Special Weather Statement, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
346 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Sunday Night)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

Unsettled weather pattern will continue through Sunday night as
result of a benign surface and upper level pattern continuing
across mid state region. Isolated to scattered mainly diurnally
driven showers and thunderstorms will be norm with at times
numerous showers and thunderstorms being experienced also
for remainder of these afternoon hours today and again on Sunday
afternoon for locations generally east of I-65. When diurnal
influences begin to diminish, showers and thunderstorms will
start coming to an end. This should be generally as evening hours
tonight progress with showers and thunderstorms once again
developing again as daylight hours progress on Sunday. Within this
very unsettled weather pattern, it is of particular note that
very little if any atmospheric wind shear is expected. As a
result, developing convection will generally be quite vertical,
slow moving, and thus bringing the potential with it of some of
the stronger showers and thunderstorms bringing heavy rainfall to
certain locations that could result in at least local ponding of
water on area roadways, minor flooding, etc. Can not rule out the
stronger downdrafts associated with the stronger storms producing
strong to damaging winds at times. As mentioned before, most
shower and thunderstorms activity will be diurnally driven in
nature. However, when it comes to location development outflow
boundaries from current and previous days convection along with
local orographic effects will likely play a key role in
particular convective development also. For a better set of words,
atmosphere just trying to cool itself off when the day starts
getting too hot. As for temperatures, mild lows in low to mid 70s,
upper 60s to around 70 Cumberland Plateau Region expected tonight
and Sunday night with muggy overnight conditions continuing.
Highs on Sunday will be near seasonal normal values with humid
conditions continuing.

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through next Saturday)
Issued at 346 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

More unsettled weather pattern through at least day on Wednesday
is continued to be expected across mid state region as benign
surface and upper level pattern continues across our area. Pretty
much a repeat of the short term period when it comes to
temperature and humidity values through Tuesday night. Pretty
much of a repeat of the short term period also through Tuesday
night when it comes to showers and thunderstorm chances and
possible location development and areal coverage.

Thankfully, a summertime cold front looks to push through mid
state as day progresses on Wednesday. As Wednesday night into
Thursday progresses also, upper level ridging influences across
western contingous U.S. will slowly shift eastward and become
even stronger, ushering in northwesterly upper level flow to our
area. So it is looking like this unsettled weather pattern will
come to an end as Thursday into first part of upcoming weekend
progresses. As those days progress, expecting dry weather, mostly
clear skies, and temperatures a few degrees below seasonal normal
values.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

The weather pattern will continue for the next 24+ hours.
Standard afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The best
chances will be BNA/MQY/CSV but have included a tempo for all
sites. Any storms that do impact a terminal will have the
potential for heavy rainfall. Coverage of storms will decrease
after sunset with some broken high clouds. Winds will be
southerly. Don/t expect too much in the way of early morning
fog...except for possible at CSV from 07/10Z to 07/13Z with MVFR
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  91  73  90 /  40  60  20  40
Clarksville    72  91  71  90 /  30  40  20  30
Crossville     68  83  68  82 /  40  70  20  60
Columbia       72  91  72  90 /  40  60  20  40
Cookeville     70  86  71  85 /  50  70  20  50
Jamestown      69  83  69  83 /  50  60  20  60
Lawrenceburg   71  89  71  88 /  30  50  20  40
Murfreesboro   72  90  72  89 /  40  60  20  40
Waverly        72  91  72  91 /  30  40  20  30

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JB Wright
LONG TERM....JB Wright
AVIATION.....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
246 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-070800-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
246 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
114 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

TNZ007-008-061830-
Robertson TN-Sumner TN-
114 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Sumner
and northeastern Robertson Counties through 130 PM CDT...

At 114 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Portland, or 18 miles northeast of Springfield, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Portland, Orlinda and Mitchellville.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 115 and 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8641 3652 8656 3662 8673 3665 8670
      3665 8659 3663 8657 3665 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 219DEG 15KT 3662 8659

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

FB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
119 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

TNZ008-061900-
Sumner TN-
119 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Sumner
County through 200 PM CDT...

At 118 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
White House, or 7 miles northwest of Gallatin, moving northeast at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Hendersonville, White House, Portland, Oak Grove and
Cottontown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8642 3664 8631 3660 8631 3634 8653
      3643 8669 3648 8664 3652 8664 3665 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 225DEG 26KT 3644 8658

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

FB

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
402 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

TNZ063>065-077>079-062200-
Cannon TN-Coffee TN-Grundy TN-De Kalb TN-Warren TN-White TN-
402 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern De Kalb,
Warren, Coffee, northwestern Grundy, southwestern White and eastern
Cannon Counties through 500 PM CDT...

At 402 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles southwest of Smithville to near
Tullahoma. Movement was east at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
McMinnville, Manchester, Tullahoma, Altamont, Morrison, Centertown,
Viola, Hillsboro, Rock Island State Park, Summitville and Arnold AFB.

Subterranea Festival 2022 will also be impacted.

This includes Interstate 24 between mile markers 104 and 126.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3532 8600 3534 8603 3536 8615 3534 8620
      3534 8626 3535 8624 3537 8628 3538 8625
      3539 8628 3541 8625 3546 8625 3592 8596
      3592 8551 3580 8557 3581 8560 3578 8561
      3579 8560 3576 8561 3576 8560 3531 8583
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 268DEG 9KT 3587 8592 3540 8622

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Barnwell