High Wind Warning 1, NWS Jackson, MS

Ashley County, AR, Chicot County, AR, Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Attala County, MS, Bolivar County, MS, Carroll County, MS, Choctaw County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Clay County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Grenada County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Holmes County, MS, Humphreys County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Leflore County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Lowndes County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Montgomery County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Noxubee County, MS, Oktibbeha County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Sunflower County, MS, Warren County, MS, Washington County, MS, Webster County, MS, Winston County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

019 
WWUS74 KJAN 301640 AAA
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1140 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
310000-
/O.CON.KJAN.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220331T0000Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg, 
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro, 
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof, 
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Cleveland, Indianola, 
Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, North Carrollton, 
Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Mathiston, West Point, Columbus, 
Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Greenville, Belzoni, Isola, Durant, 
Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko, Louisville, 
Macon, Brooksville, Mayersville, Rolling Fork, Anguilla, 
Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage, Philadelphia, 
Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson, Pearl, Brandon,
Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur, Conehatta, 
Meridian, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst, Wesson, 
Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Bay Springs, 
Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Fayette, Natchez, Bude, 
Roxie, Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss, 
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia, 
West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
1140 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds sustained 25 to 35 mph with widespread 
  gusts to 55 mph expected. Isolated gusts up to 60 mph. These 
  winds will occur before the arrival of thunderstorms.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Louisiana, central and south 
  Mississippi and southeast Arkansas.

* WHEN...From now to 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$
22

062 
WWUS74 KJAN 302059 AAA
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
359 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>025-MSZ018-034-040-302200-
/O.CAN.KJAN.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220331T0000Z/
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Bolivar-Washington-
Issaquena-
Including the cities of Crossett, North Crossett, Hamburg, 
West Crossett, Dermott, Lake Village, Eudora, Bastrop, Oak Grove,
Epps, Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro, 
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof, 
Cleveland, Greenville, and Mayersville
359 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The threat for damaging wind gusts has ended. 

$$

LAZ026-MSZ019-025>033-035>039-041>066-072>074-310000-
/O.CON.KJAN.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220331T0000Z/
Concordia-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-
Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, 
Indianola, Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, 
North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Mathiston, 
West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Belzoni, Isola,
Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko, 
Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Rolling Fork, Anguilla, 
Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage, Philadelphia, 
Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson, Pearl, Brandon,
Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur, Conehatta, 
Meridian, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst, Wesson, 
Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Bay Springs, 
Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Fayette, Natchez, Bude, 
Roxie, Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss, 
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia, 
West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
359 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...South winds sustained 25 to 35 mph with widespread gusts
  to 55 mph expected. These winds will occur before the arrival 
  of thunderstorms.

* WHERE...Portions of northeast Louisiana, central and south 
  Mississippi and southeast Arkansas.

* WHEN...From now to 7 PM CDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are possible. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

086 
WWUS74 KJAN 310025
NPWJAN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Jackson MS
725 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

LAZ026-MSZ019-025>033-035>039-041>066-072>074-310130-
/O.EXP.KJAN.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-220331T0000Z/
Concordia-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-
Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, 
Indianola, Ruleville, Greenwood, Grenada, Vaiden, 
North Carrollton, Carrollton, Winona, Eupora, Mathiston, 
West Point, Columbus, Ackerman, Weir, Starkville, Belzoni, Isola,
Durant, Tchula, Lexington, Pickens, Goodman, Kosciusko, 
Louisville, Macon, Brooksville, Rolling Fork, Anguilla, 
Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage, Philadelphia, 
Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Vicksburg, Jackson, Pearl, Brandon,
Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur, Conehatta, 
Meridian, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst, Wesson, 
Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Bay Springs, 
Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Fayette, Natchez, Bude, 
Roxie, Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss, 
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, Columbia, 
West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
725 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...HIGH WIND WARNING HAS EXPIRED...

The High Wind Warning was allowed to expire as convection has 
moved into the area and lighter winds are expected in the wake of 
the convection.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1257 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...SEVERE STORMS AND HIGH WINDS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 06Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
A mix of VFR and MVFR conditions are occurring this evening as low
stratus is continuing to stream into the region. While MVFR
ceilings should improve this morning, winds will be a significant
issue through the night and the day today. South winds sustained
20 to 30kts, with gusts up to 40-45kts will occur today outside of
thunderstorms. A line of storms will move from west to east
through the area from 18-03Z today. These will bring strong winds
and possibly embedded tornadoes as well. Conditions will improve
from west to east behind the line rapidly back to VFR but winds
will be slow to diminish. /28/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The overall forecast reasoning is unchanged. Short-term grids were
updated through Wednesday evening to reflect slight adjustments in
timing for POPs. Various high-res and global model guidance remain
closely aligned with timing of the storms tomorrow. /NF/

Prior discussion below:

Tonight and Tomorrow:

Warm southerlies will continue to transport a partially modified
Gulf of Mexico airmass into the area overnight tonight. This will
result in increasingly breezy conditions and will prevent overnight
lows from falling much tonight. Temperatures will initial cool from
the upper 70s F to the mid and upper 60s F by midnight, and then
will hover in that range until dawn Wednesday.

The primary concern for the forecast period continues to be the
threat for widespread, significant severe weather across the area.

Synoptically, some classic features stand out: A large upper trough
and broad low pressure area will be moving into the area with rapid
pressure and upper-level height falls (e.g. 500 mb heights
falling around 8-10 dam and surface pressures falling 6-9 mb
between 12z and 21z). At the same time, deep southerly flow will
have been ongoing across the area for 24-36 hours prior to storm
passage. As the upper trough approaches, an embedded shortwave is
expected to take on a negative tilt which, in combination with
weakly split flow at 300 mb and the right entrance region of a
120+ kt 500 mb jet streak, will create extreme divergence across
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley. This lift should have
little difficulty in generating thunderstorms which will begin to
approach our area by midday.

Thermodynamically, things are more complicated. Backwards
trajectories of boundary layer air parcels indicate an origin not
truly tropical in origin and exceptionally deep moisture is unlikely
to have made it into our area prior to passage of expected storms.
Instead, the partially modified airmass will likely be characterized
by dewpoints in the 60-64 range through most of the event. At the
same time, extensive dry and warm air aloft remains ahead of the
system and this will take significant lifting to alleviate. This may
allow for some cloud breaks particularly in eastern portions of our
area, and we could see afternoon highs again in the 80s F.

Typically, when relatively lower quality moisture is combined with
extensive day time warming, we often see deep boundary layer mixing.
Often, our 850 mb flow can have a westerly component and it is not
unusual in these cases to see our boundary layer shear (in
particularly the 0-1 km) drop substantially as this occurs. On
Wednesday, an unusually strong low level jet centered about 850 mb
will be racing in excess of 65 kts and with rapid height falls will
have a significant ageostrophic component, backing well beyond the
geostrophic expectation. This will likely enable the 850 mb flow to
remain mostly southerly. Given the exceptionally high velocities and
surface pressure falls supporting backing of surface winds at the
same time, it is unlikely that a uniform wind will develop through
the entirety of the boundary layer despite deep mixing, and at
least 200 m^2/s^2 of 0-1 km storm relative helicity will likely be
maintained, though predominately speed shear as only weak veering
with height is anticipated in the well-mixed boundary layer. This
will, of course, result in significant pre-storm transport of
very strong winds to the surface and for that reason a wind
advisory remains in place with wind gusts apart from storms
expected to reach up to 55 mph.

In terms of impacts on instability, deep mixing in the boundary
layer rarely directly results in gains in convective available
potential energy (CAPE) as drier air aloft can result in poorer
moisture quality despite the gains in boundary layer temperature.
With continued positive moisture flux (albeit from a modified
source), however, some of these losses may be at least partially
offset. SBCAPE values will likely only marginally increase
through the day, and values will generally remain under 1200
J/KG. Given the high shear expected (0-6 km bulk shear at or
above 60 kt for most locations), this is likely to still be
sufficient for severe storm development particularly with severe-
criteria winds located so near the surface.

In terms of convective evolution, a strongly forced band of storms
will likely develop into a squall or quasi-linear convective system
(QLCS). With little in terms of enhanced confluence, an enhanced axis
of moisture, significant dry air aloft, and the rapid forward
propagation of the squall, it is unlikely that many discrete cells
will mature ahead of the line. Conditions will be supportive of
supercells in the event a scenario arises (which would likely be
dependent on the eventual convective evolution of QLCS surges/bowing
segments). If an isolated storm could mature, the expected
prefrontal environment could briefly support supercells. The best
chances for this would be to the south of dominant bowing
segments. This evolution is highly conditional but would have the
potential to produce significant severe weather including some
risk for a strong tornado. Elsewhere within the squall, the
strongly forced nature and narrow corridor of deep moisture
should result in a focused zone of intense thunderstorms that will
likely stretch somewhat southwest to northeast, impinging on the
western portions of the area by late morning before clearing the
Pine Belt in the hour or two following sunset. High shear and
sufficient thermodynamic profiles will support the possibility
for brief, primarily "spin- up" tornadoes. Coupled with very fast
storm motions (which may reach 70+ mph), these tornadoes may
result in little lead time before impacts occur. While it is
always the case to seek shelter as soon as a tornado warning is
received, the point may be underlined here as initial development
and movement of tornadoes is expected to be rapid. Given the rapid
forward motion and intense winds aloft coupled with maintained
southerly to southeasterly surface flow, sufficient ingredients
may come together sufficiently that a strong tornado cannot be
ruled out within the QLCS structure.

We continue to point out the unusually large dewpoint depressions
which will result in higher cloud bases and a somewhat more
challenging environment for tornadogenesis. This continues to be
perhaps the primary stumbling block precluding a more widespread
outbreak of tornadoes. At this time the threat for damaging winds
appears to be the primary threat, and the vast majority of the
area will see wind gusts above 40 mph even outside of
thunderstorms. Many areas are likely to see gusts above 60 mph and
multiple locations will likely see gusts as high as 80 mph with
the more intense segments of the line. Following last week's
tornado outbreak, it is prudent to note these possible forecast
differences and we are not expecting the widespread tornado
activity we saw then. We do, however, expect as much and possibly
more strong and damaging thunderstorm winds. Compounding this
issue is the likelihood for weakened trees and branches that were
not fully toppled last week to come down and they could do so well
ahead of any storms. It is therefore advised that any necessary
storm cleanup be rushed to completion today if possible and that
any loose items outdoors be well secured. /86/

Wednesday night through Monday night:

Come Wednesday evening, the line of severe storms is expected to
be over east Mississippi. It is possible the system will be faster
and push east of Mississippi by the evening but the threat for
damaging wind and tornadoes will end with the passage of the line
of storms. Even though the severe threat will end early evening,
the cold front will take longer to swing through and rain chances
will continue until the cold front moves through. Rain chances
will begin ending from the west by mid evening and is expected to
end in our southeast by sunrise Thursday. Cooler and drier air
will filter into the region in the wake of the cold front but
morning lows will only be slightly cooler than normal in our
northwest while remaining a few degrees above normal in our
southeast. A weak surface high to our west will slide east across
our CWA while a shortwave trough moves across the region as well
Thursday. Dry weather is expected but these features will help
keep temperatures slightly cooler than normal. Ridging surface and
aloft will shift east across our region Friday. Dry weather will
last into Friday evening but as the ridges shift east and return
flow develops ahead of another approaching shortwave trough, rain
chances are expected to return from the west after midnight. Rain
chance will continue into Saturday before ending from the west
Saturday afternoon as the shortwave shifts east of Mississippi.
The dry weather will last through Monday but rain chances look to
return from the west Monday evening as another low pressure system
approaches. /22/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       66  83  50  70 /   1  99  51   0
Meridian      65  84  54  72 /   1  71  95   0
Vicksburg     66  82  48  70 /   0 100  19   0
Hattiesburg   66  83  55  76 /   2  79  95   0
Natchez       68  80  49  70 /   1 100  14   0
Greenville    65  78  47  65 /   0 100  24   0
Greenwood     66  81  48  66 /   1 100  49   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074.

LA...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ074-075.

&&

28

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
247 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
302000-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-
Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-
Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
247 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Tonight and Wednesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Wednesday

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Wednesday

Severe storms are expected and significant severe weather is
possible for the entire outlook area Wednesday afternoon into
Wednesday evening. The primary hazards will be damaging wind gusts
up to 80 mph and possible tornadoes. A strong tornado can not be
ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Sustained winds of at least 25 to 35 mph with gusts of up to 55
mph are expected across the forecast area on Wednesday before
thunderstorms arrive.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday night through Monday

A few severe storms are expected and significant severe weather
is possible across southeast Mississippi into the late evening.
The primary hazards will be damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph and
possible tornadoes.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region Wednesday
through Wednesday night.

86

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/