Special Weather Statement, NWS Mobile, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
722 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...Numerous to widespread showers and storms continue
to move into the region from the west as a cold front approaches
the area. Some storms are expected to be strong to severe.
Current satellite and observations show widespread low end
MVFR/IFR ceilings across the area, with localized LIFR conditions.
Generally MVFR visibilities are expected to persist at the
terminals through the morning hours, with drops to IFR/LIFR in
strong to severe storms. These conditions are expected to persist
through around 18z before gradually improving from the west as
storms move further east as the cold front approaches the
Mississippi/Alabama state line. LLWS may be also be concern
through the morning, but currently expecting this feature to
remain north of the terminals with LLWS of ~35-40kt at ~15-20kft.
Winds will be southerly through the morning becoming more
southwesterly by the afternoon ranging between 15-20kts with
gusts up to 30kts (some higher possible) through the day today.
Strong to severe storms can bring locally variable winds to areas
where they cross. Conditions will be monitored and TAFs will be
updated if persistence and observations warrant amendments. JEH/88

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 459 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022/

NEAR TERM MESOSCALE UPDATE...A low pressure system located over
Oklahoma early this morning will take on a negative tilt as it lifts
northeastward toward Missouri through the morning hours. The
associated cold front will move eastward across the Mississippi
Valley region by midday today. A 90-100 kt 500 mb jet streak is
expected to round the base of the trough and lift across northern
MS/AL this morning, placing our area in the favored placement of
ascent in the right entrance region of the jet. An organizing QLCS
will spread into southeast MS and interior southwest AL between 5
and 8 AM CDT this morning. A warm front will also lift northeastward
across the rest of our CWA through the remainder of this morning and
into early this afternoon. The airmass will become increasingly
unstable with MLCAPE values rising to 1500-2500 J/KG through the
morning hours in the wake of the passing warm front. The available
instability, along with increasing deep layer shear, steep mid level
lapse rates, and increasing low level storm relative helicity values
between 200-400 m2/s2 will support all modes of severe weather,
including quarter to golfball size hail, damaging winds in excess of
60 mph, and tornadoes as the convective line moves across our region
today. We do have concerns that favorable overlap of instability,
strong low level wind fields, and impressive low level curvature to
the hodographs could result in a strong tornado potential in our
area today. Heavy rainfall amounts of 1-2" and perhaps locally in
excess of 3-4" will be possible, especially over interior areas
today, which could result in a localized urban flooding or flash
flooding threat, but the overall flood threat looks to be marginal
considering dry antecedent conditions and localized nature of
excessive rainfall amounts. The severe threat will progress from
west to east, generally ending by early afternoon over the western
half of our area and late afternoon/early evening over our eastern
and southeastern zones. Surf heights increase to 4-6 feet along our
local beaches later this morning, so we will opt to issue a High
Surf Advisory during this time. A HIGH rip current risk will also be
in effect. /21

SHORT TERM /Saturday night Through Sunday night/...An active
near term transitions into a imperturbable short term with dry
conditions expected through the period as large scale subsidence
takes hold of the region. The trough mentioned in the near term
continues to exit the region on early Saturday night with ridging
beginning to build into the area from the west late Saturday night
and into early Sunday. Surface high pressure also begins to build
in from the west on Saturday night, and slides northeast into the
Appalachians by Sunday night. This will result in generally light
north-northwesterly surface winds on Saturday night gradually
becoming easterly by the end of the period.

As for temps, with clear skies and light north-northwest winds
Saturday night, lows will be a bit on the cool side in the wake of
the cold front with temps ranging from near 40 northwest of I-65,
to the mid 40s southeast. As ridging grabs hold of the area on
Sunday, highs climb into the low to mid 70s across the area under
mainly clear skies. Lows Monday night warm up a tad with mainly
mid 40s expected across inland areas, and upper 40s to low 50s
along the coast. Lastly, a Moderate risk of rip currents expected
Saturday night, becoming low by Sunday. JEH/88

EXTENDED TERM /Monday Through Thursday/...Another threat for severe
weather remains in the forecast for the middle part of the week.
Details concerning the next event will be ironed out as it gets
closer in time.

Dry, mild weather expected to kick off your work week as the local
area remains in zonal flow under the influence of weak ridging
aloft. A shortwave trough slides toward the Southern Plains and
deepens through the day on Monday. This shortwave nudges the ridge
further east and flow aloft turns southwesterly. There remains quite
a bit of uncertainty surrounding the evolution of this trough as we
head into the rest of the week. Down in the lower levels, a surface
high lifts out of the Southeast through the day on Monday and
onshore flow sets up across the area. A surface low develops over
the Southern Plains in response to the deepening trough aloft later
on Monday. A warm front will hover over the Gulf waters in the
morning hours on Tuesday and eventually lift onshore during the day
as the surface low lifts northeast. A cold front draped to the south
of the surface low should slide into the region sometime late
Tuesday through Wednesday. Note that the evolution of the surface
low and cold/warm fronts on Tuesday and Wednesday also hinge on the
upper level features. That said, there is the potential for severe
weather in the Tuesday evening through Wednesday timeframe with a
low level jet moving overhead, plenty of instability in the warm
sector, and plenty of shear overhead. In the wake of the cold front,
the area will dry out during the latter part of the week as a
surface high builds into the area. No major temperature swings in
the extended timeframe, although it might get a little chilly
late in the week behind the front. 07/mb

MARINE...A Small Craft Advisory is now in effect for all marine
areas through Saturday morning given strong southerly to
southwesterly expected as a cold front approaches the marine area
from the west. Following the SCA, a moderate northwesterly flow
will develops late tonight and into Saturday morning behind the
cold front, with the moderate offshore flow will then continuing
into Sunday morning. Winds are expected to be below SCA during
this timeframe, and likely even below SCEC criteria except for out
over the open Gulf waters. Early next week, a moderate to strong
easterly to southeasterly flow sets up in advance of the next
weather system that will be moving toward the marine area from the
west with SCA conditions likely returning Monday night into
Tuesday. JEH/88

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday
     for ALZ265-266.

FL...High Rip Current Risk through Saturday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 1 AM CDT Saturday
     for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ633>636.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ630>632.

     Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CDT Saturday for GMZ650-655-670-
     675.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
www.weather.gov/mob

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
840 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022

ALZ052-053-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-181445-
Clarke AL-Washington AL-Stone MS-Perry MS-Greene MS-Wayne MS-
George MS-
840 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Washington, central
Clarke, northwestern George, Perry, southeastern Wayne, Greene and
northern Stone Counties through 945 AM CDT...

At 840 AM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles northeast of
Buckatunna to 4 miles west of Maxie. Movement was northeast at 50
mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Wiggins, Chatom, Richton, Leakesville, Saint Stephens,
Wagarville, Leroy, Deer Park, Whatley, Tibbie, Beaumont, New Augusta,
Millry, McLain, State Line, Buckatunna and Fruitdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for southwestern
Alabama...and southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3091 8934 3091 8914 3123 8915 3128 8911
      3169 8844 3170 8763 3111 8838 3111 8843
      3108 8843 3099 8854 3079 8934
TIME...MOT...LOC 1340Z 237DEG 42KT 3159 8846 3096 8926

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
920 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 AM     TSTM WND DMG     BUTLER                  32.09N 88.22W
03/18/2022                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGER RELAYED REPORTS OF DOWNED
            TREES AND POWER OUTAGES IN BUTLER, AL. TIME
            ESTIMATED ON RADAR.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
928 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0610 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W RIDERWOOD           32.13N 88.36W
03/18/2022                   CHOCTAW            AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT RELAYED REPORTS OF
            TREES DOWN IN THE SCOTT MOUNTAIN AREA. TIME
            ESTIMATED ON RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
931 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022

ALZ261>266-181515-
Mobile Coastal AL-Baldwin Coastal AL-Baldwin Central AL-
Baldwin Inland AL-Mobile Central AL-Mobile Inland AL-
931 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Mobile and
western Baldwin Counties through 1015 AM CDT...

At 931 AM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 3 miles west of
Tillmans Corner to 7 miles southwest of Petit Bois Island. Movement
was northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Midtown Mobile, Prichard, Daphne, Tillmans Corner, Fairhope,
Saraland, Bay Minette, Theodore, Chickasaw, Spanish Fort, Grand Bay,
Bayou La Batre, Point Clear, Dauphin Island, Stapleton, I65 And I165,
Coden, Mobile Regional Airport, I65 And AL 225 and I65 And AL 158.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for southwestern
Alabama. A Tornado Watch also remains in effect until 200 PM CDT for
southwestern Alabama.

&&

LAT...LON 3025 8821 3025 8818 3036 8819 3039 8840
      3061 8841 3113 8762 3038 8784 3048 8794
      3075 8792 3065 8793 3074 8803 3075 8804
      3074 8805 3026 8818 3025 8808 3023 8831
TIME...MOT...LOC 1431Z 226DEG 58KT 3059 8823 3013 8859

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1002 AM CDT FRI MAR 18 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSE MORVIN            31.95N 87.98W
03/18/2022                   CLARKE             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF TREES DOWN ON HWY 69 NEAR MILE
            MARKER 39 IN THE MORVIN/CAMPBELL
            COMMUNITIES. TIME ESTIMATED ON RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Mobile AL
1017 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022

ALZ052-261-MSZ075-076-078-079-181600-
Washington AL-Mobile Inland AL-Stone MS-Perry MS-Greene MS-George MS-
1017 AM CDT Fri Mar 18 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northwestern Mobile,
southern Washington, George, southeastern Perry, southern Greene and
Stone Counties through 1100 AM CDT...

At 1016 AM CDT, National Weather Service doppler radar indicated
strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles west of
Leakesville to 9 miles west of Lucedale to 3 miles southwest of
Perkinston. Movement was northeast at 65 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wiggins, Citronelle, Lucedale, Leakesville, Perkinston, McHenry, Deer
Park and McLain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until noon CDT for southwestern
Alabama...and southeastern Mississippi.

&&

LAT...LON 3080 8932 3122 8866 3143 8792 3115 8812
      3088 8842 3068 8917 3068 8924 3065 8924
      3065 8933
TIME...MOT...LOC 1516Z 239DEG 55KT 3114 8865 3096 8875 3075 8918

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

MM