Severe Thunderstorm Warning 146, NWS Nashville, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
103 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1124 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

Leaned toward a CONSShort/HRRR model blend through afternoon
hours today as both initialized well and depict realistic weather
pattern development of diurnal driven isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms, with numerous showers and thunderstorms
possibly developing across Cumberland Plateau Region during mid
afternoon hours. Current regional temperature trends supporting
afternoon high temperatures at least a couple of degrees warmer
than previously advertised, and updated suite of forecast products
to reflect this. Tweaked hourly temperature, dewpoint, sky
condition, and wind speed/direction grids blending them with
previously forecasted hourly gridded late morning through early
afternoon hours. Remainder of forecast continues to be on track.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

The unsettled pattern continues for the next several days. There's
not a lot to mention as far as forcing mechanisms besides diurnal
influences, outflow boundaries, and fairly deep moisture
profiles. Storm activity today and Sunday should be mainly
diurnal in nature. Pwat values will be in the 1.8"-2.0" range
which means storms will produce some heavy rain which could
lead to some localized minor flooding. Temperatures today and
Sunday will be in the mid 80s to lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Saturday)
Issued at 229 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

The upper flow over the area will remain weak and nebulous through
Tuesday night before the ridge out west becomes more amplified and
our upper flow becomes northwesterly. A weak surface front will
move through Middle Tennessee late Wednesday or early Thursday.
Behind the front, moisture profiles dry out which will knock down
the rain chances Thursday afternoon through next weekend. Highs
next week look to be seasonable in the 80s to lower 90s and
overnight lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Behind the front,
humidity values will be slightly more tolerable Thursday night and
through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

The weather pattern will continue for the next 24+ hours.
Standard afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms. The best
chances will be BNA/MQY/CSV but have included a tempo for all
sites. Any storms that do impact a terminal will have the
potential for heavy rainfall. Coverage of storms will decrease
after sunset with some broken high clouds. Winds will be
southerly. Don/t expect too much in the way of early morning
fog...except for possible at CSV from 07/10Z to 07/13Z with MVFR
possible.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville      73  91  73  91 /  40  40  20  50
Clarksville    71  91  71  91 /  30  30  10  40
Crossville     68  83  68  83 /  30  50  20  60
Columbia       72  91  72  91 /  30  40  10  50
Cookeville     71  85  71  86 /  40  50  20  60
Jamestown      69  83  69  84 /  30  50  20  60
Lawrenceburg   72  89  71  89 /  30  40  20  50
Murfreesboro   72  91  72  90 /  40  40  20  50
Waverly        72  91  72  92 /  20  20  10  40

&&

.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE.......JB Wright
SHORT TERM...Reagan
LONG TERM....Reagan
AVIATION.....12

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Nashville TN
246 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

TNZ005>011-023>034-056>066-075-077>080-093>095-070800-
Stewart-Montgomery-Robertson-Sumner-Macon-Clay-Pickett-Houston-
Humphreys-Dickson-Cheatham-Davidson-Wilson-Trousdale-Smith-Jackson-
Putnam-Overton-Fentress-Perry-Hickman-Lewis-Williamson-Maury-
Marshall-Rutherford-Cannon-De Kalb-White-Cumberland-Bedford-Coffee-
Warren-Grundy-Van Buren-Wayne-Lawrence-Giles-
246 AM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

10

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
108 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

TNZ008-009-028>030-061900-
Wilson TN-Trousdale TN-Sumner TN-Macon TN-Smith TN-
108 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Smith, eastern
Sumner, northeastern Wilson, southwestern Macon and Trousdale
Counties through 200 PM CDT...

At 107 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Gallatin to near Gordonsville. Movement
was east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Carthage, Hartsville, Westmoreland, Gordonsville, Hickman,
South Carthage, Bethpage, Dixon Springs, Pleasant Shade, Bledsoe
Creek State Park and Dickerson Chapel Recreation Area.

This includes Interstate 40 between mile markers 249 and 263.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3646 8596 3620 8583 3612 8590 3612 8591
      3610 8592 3611 8593 3610 8595 3611 8596
      3610 8597 3610 8598 3609 8599 3641 8648
      3658 8633
TIME...MOT...LOC 1807Z 266DEG 18KT 3641 8637 3617 8598

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

FB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
114 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

TNZ007-008-061830-
Robertson TN-Sumner TN-
114 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Sumner
and northeastern Robertson Counties through 130 PM CDT...

At 114 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Portland, or 18 miles northeast of Springfield, moving northeast at
15 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Portland, Orlinda and Mitchellville.

This includes Interstate 65 between mile markers 115 and 120.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8641 3652 8656 3662 8673 3665 8670
      3665 8659 3663 8657 3665 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 1814Z 219DEG 15KT 3662 8659

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

FB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Nashville TN
119 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

TNZ008-061900-
Sumner TN-
119 PM CDT Sat Aug 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Sumner
County through 200 PM CDT...

At 118 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
White House, or 7 miles northwest of Gallatin, moving northeast at
20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gallatin, Hendersonville, White House, Portland, Oak Grove and
Cottontown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3665 8642 3664 8631 3660 8631 3634 8653
      3643 8669 3648 8664 3652 8664 3665 8651
TIME...MOT...LOC 1818Z 225DEG 26KT 3644 8658

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

FB

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