstorm risk looks to
be scattered at this point. Some discrete convection is expected
given the shear parameters, however line segments or some clusters
should evolve with time. Damaging straight-line winds are the main
threats especially from any organized clusters or line segments and
their associated water-loaded downdrafts. Some hail cannot be ruled
out with the stronger cores given the ample instability in place.
The main convective organization may become more focused just south
and east of Philadelphia later this afternoon into early this
evening where the greatest instability should be in place. Given
plenty of moisture in place (precipitable water near 2 inches),
convection will produce torrential downpours which could lead to
some brief flooding.

The bulk of the convection is expected to end by late this evening,
however some could linger for a while mainly in southern NJ and
Delmarva given the slow arrival of the cold front. Otherwise the sky
should clear or partially clear up north with more clouds lingering
farther south. Low-level drying will gradually work in from the
northwest, although it will tend to remain muggy tonight across the
central to especially southern areas. Where clouds dissipate and
rain occurred, local fog cannot be ruled out.

As we go through Tuesday, the flow aloft turns more zonal as a
persistent upper-level trough remains from central to eastern
Canada. Given this, the cold front should stall out near or just off
our coast but probably trail back near Delmarva. Some strung out
vorticity is forecast to be moving through especially across the
southern half of the region. As a result, cannot rule out a few
showers and thunderstorms developing primarily in the afternoon
across parts of Delmarva to perhaps far southern New Jersey.
Maintained some slight chance to low-end PoPs as a result.
Otherwise, a decent amount of cloud cover especially the mid to high
level variety should be around given the more zonal flow and more
organized convection to our south. There could be more sunshine
across the far north due to drier air. Speaking of dry air, dew
points will drop into the 60s and 50s for much of the area with the
driest low-level air near and north of Philadelphia. It will be a
cooler day which is a much needed break from the relentless
excessive heat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
For Tuesday night, maintained chc PoPs with thunder mainly for
southern portions of New Jersey and most of Delaware. Guidance
is depicting a weak shortwave interacting with the stalled
boundary to our south and thus rain chances remain. Overnight
lows could reach 60 in the Poconos and near 70 elsewhere. Low
level winds look relatively strong during this timeframe, so any
showers or thunderstorms that do develop could bring down some
stronger gusts.

The chance of showers looks to linger into Wednesday as the front
moves further north and flow turns southwesterly. Temperatures and
dew points will to rise again as well, though dew points shouldn't
rise to extremely oppressive values as forecast soundings depict a
pretty deep and dry boundary layer through the afternoon which
should lead to dew points mixing out. Guidance has struggled with
this over the course of the past week or two, but with the moisture
advection noted, decided to stay pretty close to NBM values. Highs
Wednesday will be in the mid to upper 80s with dew points again
approaching 70 degrees. Heat index values do not appear to be a
concern.

For Thursday, a stacked upper level low and associated trough will
begin to pivot across southern Canada and drag a surface front along
with it. Guidance indicates that this front will not be in a hurry
to move into or through the area, so the pattern looks unsettled
through the latter half of the week. There may be some scattered
rain showers on Thursday with the better chance in the afternoon,
but at this point the best upper support is progged to remain to our
north with the front off to the west so widespread precipitation
does not appear too likely. Models are still spread on the amount of
moisture available ahead of this front, though the slower moving
boundary could provide some much needed rain. Otherwise, Thursday
looks to feature a return of the hot and humid conditions, though
this should be short lived. Highs will likely reach back into the
90s for some spots with dew points remaining in the upper 60s and
low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
An upper level trough situated to the northwest will continue to
gradually move eastward through Saturday Night as a ridge to our
south builds during the same timeframe. A cold front associated
with the trough moves slowly through the area Thursday Night
through Friday Night as consequence of the trough's movement.
This will allow for the possibility of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across much of the region through the Friday
Afternoon/Friday Night timeframe. While the trough moves
eastward and then eventually lifts out away from the Northeast
US around Saturday Night, a ridge builds to our northwest and
north in it's place as well. Surface high pressure builds in
Saturday and its associated conditions should remain over the
region through Sunday Night. Conditions should remain fairly
seasonable with more mild temperatures and dew points expected
during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Rest of this afternoon...VFR ceilings. Some showers and
thunderstorms track from west to east across the area. Brief
restrictions and gusty winds are expected with the showers and
especially stronger storms. Southwesterly winds 10-15 knots with
gusts up to 25 knots at times. Low confidence with the details.

Tonight...Showers and thunderstorms from about the PHL area south
and east will continue to shift eastward during the evening. Brief
restrictions and gusty winds will occur. There could be a period of
MVFR ceilings overnight mainly at MIV and ACY. Southwest winds
diminishing to around 5 knots and becoming west to north-northwest
to locally light and variable. Low confidence regarding sustained
MVFR ceilings.

Tuesday...VFR. A shower or thunderstorm is possible in the afternoon
south of ILG to ACY. Northwesterly winds 10 knots or less, becoming
west to southwest. Moderate confidence.

Wednesday... Predominantly VFR. A few scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible. Southerly wind 5-10 kt. Moderate confidence.

Thursday... Predominantly VFR. A few scattered showers and
thunderstorms possible. Southwesterly wind 5-10 kt with gusts to 15
kt. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
The Small Craft Advisory remains in effect through tonight for the
Atlantic coastal waters of Delaware and New Jersey. The gusty
southwesterly winds are expected to diminish though early this
evening, then eventually shift to the west and north late tonight
and especially Tuesday. Seas however will take some time to subside
below 5 feet. Opted to cancel the Small Craft Advisory for lower
Delaware Bay as the winds have remained below 25 knots. Some gusty
thunderstorms are probable through this evening.

Wednesday... Sub SCA conditions likely. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Southwesterly winds 5-10 kt. Seas 2-3 feet.

Thursday... Sub SCA conditions likely. A chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Southwesterly wind 10-15 kt. Seas 2-3 feet.

Rip Currents...

Through tonight, A gusty southwesterly wind will diminish through
this evening. This in combination of elevated waves is resulting in
a MODERATE risk for rip currents for the New Jersey and Delaware
beaches.

For Tuesday, winds and waves will be less but a MODERATE risk for
rip currents remains for the New Jersey and Delaware beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ450>455.

&&

Synopsis...Wunderlin
Near Term...Gorse
Short Term...Brudy
Long Term...Wunderlin
Aviation...Brudy/Gorse
Marine...Brudy/Gorse

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1208 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

NJZ008-010-251630-
Morris NJ-Somerset NJ-
1208 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Morris
and north central Somerset Counties through 1230 PM EDT...

At 1208 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Mendham, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Morristown, Dover, Madison, Florham Park, East Hanover, Lincoln Park,
Chatham, Boonton, Wharton, Rockaway, Morris Plains, Mendham, Mountain
Lakes, Peapack And Gladstone, Chester, Victory Gardens, Far Hills,
Succasunna, Succasunna-Kenvil and Parsippany.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 80 in New Jersey between mile markers 39 and 48.
 Interstate 287 in New Jersey between mile markers 27 and 48.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4091 7434 4088 7434 4086 7432 4083 7433
      4079 7437 4076 7438 4075 7436 4072 7439
      4068 7446 4069 7467 4087 7470 4094 7428
      4090 7427
TIME...MOT...LOC 1607Z 264DEG 28KT 4078 7461

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Iovino

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
508 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

MDZ015-019-252200-
Queen Anne's MD-Talbot MD-
508 PM EDT Mon Jul 25 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Talbot
and southwestern Queen Anne's Counties through 600 PM EDT...

At 508 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shady Side, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Talbot, St. Michaels, Oxford, Chester, Grasonville, Tilghman Island,
Copperville, Queenstown and Stevensville South.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
eastern and northeastern Maryland.

&&

LAT...LON 3886 7626 3879 7620 3883 7619 3897 7625
      3891 7624 3896 7631 3884 7637 3884 7638
      3897 7635 3901 7612 3866 7613 3868 7621
      3875 7624 3871 7628 3878 7629 3876 7632
      3867 7634 3877 7638
TIME...MOT...LOC 2108Z 270DEG 20KT 3884 7646

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

BAH