Severe Thunderstorm Warning 216, NWS Memphis, TN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
1248 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1034 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

GOES-16 Satellite trends/12Z upper air analysis places an upper
level trough axis over the Plains and over western sections of
the Lower Mississippi Valley and a mid-level shortwave moving
across the region this morning. Regional WSR-88D radar trends
indicate a cluster of showers and thunderstorms over Southeast
Missouri and over North Central and Central Arkansas. This
activity thus far has been elevated with a good amount of dry air
in place near the surface. As of 11 AM CDT, temperatures across
the Mid-South are in the lower to middle 70s.

Southerly winds on the back side of high pressure are helping to
advect low level moisture back into the Mid-South with lower 60
surface dewpoints present over North Mississippi and upper 40s to
50s surface dewpoints present north of I-40. Latest mesoanalysis
indicates surface based CAPE values between 2000-3000 J/kg over
North Mississippi while any instability remains elevated further
north.

Short term models including Convective Allowing Model solutions
suggest the upstream convection will begin to move east/southeast
towards the Mississippi River by early to mid-afternoon. An
elevated hail threat and possibly some damaging winds will be
possible with any thunderstorms that reach severe limits over
East/Northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel. This
convective activity may weaken somewhat as it moves into West
Tennessee/Northwest Mississippi initially but will move into an
environment with better instability and moderately steep mid-level
lapse rates later this afternoon into this evening. 0-3 km storm
relative helicity values between 200-250 m2/s2 would favor some
rotation in storms especially along and west of the Mississippi
River. However, LCL's still remain quite high and that may
negatively affect the development/occurrence of tornadic
development into this evening.

Updated grids will be available shortly.

CJC

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 252 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Showers continue to linger for portions of northern Mississippi
and areas around the Tennessee River. Expect these to dissipate
by sunrise, leaving most of the Mid-South dry with temperatures in
the low 60s.

Later today, an upper level trough will continue to move southeast
over the Ozarks Region, pushing a cold front into the Mid-South by
the afternoon and evening hours. A severe weather threat exists
for all of the Mid-South, with regions south of I-40 at the
greatest threat to see high winds and large hail. Models agree
that the region will see two rounds of rain and storms, with the
first round being a thin line of convection that moves southeast
from the Missouri Bootheel to the I-40 corridor before
dissipating. A second line of thunderstorms is expected to
develop in northeast Arkansas just along the front by the evening
hours. The environment ahead of this line supports Lapse Rates of
around 7 C/km and surface CAPE values around 1000-1500 J/kg. In
addition, Storm Relative Helicity values are highest in regions
south of I-40, with the greatest values in northeast Mississippi.
Therefore, an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out for regions
south of I-40. Therefore, expect the greatest severe threat to be
focused along and south of I-40, with damaging winds, large hail,
and an isolated tornado possible.

By midnight, showers and storms should push out of the region,
leaving behind drier air and cooler temperatures. High
temperatures Thursday and Friday will be in the mid to upper 70s,
with low relative humidity values. However, this pattern will not
continue for long as the upper level trough moves farther east and
weakens, allowing for southerly winds and moisture to return to
the Mid-South by Saturday. Precipitable Water values will climb
back to around 1.5in by Sunday. Luckily, the upper level trough
will start to re-strengthen Sunday, bringing another cold front to
the region. Precipitation chances will increase just ahead of the
frontal passage, with the highest totals being around 0.25 inches.

Behind the front, expect another cool and dry pattern. The cold
air associated with this air mass is deeper, allowing for high
temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday to stay in the low to mid 60s
across most of the region. By the end of next week, models show
winds switching back to a southerly direction and temperatures
increasing to the low 70s.

ANS

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

Showers and thunderstorms over NE AR will gradually begin to move
ESE into W TN and N MS this afternoon into this evening. Best
chance for convection at JBR will be through 21Z. MEM/MKL between
19-02z, and TUP between 01-04Z. S/SW winds will veer NW/NNW with
passage of cold front. VFR conditions expected outside of
thunderstorms.

CJC

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...CJC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Memphis TN
503 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

ARZ009-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>022-048>055-088>092-131215-
Alcorn-Benton MS-Benton TN-Calhoun-Carroll-Chester-Chickasaw-Clay-
Coahoma-Craighead-Crittenden-Crockett-Cross-DeSoto-Decatur-
Dunklin-Dyer-Fayette-Gibson-Greene-Hardeman-Hardin-Haywood-
Henderson-Henry-Itawamba-Lafayette-Lake-Lauderdale-Lee AR-Lee MS-
Madison-Marshall-McNairy-Mississippi-Monroe-Obion-Panola-Pemiscot-
Phillips-Poinsett-Pontotoc-Prentiss-Quitman-Shelby-St. Francis-
Tallahatchie-Tate-Tippah-Tipton-Tishomingo-Tunica-Union-Weakley-
Yalobusha-
503 AM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of East Arkansas...
the Missouri Bootheel...North Mississippi...and West Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Some severe thunderstorms are expected by the afternoon and
evening hours, with the main threats being damaging winds, large
hail, and an isolated tornado. Regions south of I-40, especially
in northeast Mississippi have the highest chance of seeing these
threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Starting Thursday, there exists Elevated Fire Danger across most
of the region due to dry fuels, low Relative Humidity, and gusty
winds. By Saturday, the threat will diminish.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.
Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the
NWS while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
254 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

TNZ052>054-122030-
Henderson TN-Chester TN-Madison TN-
254 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Henderson,
central Madison and northern Chester Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 254 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Bemis, or near Jackson, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Jackson, Lexington, Henderson, Bemis, Reagan, Blue Goose, Jacks
Creek, Mifflin, Bargerton, Parkers Crossroads, Medon, Pinson, Beech
Bluff, Westover, Madison Hall, Juno, Maple Grove, Middle Fork,
Timberlake and Hinson Springs.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3543 8893 3566 8895 3576 8839 3548 8834
TIME...MOT...LOC 1954Z 260DEG 42KT 3558 8886

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
259 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

MSZ002-003-TNZ089-090-122030-
Marshall MS-Benton MS-Hardeman TN-Fayette TN-
259 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Marshall,
northern Benton, southeastern Fayette and southern Hardeman Counties
through 330 PM CDT...

At 259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Whiteville to Byhalia. Movement was
southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Holly Springs, Bolivar, Lamar, Whiteville, Byhalia, Snow Lake Shores,
Canaan, Mt Pleasant, Lagrange, Michigan City, Red Banks, Slayden,
Rossville, Moscow, Williston, Grand Junction, Hornsby, La Grange,
Hickory Valley and Saulsbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3468 8939 3481 8972 3489 8972 3534 8917
      3522 8878 3519 8878
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 294DEG 32KT 3527 8918 3487 8967

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
302 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

ARZ048-049-122030-
St. Francis AR-Lee AR-
302 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Lee and
southwestern St. Francis Counties through 330 PM CDT...

At 302 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
New Salem, or near Palestine, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Forrest City, Madison, Palestine, Widener, Haynes, Brickeys, Cody,
Gill, Bonair, Westor, Dansby, New Castle, Four Forks, Dodsons Corner,
Heustess, Ball Point and Tongin.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 9096 3495 9100 3507 9067 3484 9056
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 256DEG 28KT 3490 9093

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

SMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Memphis TN
319 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

MSZ002>005-TNZ053-090-091-122045-
Tippah MS-Marshall MS-Benton MS-Alcorn MS-Hardeman TN-Chester TN-
McNairy TN-
319 PM CDT Wed Oct 12 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern
Marshall, Tippah, Benton, Alcorn, Hardeman, McNairy and southwestern
Chester Counties through 345 PM CDT...

At 319 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Silerton to 8 miles northwest of
Pocahontas to near Canaan to near Snow Lake Shores. Movement was
southeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Corinth, Holly Springs, Bolivar, Ripley, Selmer, Big Hill Pond State
Park, Lamar, Adamsville, Blue Mountain, Snow Lake Shores, Silerton,
Masseyville, Theo, Canaan, Pocahontas, Hinkle, Gravestown, Robertson,
McNairy and Walnut.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3479 8855 3475 8861 3476 8872 3469 8872
      3460 8888 3460 8899 3481 8946 3500 8922
      3500 8920 3501 8920 3515 8908 3540 8906
      3527 8839 3506 8838
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 298DEG 39KT 3530 8880 3514 8893 3497 8905 3478
8932

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

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