Special Weather Statement, NWS Twin Cities, MN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN
546 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

.UPDATED for 06Z aviation discussion...
Issued at 536 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

* KEY MESSAGES: (optional)

- Severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening from
  southwest and south central Minnesota through east central
  Minnesota and into west central Wisconsin. Although isolated severe
  weather is possible prior to 7 PM, most of the potential for severe
  storms will be from 7 PM onward.

- Strong winds are expected Thursday into Thursday night, with gusts
  of 40 to 50 mph possible, especially along and south of the
  Minnesota River valley.

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows clouds locked in
across the area, with the nearest clearing from southeast South
Dakota into western Iowa. Surface low of around 985 mb was analyzed
over eastern Nebraska. This low will lift northeast through this
evening, and should bring the warm frontal boundary into far southern
and southeast Minnesota after 00Z. Instability will be somewhat
limited, and will be primarily elevated, although the south/southeast
portion of the area could see some storms rooted in the boundary
layer which would enhance tornado potential there. In addition, the
eventual evolution into more of a QLCS structure east of I-35 after
02Z could favor the development of low-level mesovortices and short-
tracked tornadoes and/or enhanced areas of wind damage. Otherwise,
hail looks to be the primary concern over most of the area, including
the Twin Cities metro, where forecast soundings from the RAP and HRRR
favor things remaining elevated. Even with somewhat limited
instability, low-level and deep layer/effective shear will remain
high through the evening, favoring rotating updrafts in discrete
elevated storms, further enhancing the large hail potential. The
forecast 0-3 km bulk shear fields across the southern portion of the
area this evening favor greater than 30 kt of shear with any
potential storm/line motion, which is why mesovortices (as mentioned
above) would be favored if/when a QLCS structure evolves. Meaningful
convection should push east of the area by around 05-06Z, with some
lingering showers possible, mainly over the north.

The surface low will occlude from Minnesota into Wisconsin on
Wednesday, with the bulk of the lingering precipitation staying
north/east of the forecast area, although some PoPs are still
warranted (particularly north of I-94). Cold advection increases
Wednesday night into Thursday, along with the pressure gradient.
Winds look to significantly increase Thursday into Thursday night,
with gusts to 50 mph a possibility (especially from west central into
south central Minnesota). Included gusts above 40 mph for much of the
area Thursday afternoon/evening, and subsequent forecasts should be
able to refine things, with the definite possibility of a wind
advisory being needed at some point.

Medium range guidance is in good agreement after Thursday, with
unseasonably cool temperatures continuing through the weekend,
although precipitation chances are limited and light through that
time. Return flow will precede the next system of note Sunday
afternoon/evening, with sufficient moisture and lift for rain/snow
across the area. It looks to cool off a bit behind this system, with
any significant warming holding off until after the current seven day
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Tue Apr 12 2022

Areas of MVFR/IFR developing this evening as thunderstorms lift up
from Iowa and move across Minnesota and Wisconsin. These storms could
be severe with strong winds and large hail. Expect a strong wind
shift as well with a surface low moving through. Winds will start out
easterly this evening, and then take on a more westerly direction
with strong gusts near 30kts on Wednesday after the surface low
passes through.

KMSP...
No significant changes from the previous forecast. Thunderstorms are
expected later this evening with MVFR/IFR clouds developing as well.
These storms could produce strong winds or large hail. Winds will be
easterly, and then switch northeast and to the north tonight,
eventually becoming westerly on Wednesday. Clouds should lift towards
VFR by the late afternoon and evening.

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/
Thu...IFR/MVFR chc -RASN. Wind W 20-25 kts, gusts 40-45 kts.
Fri...VFR. Wind W 20-25 kts, gusts 35-40 kts.
Sat...VFR. Wind WNW 10-15 kts, gusts 25kts.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
&&

DISCUSSION...WFO MPX
AVIATION...JRB

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