Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1045 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

.UPDATE...
The forecast remains on track today, with a few minor adjustments
made to PoPs and the dewpoint temperature over land. The overall
trend for today indicates a small chance for some showers along the
coast while the sea breeze develops, but the main setup will be a
later sea breeze boundary collision over the interior, with storms
capable of producing heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, small hail,
and gusty winds.

Based on current observations, the subtropical ridge axis is
situated right over the Treasure Coast, indicating that sea breeze
development will begin at the Treasure Coast first and will form
north along the rest of the coast later. The 10Z XMR sounding showed
a PWAT value of 1.85", indicating more moisture compared to the past
couple of days. The 500 mb temperature also was sitting at around
-9 C, which further supports the chance for small hail with storms.
DCAPE is not very high but water-loaded downdrafts will be capable
of producing strong wind gusts up to 55 mph in the stronger storms.
There is also light flow at the surface through the mid-levels,
meaning slower storm motions, once developed. Once the sea breeze
forms, it will begin pushing inland, with a likely boundary
collision with the West Coast sea breeze late afternoon into this
evening. Current model guidance indicates convection dying down
around 10-11pm. Conditions overnight will be dry.

Another hot day for the area, with temperatures climbing into the
low 90s along the coast and the mid 90s over the interior. With
greater moisture in the area, peak heat indices will be between 102-
107. Despite this being just below Heat Advisory criteria, remember
to stay dry and hydrated if outdoors, and take breaks inside air
conditioned spaces frequently. Also, never leave children or pets in
a vehicle unattended.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR expected outside of convection. Light W/SW flow will turn
onshore at coastal terminals btwn 16Z-18Z. TSRA will develop as the
sea breeze pushes inland with boundary collisions increasing storm
coverage at interior terminals aft 19Z. Will likely move TEMPO
groups forward an hour or so for the interior and maintain VCTS for
coastal terminals for now. There will be some push back to the east
coast so TEMPOs may be needed for some of the coastal terminals as
well.

&&

.MARINE...
Favorable boating conditions this morning through early afternoon.
Some isolated thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon as
the sea breeze develops and pushes inland. Winds will primarily be
out of the S-SE during the day at around 10 kt before shifting to
the SW overnight at 5-10 kt. Winds will be slightly higher behind
the sea breeze at 10-14 kt. Seas 2 ft, except locally higher due to
thunderstorm development.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  94  74  91  75 /  50  30  50  10
MCO  95  74  94  74 /  70  40  60  10
MLB  91  75  90  77 /  60  30  40  10
VRB  92  72  91  75 /  50  30  40  10
LEE  94  75  92  75 /  70  50  70  20
SFB  95  74  93  74 /  70  40  60  10
ORL  96  77  95  76 /  70  40  60  10
FPR  92  72  90  74 /  50  30  40  10

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

Tollefsen/Kelly

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
958 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-030000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
958 AM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered lightning storms will develop this afternoon as the east
coast sea breeze pushes inland. Boundary collisions over the
interior will produce the best chance for stronger storms with
activity lingering into the evening. Conditions are favorable for
wind gusts up to 55 mph, frequent lightning strikes, and heavy
rainfall. There is a better chance for some of the storms to push
back to the east coast but coverage will be highest west of I 95.
Move indoors if threatening weather approaches or if you hear
thunder.

.FLOOD IMPACT...
Due to slow storm motions and an increase in moisture, a quick 1 to
3 inches of rainfall will be possible, and produce could lead to
temporary flooding of urbanized and low lying areas.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Afternoon heat indices will generally peak from 102 to 107. If
outdoors today, make sure to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks
in air conditioned spaces. Also, never leave children or pets in a
vehicle unattended.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind gusts 35 to 45 knots
which will affect some inland lakes this afternoon and evening as
well as portions of the intracoastal waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
Thunderstorm chances will continue this week, driven by the east
coast sea breeze and storm-scale collisions. Higher coverage of
afternoon storms will be over interior locations west of
Interstate 95. The strongest storms will be capable of producing
gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and torrential downpours.

Afternoon temperatures each day will be in the low to mid 90s with
heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed this afternoon and tonight.

BS/SK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
225 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

FLZ347-447-747-021900-
Southern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands FL-Mainland Northern Brevard FL-
225 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Brevard
County through 300 PM EDT...

At 223 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm
over northern Merritt Island, moving west at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Titusville, Cocoa, Sharpes, Merritt Island and Kennedy Space Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Conditions are favorable for the development of weak, brief funnel
clouds. These types of funnel clouds are harmless, but on rare
occasions they can briefly touch down, producing wind gusts over 50
mph. If a funnel cloud is spotted move indoors and report your
sighting to the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2838 8074 2840 8075 2840 8076 2854 8080
      2858 8064 2842 8062
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 078DEG 6KT 2850 8070

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kelly

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
305 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

FLZ058-259-264-021945-
Okeechobee FL-Inland St. Lucie FL-Inland Martin FL-
305 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of western St. Lucie,
southeastern Okeechobee and western Martin Counties through 345 PM
EDT...

At 304 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles west of Fort Pierce South to 7 miles
west of Palm City. Movement was southwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Indiantown, J And S Fish Camp, Tradition, Saint Lucie West and First
Data Field.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2700 8062 2708 8066 2711 8066 2713 8069
      2747 8078 2751 8047 2710 8029 2698 8046
      2696 8061
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 066DEG 6KT 2743 8051 2714 8039

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Haley

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
325 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

FLZ041-046-022015-
Seminole FL-Inland Volusia FL-
325 PM EDT Tue Aug 2 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
Seminole and southeastern Volusia Counties through 415 PM EDT...

At 324 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Smyrna Beach, moving southeast at 10 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Port Orange, New Smyrna Beach, Geneva, Maytown and Lake Harney.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2908 8103 2879 8092 2879 8097 2873 8097
      2872 8110 2909 8120
TIME...MOT...LOC 1924Z 337DEG 9KT 2899 8103

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Haley