Special Weather Statement, NWS Melbourne, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
938 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

.DISCUSSION...

Current-Overnight...A little cooler aloft (-8C at 500 mb) and
additional moisture allowing for more convection than we have seen
recently from evening sea breeze collision just west of Lake George
through western Orange and northwest Osceola counties. With the
later collision and slow movement of activity, expect convection
will wind down through late evening, with a few cells possibly
hanging on past midnight across the interior. SE flow near 10 mph
behind the sea breeze will become light and generally southerly
overnight. Mins will slowly fall into the M-U70s late tonight into
Tue morning.

Tuesday (modified previous)...The Atlantic ridge will remain draped
over central Florida with predominate south to southeasterly flow.
Guidance indicates that weak troughing will setup over northern
Florida. Additionally, weak pulses of energy are expected near the
area as a weak inverted trough continues to diminish while
approaching the east coast of Florida.

Scattered to numerous showers and lightning storms are expected
across central Florida in the afternoon and evening. The highest
chances for rain will be across the interior (~50-60%) with lower
chances near the coast (~30-40%). Drier air and cooler temps (~-7C)
aloft will mean that any strong storms that develop will have the
potential to produce wind gusts up to 50 mph, frequent lightning
strikes, heavy rainfall, minor flooding due to slow/erratic storm
motion, and small hail. High temperatures will reach the low 90s
along the coast and mid 90s inland.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR conditions outside of convection. A late sea breeze
collision over the interior will produce ISOLD to SCT lightning
storms this evening. VCTS at KMCO/KSFB/KISM/KLEE through 02/03Z.
TEMPO MVFR in convection. Winds become light and variable to calm
overnight. High pops (50-60pct) across most of east central FL on
Tue, and VCTS at all terminals. VCTS to start along the coast around
16-17Z and at inland terminals around 18Z. Not enough confidence for
TEMPOs at this time but will likely need to be added with future TAF
packages.

&&

.MARINE...Overnight-Tue...Favorable boating conditions are forecast
to continue. The Atlantic ridge will remain elongated across the
area with south to southeasterly winds. A few showers may develop
again late tonight into early Tue morning offshore from the Treasure
Coast. SE winds around 10-12 kts veering SW and diminishing to 5-10
kts through daybreak. Seas 2-3ft. Expect winds around 10-12 kts to
develop in the afternoon Tue along the coast with the sea breeze.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

Sedlock/Rodriguez/Law

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1015 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

AMZ550-552-555-570-572-575-FLZ041-044>046-053-058-141-144-154-159-
164-247-254-259-264-347-447-547-647-747-021000-
Flagler Beach to Volusia-Brevard County Line 0-20 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 0-20 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 0-20 nm-Flagler Beach to Volusia-
Brevard County Line 20-60 nm-Volusia-
Brevard County Line to Sebastian Inlet 20-60 nm-
Sebastian Inlet to Jupiter Inlet 20-60 nm-Inland Volusia-
Northern Lake-Orange-Seminole-Osceola-Okeechobee-Coastal Volusia-
Southern Lake-Coastal Indian River-Coastal Saint Lucie-
Coastal Martin-Inland Northern Brevard-Inland Indian River-
Inland Saint Lucie-Inland Martin-Mainland Northern Brevard-
Northern Brevard Barrier Islands-Inland Southern Brevard-
Mainland Southern Brevard-Southern Brevard Barrier Islands-
1015 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

.THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
Scattered strong thunderstorms this evening, resulting from sea
breeze boundary collisions over the interior, will produce strong
wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph, frequent to excessive lightning strikes,
torrential downpours, and coin-size hail. This activity may hold
together long enough to propagate back to the Brevard County coast
with gusty outflow winds arriving well ahead of any precipitation.
Move indoors to safety at the first sign of threatening skies, or if
you hear thunder.

.MARINE THUNDERSTORM GUST IMPACT...
Scattered thunderstorms this evening from sea breeze collisions
across the central peninsula may produce wind gusts in excess of 40
knots across inland lakes. A large outflow boundary propagating
eastward across eastern Orange and northern Osceola counties may
hold together to make it to the Brevard County coast and then across
the intracoastal and near shore Atlantic waters well ahead of any
showers or storms and may produce wind gusts of 30 to 40 knots.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
Coverage of rain and lightning storms will gradually increase
this week, especially during the latter half of the week, as
moisture increases. The east coast sea breeze will continue to
focus the highest coverage of afternoon and evening storms along
and west of Interstate 95. The strongest storms will be capable of
gusty winds, frequent lightning strikes, and torrential downpours.

Afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 90s and peak heat index
values of 100 to 105 are expected through the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

Sedlock

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1010 PM EDT MON AUG 01 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0951 PM     TSTM WND GST     KISSIMMEE AIRPORT       28.29N  81.44W
08/01/2022  M43 MPH          OSCEOLA            FL   AWOS

            THE KISSIMMEE AIRPORT AWOS MEASURED A THUNDERSTORM WIND
            GUST OF 37KTS/43MPH FROM THE NORTH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER MLB2200398

LAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1019 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

FLZ045-053-247-547-020245-
Osceola FL-Orange FL-Inland Southern Brevard FL-
Inland Northern Brevard FL-
1019 PM EDT Mon Aug 1 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Brevard,
southeastern Orange and northern Osceola Counties through 1045 PM
EDT...

At 1018 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Wedgefield to 8 miles east of Lake Hart to
near Harmony to 8 miles south of Saint Cloud. Movement was east at
30 mph. Strong thunderstorms will continue from Orlando to Kissimmee
for at least another hour.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Orlando, Kissimmee, Saint Cloud, Wedgefield and Christmas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or hard-topped vehicle. Remember, when
thunder roars, go indoors!

&&

LAT...LON 2834 8150 2853 8142 2853 8118 2856 8087
      2834 8080 2816 8081 2808 8100 2809 8145
      2814 8146 2814 8152 2820 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 0218Z 269DEG 28KT 2848 8110 2838 8108 2823 8115 2812
8130

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Rodriguez