Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
612 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Convective trends/severe mode the main concern/challenge this
evening. Little change from previous thinking/discussions, as warm
sector continues to destabilize with dry-line (DL) at 19z starting
to mix eastward from GBD to just east of PTT/P28 line. So, expect
the DL focus to be situated just west of the I-135 corridor in
the 21z-00z time frame where 2500-3000 j/kg MLCape should reside
with weakening inhibition. IF DL convection can develop, then very
favorable bulk shear of 45-50 kts normal to the DL, around 100
j/kg 0-3km Cape and increasing low level helicity with backing
near surface flow toward around 00z will support supercells with
potential for significant large hail and tornadoes across south
central Kansas into the Flint Hills through early this evening.
Otherwise, there remains rather high confidence in quasi-linear
strong to severe convection as the cold front merges with the DL
late this evening/tonight as it progresses eastward from the I-
135 corridor across the Flint Hills into southeast Kansas. This
will pose mainly a damaging wind threat with some potential for
marginally large hail early on.

A drier and cooler regime will follow on Saturday as the upper low
deepens over the Upper Midwest. Some diurnally enhanced stratocu
could drift over portions of central and eastern Kansas with gusty
northwest winds diminishing late in the day. Dry weather expected on
Sunday with return southerly flow and mild/near seasonal
temperatures.

Sunday night-Monday: Strong low level moisture transport Sunday
night may result in moderate instability with sufficient cloud
bearing shear for strong storms with potential MCS moving across
southern Kansas. Then on Monday the warm front will bow northward
putting at least portions of southern and eastern Kansas in the
very moist unstable warm sector ahead of another vigorous upper
trof moving into the central Plains. Of course the NAM is more
bullish with the Sunday night-Monday scenario over the GFS.
Nonetheless, another dry-line/cold frontal merger scenario looks
to evolve along/east of I- 135 in the late afternoon/evening with
higher probability of severe wind/squall line, though conditional
chances again for somewhat more isolated storms/supercells across
far southern Kansas or more probable northern Oklahoma at the
moment.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

A more typical active Spring-time pattern will prevail next week.
Another upper low will be somewhat slower to progress eastward
from the western conus into the Plains Wednesday into Thursday.
The medium range ensemble members show some variance late in the
week, so confidence is lower especially on PoP trends.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Isolated strong/severe convection is possible until mid-evening
along a dry-line. Otherwise, stronger forcing along an eastward
advancing cold front is expected to result in a line of storms
later this evening/overnight from central into eastern Kansas.
While mainly VFR cigs, brief MVFR cigs/vsbys and locally strong
downburst winds are possible in and near convection. Gusty
northwest winds are expected behind the front on Saturday.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Gusty northwest winds on Saturday will result in very high
grassland fire danger from late morning through the afternoon
across portions of central Kansas, mainly west of highway 14.
Otherwise, fire weather concerns are expected to be low to
moderate Sunday into next week with periodic chances for
widespread wetting rains.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  74  46  75 /  60   0   0   0
Hutchinson      51  73  44  74 /  30   0   0  10
Newton          51  72  45  74 /  60   0   0   0
ElDorado        51  73  46  74 /  70   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   51  75  46  76 /  60   0   0   0
Russell         48  71  42  74 /  30  10   0  10
Great Bend      49  72  42  74 /  20   0   0  10
Salina          51  72  44  74 /  40  10   0  10
McPherson       50  72  44  73 /  40   0   0  10
Coffeyville     55  75  48  76 /  80  10   0   0
Chanute         54  73  47  75 /  70  10   0   0
Iola            54  72  47  73 /  70  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    55  74  47  75 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
328 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302030-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
328 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance for significant supercell thunderstorms late
this afternoon and early evening across portions of central and
south central Kansas into the Flint Hills. If storms form just
ahead of a dry-line front, they will be capable of producing
baseball size hail, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph and
tornadoes. Thunderstorms will become likely along a cold front this
evening which will overtake the dry-line as it moves from central
and south central Kansas into southeast Kansas tonight. This line
of storms will be capable of mainly quarter size hail and damaging
winds to 65 mph until about 2 am.

Very high grassland fire danger is expected late this afternoon and
early evening behind the the dry-line, mainly along and west of
I-135. Strong south to southwest winds will continue as well along
and ahead of the dry-line into the evening. Refer to the Wind
Advisory for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Very high grassland fire danger is expected Saturday from late
morning through the afternoon across portions of central Kansas,
mainly along and west of highway 14.

There is a good chance for thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday
night. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Periodic
chances for storms will exist Wednesday into Thursday with some
potential for at least strong to marginally severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
605 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ032-292345-
Russell KS-
605 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Russell County
through 645 PM CDT...

At 605 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Luray, or 11 miles north of Russell, moving northeast
at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Russell, Lucas, Gorham, Luray, Dorrance, Bunker Hill, Paradise,
Waldo, Wilson State Park, Wilson Lake and Russell Airport.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 175 and 204.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9904 3913 9850 3885 9849 3875 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 224DEG 49KT 3905 9889

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
657 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST RUSSELL                 38.89N 98.85W
04/29/2022  M71 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   ASOS

&&

KEVIN.DARMOFAL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
708 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST ELLSWORTH               38.74N 98.23W
04/29/2022  M58 MPH          ELLSWORTH          KS   AWOS

&&

KEVIN.DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
716 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ052-053-300115-
Marion KS-Chase KS-
716 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Chase and
southeastern Marion Counties through 815 PM CDT...

At 716 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Burns, or 6 miles south of Florence, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Cottonwood Falls, Strong City, Florence, Burns, Elmdale, Cedar Point,
Hymer, Wonsevu, Tallgrass Prairie and Tallgrass Prairie Preserve.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central and
east central Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9638 3809 9670 3809 9714 3852 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 217DEG 37KT 3815 9695

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
719 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST GREAT BEND AIRPORT      38.35N 98.85W
04/29/2022  M67 MPH          BARTON             KS   AWOS

&&

KEVIN.DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
721 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ069-083-300115-
Butler KS-Sedgwick KS-
721 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Sedgwick and
west central Butler Counties through 815 PM CDT...

At 720 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Haysville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Wichita, Derby, El Dorado, Andover, Haysville, Augusta, Bel Aire,
Mulvane, Rose Hill, Clearwater, Towanda, Benton, Downtown Wichita,
Kechi, Eastborough, Northeast Wichita, East Wichita, Mcconnell Air
Force Base, South Wichita and Santa Fe Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 135 between Mile Markers 0 and 11.
 Interstate 35 between Mile Markers 34 and 78.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 9716 3748 9758 3791 9717 3791 9675
TIME...MOT...LOC 0020Z 217DEG 37KT 3756 9733

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

KETCHAM