Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
612 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Convective trends/severe mode the main concern/challenge this
evening. Little change from previous thinking/discussions, as warm
sector continues to destabilize with dry-line (DL) at 19z starting
to mix eastward from GBD to just east of PTT/P28 line. So, expect
the DL focus to be situated just west of the I-135 corridor in
the 21z-00z time frame where 2500-3000 j/kg MLCape should reside
with weakening inhibition. IF DL convection can develop, then very
favorable bulk shear of 45-50 kts normal to the DL, around 100
j/kg 0-3km Cape and increasing low level helicity with backing
near surface flow toward around 00z will support supercells with
potential for significant large hail and tornadoes across south
central Kansas into the Flint Hills through early this evening.
Otherwise, there remains rather high confidence in quasi-linear
strong to severe convection as the cold front merges with the DL
late this evening/tonight as it progresses eastward from the I-
135 corridor across the Flint Hills into southeast Kansas. This
will pose mainly a damaging wind threat with some potential for
marginally large hail early on.

A drier and cooler regime will follow on Saturday as the upper low
deepens over the Upper Midwest. Some diurnally enhanced stratocu
could drift over portions of central and eastern Kansas with gusty
northwest winds diminishing late in the day. Dry weather expected on
Sunday with return southerly flow and mild/near seasonal
temperatures.

Sunday night-Monday: Strong low level moisture transport Sunday
night may result in moderate instability with sufficient cloud
bearing shear for strong storms with potential MCS moving across
southern Kansas. Then on Monday the warm front will bow northward
putting at least portions of southern and eastern Kansas in the
very moist unstable warm sector ahead of another vigorous upper
trof moving into the central Plains. Of course the NAM is more
bullish with the Sunday night-Monday scenario over the GFS.
Nonetheless, another dry-line/cold frontal merger scenario looks
to evolve along/east of I- 135 in the late afternoon/evening with
higher probability of severe wind/squall line, though conditional
chances again for somewhat more isolated storms/supercells across
far southern Kansas or more probable northern Oklahoma at the
moment.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

A more typical active Spring-time pattern will prevail next week.
Another upper low will be somewhat slower to progress eastward
from the western conus into the Plains Wednesday into Thursday.
The medium range ensemble members show some variance late in the
week, so confidence is lower especially on PoP trends.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Isolated strong/severe convection is possible until mid-evening
along a dry-line. Otherwise, stronger forcing along an eastward
advancing cold front is expected to result in a line of storms
later this evening/overnight from central into eastern Kansas.
While mainly VFR cigs, brief MVFR cigs/vsbys and locally strong
downburst winds are possible in and near convection. Gusty
northwest winds are expected behind the front on Saturday.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 256 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

Gusty northwest winds on Saturday will result in very high
grassland fire danger from late morning through the afternoon
across portions of central Kansas, mainly west of highway 14.
Otherwise, fire weather concerns are expected to be low to
moderate Sunday into next week with periodic chances for
widespread wetting rains.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    52  74  46  75 /  60   0   0   0
Hutchinson      51  73  44  74 /  30   0   0  10
Newton          51  72  45  74 /  60   0   0   0
ElDorado        51  73  46  74 /  70   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   51  75  46  76 /  60   0   0   0
Russell         48  71  42  74 /  30  10   0  10
Great Bend      49  72  42  74 /  20   0   0  10
Salina          51  72  44  74 /  40  10   0  10
McPherson       50  72  44  73 /  40   0   0  10
Coffeyville     55  75  48  76 /  80  10   0   0
Chanute         54  73  47  75 /  70  10   0   0
Iola            54  72  47  73 /  70  10   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    55  74  47  75 /  80  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049-051>053-
067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...KED

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
328 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302030-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
328 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a chance for significant supercell thunderstorms late
this afternoon and early evening across portions of central and
south central Kansas into the Flint Hills. If storms form just
ahead of a dry-line front, they will be capable of producing
baseball size hail, damaging winds in excess of 70 mph and
tornadoes. Thunderstorms will become likely along a cold front this
evening which will overtake the dry-line as it moves from central
and south central Kansas into southeast Kansas tonight. This line
of storms will be capable of mainly quarter size hail and damaging
winds to 65 mph until about 2 am.

Very high grassland fire danger is expected late this afternoon and
early evening behind the the dry-line, mainly along and west of
I-135. Strong south to southwest winds will continue as well along
and ahead of the dry-line into the evening. Refer to the Wind
Advisory for details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Very high grassland fire danger is expected Saturday from late
morning through the afternoon across portions of central Kansas,
mainly along and west of highway 14.

There is a good chance for thunderstorms Sunday night through Monday
night. Some of these storms could be strong to severe. Periodic
chances for storms will exist Wednesday into Thursday with some
potential for at least strong to marginally severe storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters may be needed late this afternoon and evening.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ict

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
435 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ032-292215-
Russell KS-
435 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Russell
County through 515 PM CDT...

At 434 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Gorham, or near Emmeram, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Gorham, Luray, Paradise and Waldo.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 175 and 179.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9904 3913 9864 3880 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2134Z 224DEG 27KT 3894 9904

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
454 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ051-052-292230-
McPherson KS-Marion KS-
454 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern
McPherson and northwestern Marion Counties through 530 PM CDT...

At 454 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles north of Canton, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Ramona, Durham, Tampa and Roxbury.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central
Kansas.

&&

LAT...LON 3835 9737 3848 9754 3861 9743 3861 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 2154Z 224DEG 48KT 3847 9739

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
507 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0459 PM     TSTM WND GST     RUSSELL AIRPORT         38.87N 98.82W
04/29/2022  M68 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   ASOS

            ASOS STATION KRSL RUSSELL MUNICIPAL AIRPORT.

&&

JC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
553 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST 6 N SYLVAN GROVE        39.10N 98.39W
04/29/2022  M63 MPH          LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            BLOWING DUST REPORTED WITH WIND.

&&

KEVIN.DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
605 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

KSZ032-292345-
Russell KS-
605 PM CDT Fri Apr 29 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Russell County
through 645 PM CDT...

At 605 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles west of Luray, or 11 miles north of Russell, moving northeast
at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Russell, Lucas, Gorham, Luray, Dorrance, Bunker Hill, Paradise,
Waldo, Wilson State Park, Wilson Lake and Russell Airport.

This includes Interstate 70 between Mile Markers 175 and 204.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9904 3913 9850 3885 9849 3875 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 224DEG 49KT 3905 9889

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

KETCHAM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
657 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     NON-TSTM WND GST RUSSELL                 38.89N 98.85W
04/29/2022  M71 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   ASOS

&&

KEVIN.DARMOFAL