Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
623 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...New AVIATION...

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Tuesday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

GOES-16 satellite trends depict a mid-level trough moving through
the Lower Mississippi Valley this afternoon. Meanwhile, surface
analysis places a cold front from Lake Michigan back through East
Central/Southwest Missouri, Northwest Arkansas, and back into the
Red River Valley of Texas. Southerly winds on the back side of
high pressure has resulted in the recovery of lower 60 dewpoints
back into the Mid-South this afternoon. As of 3 PM CDT,
temperatures across the Mid-South range from the 60s along and north
of I-40 where showers and thunderstorms have occurred and lower
80s south in the warm sector.

Decent upper level divergence, combined with moderately steep to
steep mid-level lapse rates, surface based CAPE values rising to
at or above 2000 J/kg, (south of I-40) and 40-50 kts of shear
will result in a potential for strong to severe thunderstorms over
portions of East Arkansas, West Tennessee, and North Mississippi.
Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary threat for any
thunderstorms that reach severe limits. Some directional shear
exists with 0-3 km storm relative helicity values between 200-250
m2/s2. However, LCLs have remained high limiting the overall
tornado threat.

Short term models including Convective Allowing Model solutions
indicate the potential for some redevelopment of showers and
thunderstorms along and south of the TN/MS border this evening
with convection pushing ESE away from the Mid-South later this
evening as high pressure builds back into the Lower Mississippi
Valley.

Slightly cooler temperatures are expected on Thursday with highs
in the 70s. A combination of gusty northwest to north 20 ft winds,
relative humidity values at or below 25 percent, and 10 hour fuel
moisture values falling below 10 percent over portions of
Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel have resulted in the
issuance of a Red Flag Warning for the aforementioned area.
Minimal rainfall fell over the aforementioned area today, and
latest RAWS observations over East Arkansas already show 10 hour
fuel moisture values dropping once again.

Long term models indicate the potential for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will increase over the weekend as
another upper level trough and associated cold front drop into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Much cooler temperatures are expected
by early next week with highs in the mid 50s to 60s and lows in
the 30s to lower 40s. Frost/Freeze headlines may become necessary
by early next week across portions of the Mid-South. (especially
over Northwest Tennessee)

CJC

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

VFR conditions should continue across the entire Mid-South for
much of the forecast period. Showers and thunderstorms will
continue to move across portions of the Mid-South mainly south of
I-40 during the evening hours. Winds will be mainly from the south
at 5 to 10 knots this evening before shifting to the northwest
overnight. Winds will remain from the northwest on Thursday
increasing to 10 to 15 knots with some higher gusts.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for ARZ009-018-
     026>028.

MO...Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for MOZ113-115.

MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...ARS

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Memphis TN
407 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-132315-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
407 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected through mid-evening
over portions of East Arkansas, West Tennessee, and North
Mississippi. Damaging winds and large hail will be the main
threats for any thunderstorms that reach severe limits.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

A Red Flag Warning has been issued for portions of Northeast
Arkansas, and the Missouri Bootheel Thursday afternoon for dry
fuels, low relative humidity and gusty northwest to north winds.

Frost is possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning across
portions of West Tennessee as colder air filters into the Mid-
South.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed through mid-evening across
portions East Arkansas, West Tennessee and North Mississippi in
support of severe weather operations. Please relay any
information about observed severe weather to the NWS while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

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