Tornado Warning 28, NWS Jackson, MS

456 
WWUS54 KJAN 301847
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
147 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

ARC003-LAC067-301915-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-220330T1915Z/
Ashley AR-Morehouse LA-
147 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ASHLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTHWESTERN
MOREHOUSE PARISHES...
    
At 146 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes
were located along a line extending from near North Crossett to 6
miles south of Galion, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

These dangerous storms will be near...
  Jones around 205 PM CDT.
  Wilmot around 210 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these tornadic storms include Bonita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 9171 3307 9146 3276 9184 3289 9194
      3309 9196
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 228DEG 47KT 3316 9187 3276 9178 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

TW

225 
WWUS54 KJAN 301856
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
156 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

ARC003-LAC067-301915-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-220330T1915Z/
Ashley AR-Morehouse LA-
156 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ASHLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
MOREHOUSE PARISHES...
    
At 156 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes
were located along a line extending from Hamburg to near Galion,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

These dangerous storms will be near...
  Wilmot around 215 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these tornadic storms include Bonita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 9171 3307 9146 3281 9178 3300 9182
      3313 9190
TIME...MOT...LOC 1856Z 228DEG 44KT 3323 9177 3283 9168 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

TW

571 
WWUS54 KJAN 301905
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
205 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

ARC003-LAC067-301915-
/O.CON.KJAN.TO.W.0028.000000T0000Z-220330T1915Z/
Ashley AR-Morehouse LA-
205 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 215 PM CDT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ASHLEY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN ARKANSAS AND NORTH CENTRAL
MOREHOUSE PARISHES...
    
At 204 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes
were located along a line extending from near Snyder to near Jones,
moving northeast at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Tornado.

SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation.

IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
         shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage 
         to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree damage is 
         likely.

These dangerous storms will be near...
  Wilmot around 215 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these tornadic storms include Bonita.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to a basement or an interior room on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a
mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter
and protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 3326 9171 3307 9146 3288 9169 3305 9172
      3323 9175
TIME...MOT...LOC 1904Z 228DEG 44KT 3330 9168 3290 9159 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN

$$

TW

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
113 PM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

...SEVERE STORMS AND HIGH WINDS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Southerly winds sustained 25-30kts with gusts of 40-50 kts are
expected ahead of a line of TSRA. The TSRA could bring gusts to
75kts along with flight restrictions. The line of TSRA wl affect
GLH by 19Z and continue east across the area this aftn into evng.
The line is expected to be around the I-55 corridor around 22z and
east of MS by 03Z. Lighter winds are expected once the TSRA move
through. VFR conditions are expected to prevail away from TSRA
activity until after 05Z when MVFR ceilings will be possible. VFR
conditions are expected to prevail areawide Thursday after 14Z.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not much to add or change to the going forecast as expectations
remain the same as prev forecasts. JAN 12z sounding has a large
cap, but erosion of that cap through isentropic ascent and strong
forcing will focus convection in the line as has been prev noted.
I will add that the more S you go, the orientation of the deep
shear favors some discrete updrafts, but the lower/mid level
forcing is driving a linear mode. So, the trade of may be some
potential for a broken line in spots. Ultimately, same threats
hold with damaging winds, then some tornado threat.

Timing looks to be basically the same. The 12 hrrr is a tad slower,
but when assessing the current line and it's movement, the timing in
our graphics remains very solid. Anticipate tornado watches to be
added well in advance of the line with something out likely in the
11 to noon time window. /CME/

Prior discussion below:

Today and tonight...

Quite an active day in store for the region. Just walk outside and
you can tell something in the weather will occur today. It has been
very warm overnight with temperatures in the lower 70s through the
night. A very potent southerly wind has prevailed with the 850mb low
level jet really kicking in tonight. Sustained winds overnight have
been 15-20kts with gusts around 25-30kts, even a brief near 40kt
gust at JAN.

Much of the forecast thinking remains the same. The upper trough
across the west will continue to track east and become negatively
tilted with time. As this occurs, the 990mb surface low will track
across the Mid-Mississippi Valley region and deepen. The line of
storms currently ongoing over the DFW metroplex will continue to
track east through the morning hours. This line is expected to reach
the western part of our forecast are by around noon-1pm. Some of
this line may be a little broken at first before intensifying and
congealing more into a solid squall line/QLCS. This line is expected
to quickly become severe as it encounters an airmass that will reach
the low to mid 80s before it moves through. Widespread 1400-1600
J/kg of MUCAPE, 45-55kts of deep layer shear, 300-600 m2/s2 helicity
all look to be in place to organize storms and produce a potent QLCS
to move through the region today. Given the abundance of wind in
place today, widespread damaging winds up to 80mph is expected and
there remains potential for tornadoes as well, including a strong
tornado. CAM guidance still indicates less potential for discrete
storms to develop ahead of the line(which if one of these were to
occur would be more supportive to produce a strong tornado in this
environment). With sufficient mixing today, 20 degree
Temperature/dewpoint spreads would support higher LCL heights, which
could mitigate tornadogenesis but especially reduce the strong
tornado risk today. However this risk remains non-zero given the
sufficient shear and helicity in place and if a supercell were to
develop along the line then the risk for a stronger tornado would
exist. A moderate risk still is in place for the entire region.
However, it is prudent to note that with this event we are not
expecting the QLCS to produce quite the numbers of tornadoes as we
saw last week, though certainly an embedded one is possible. We are
most concerned about the damaging wind aspect of this line and this
will certainly be widespread and likely to affect a larger portion
of our population. Winds up to 80mph, in addition to the gradient
wind ahead of the line, will pose risks of downed trees and
powerlines and result in power outages.

Of additional concern is the gradient wind ahead of/outside of
thunderstorms today. As mentioned, winds are already stout this
morning and with additional mixing up to around 850mb which would
suggest tapping into gusts around 45-50kts, and increasing low level
jet, winds will only continue to get stronger ahead of the squall
line through the afternoon. Sustained winds of 25 to 35 mph will be
possible, but we could see some higher gusts of 55-60mph. Generally
speaking, I feel really good about the gusts nearing 55mph, but am
quite concerned about a few locations(likely more isolated than
widespread) of reaching 60mph. That being said, the gradient winds
will be as much of a concern ahead of the line and have gone ahead
and issued a High Wind Warning to account for this. Once the line
passes, winds will remain gusty but should return to gusts closer to
20-25mph through the evening into tonight. Gusts will diminish after
midnight to around 15mph.

As the line moves through the region, there could be some locally
heavy rainfall. However, given the quick movement to it and lack of
indications of any training storms, the flooding risk is of lower
concern and will continue to not mention this in the HWO or
graphics.

Hold on to your hats, folks....it will be a windy, active weather
day today! /28/

Thursday through Next Wednesday...

After Wednesday's system, the longterm is pretty quiet. There will
be a series of shortwaves introducing rain chances periodically
throughout the forecast. Thursday afternoon, the elongated trough
centered over the Midwest will begin to shift east and mid-level
ridging will start to build in behind it. Dry weather will prevail
Thursday and Friday as this happens. By Saturday morning the first
shortwave will push across the ArkLaMiss while at the same time, a
stalled boundary along the Gulf will help increase rain chances
across the Deep South. Long range models continue to struggle with
timing and how far north the rain will be so for now, kept light
rain through Saturday morning. By the afternoon, the previously
mentioned wave will have transitioned east and dry air will filter
into the region returning dry conditions across the area through
Monday. A second shortwave is expected Tuesday which will bring
another round of rain across the ArkLaMiss. Temperatures will vary
throughout the period. Thursday and Friday highs will range from the
60s to low 70s while a warming trend is expected Saturday through
Monday. Temperatures will warm into the upper 70s for most places
while some areas south of I-20 will see temps rise into the mid
80s. /JNE/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       83  50  69  43 / 100  45   0   0
Meridian      84  54  72  43 /  67  92   0   0
Vicksburg     81  48  70  43 / 100  13   0   0
Hattiesburg   84  55  75  45 /  74  93   0   0
Natchez       80  49  71  45 / 100  13   0   0
Greenville    79  47  66  42 / 100  13   0   0
Greenwood     81  48  66  41 / 100  33   0   0

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...High Wind Warning until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

22/CME/28/JNE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
411 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-034-040-041-047-
059-060-310915-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Washington-Issaquena-Sharkey-Warren-Jefferson-Adams-
411 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, northwest Mississippi, southwest
Mississippi, and west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Today

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Today

Today, severe storms are expected and significant severe weather
is possible for the entire outlook area this afternoon into
this evening. The primary hazards will be damaging wind gusts up
to 80 mph and possible tornadoes. A strong tornado can not be
ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, sustained winds of at least 25 to 35 mph with gusts of up
to 55 mph are expected across the forecast area before
thunderstorms arrive.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

MSZ025>033-035>039-042>046-048>058-061>066-072>074-310915-
Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-
Oktibbeha-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-
Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
411 AM CDT Wed Mar 30 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
northeast Mississippi, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Today through Tonight

NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS
THREAT...Significant
TIMING...Today

Today, severe storms are expected and significant severe weather
is possible for the entire outlook area this afternoon into this
evening. The primary hazards will be damaging wind gusts up to 80
mph and possible tornadoes. A strong tornado can not be ruled out.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/1.png)

Today, sustained winds of at least 25 to 35 mph with gusts of up
to 55 mph are expected across the forecast area before
thunderstorms arrive.

(https://www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

14

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong or violent tornadoes possible.
Moderate...Significant severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are
 likely with strong tornadoes possible.
Enhanced...Severe thunderstorms are likely and tornadoes are
 possible.
Slight...Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes are possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible.

*NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS*
Significant...Scattered downed trees and power lines are likely
 due to sustained winds over 35 mph and potential wind gusts
 greater than 50 mph.
Elevated...A few downed trees and power lines are possible due
 to sustained winds ranging from 25 to 35 mph and potential for
 wind gusts over 40 mph. Travel will also be difficult for those
 in high profile vehicles.
Limited...Weak trees and limbs may break and fall due to
 sustained winds up to 25 mph and wind gusts around 35 mph.
 High profile vehicles could also be affected.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   https://www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   https://www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   https://www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   https://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/