Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
938 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Overnight...A little cooler aloft (-8C at 500 mb) and
additional moisture allowing for more convection than we have seen
recently from evening sea breeze collision just west of Lake George
through western Orange and northwest Osceola counties. With the
later collision and slow movement of activity, expect convection
will wind down through late evening, with a few cells possibly
hanging on past midnight across the interior. SE flow near 10 mph
behind the sea breeze will become light and generally southerly
overnight. Mins will slowly fall into the M-U70s late tonight into
Tue morning.

Tuesday (modified previous)...The Atlantic ridge will remain draped
over central Florida with predominate south to southeasterly flow.
Guidance indicates that weak troughing will setup over northern
Florida. Additionally, weak pulses of energy are expected near the
area as a weak inverted trough continues to diminish while
approaching the east coast of Florida.

Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are expected
across central Florida in the afternoon and evening. The highest
chances for rain will be across the interior (~50-60%) with lower
chances near the coast (~30-40%). Drier air and cooler temps (~-7C)
aloft will mean that any strong storms that develop will have the
potential to produce wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning
strikes, heavy rainfall, minor flooding due to slow/erratic storm
motion, and small hail. High temperatures will reach the low 90s
along the coast and mid 90s inland.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions outside of convection. A late sea breeze
collision over the interior will produce ISOLD to SCT lightning
storms this evening. VCTS at KMCO/KSFB/KISM/KLEE through 02/03Z.
TEMPO MVFR in convection. Winds become light and variable to calm
overnight. High pops (50-60pct) across most of east central FL on
Tue, and VCTS at all terminals. VCTS to start along the coast around
16-17Z and at inland terminals around 18Z. Not enough confidence for
TEMPOs at this time but will likely need to be added with future TAF
packages.

&&

.MARINE...Overnight-Tue...Favorable boating conditions are forecast
to continue. The Atlantic ridge will remain elongated across the
area with south to southeasterly winds. A few showers may develop
again late tonight into early Tue morning offshore from the Treasure
Coast. SE winds around 10-12 kts veering SW and diminishing to 5-10
kts through daybreak. Seas 2-3ft. Expect winds around 10-12 kts to
develop in the afternoon Tue along the coast with the sea breeze.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Sedlock/Rodriguez/Law

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1044 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-012000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1044 AM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening, especially along the east coast sea breeze and west
of Interstate 95. Stronger storms may produce gusty winds up to 50
mph, frequent lightning strikes, and small hail. Slow and erratic
storm motions could lead to locally heavy rainfall of 1 to 3
inches in a short period of time which could lead to minor
flooding of low-lying and poor drainage areas. Move indoors to
safety at the first sign of threatening skies, or if you hear
thunder.

.EXCESSIVE HEAT IMPACT...
Highs will reach the low 90s near the coast and the mid 90s
across the interior. Afternoon heat indices will generally range
from 100 to 105, especially west of I-95. Heat indices in
Okeechobee County may reach up to 106 to 107 this afternoon. If
outdoors today, make sure to stay hydrated and take plenty of
breaks in air conditioned spaces. Also, never leave children or
pets in a vehicle unattended.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Isolated thunderstorms that develop over inland lakes and along
the coast later today will be capable of producing wind gusts of
30 to 40 knots. Storm motions will be slow and erratic.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Coverage of rain and lightning storms will gradually increase
this week, especially during the latter half of the week, as
moisture increases. The east coast sea breeze will continue to
focus the highest coverage of afternoon and evening storms along
and west of Interstate 95. The strongest storms will be capable of
gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and torrential downpours.

Afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s and peak heat index
values of 100 to 105 are expected through the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

Tollefsen/Leahy/Schaper

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
822 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

FLZ045-144-020045-
Orange FL-Southern Lake County FL-
822 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of south central Lake
and southwestern Orange Counties through 845 PM EDT...

At 822 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Oakland, or near Winter Garden. This storm was nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Apopka, Ocoee, Winter Garden, Windermere and Bay Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2840 8173 2865 8175 2865 8153 2839 8154
TIME...MOT...LOC 0022Z 262DEG 1KT 2854 8165

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Rodriguez

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
844 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

FLZ045-144-020115-
Orange FL-Southern Lake County FL-
844 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of south central Lake
and southwestern Orange Counties through 915 PM EDT...

At 844 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Lake Apopka to Horizon West. These storms were
nearly stationary.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Apopka, Ocoee, Winter Garden, Windermere and Bay Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2870 8175 2837 8171 2837 8155 2870 8153
TIME...MOT...LOC 0044Z 177DEG 2KT 2863 8162 2845 8162

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Rodriguez

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