Flash Flood Warning 5, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

706 
WGUS72 KGSP 261820
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
220 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

NCC087-262100-
/O.CON.KGSP.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220526T2100Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Haywood NC-
220 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS 
AFTERNOON FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY...

At 220 PM EDT, Emergency management reported out of bank stream 
conditions along the Little East Fork.  Additional flooding of 
low-lying areas along the West Fork Pigeon River will also be likely 
through mid and late-afternoon.


HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms producing
         flash flooding.

SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
         urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Black Balsam Area, Graveyard Fields, B.R. Parkway-Black Balsam To 
  Mount Pisgah, B.R. Parkway-Balsam Gap To Black Balsam Area, 
  Sunburst and Cruso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8298 3541 8296 3544 8295 3546 8294
      3546 8293 3546 8290 3545 8287 3544 8282
      3541 8280 3536 8280 3532 8283 3531 8288
      3531 8290 3529 8292 3530 8293 3531 8295
      3532 8296 3534 8297 3534 8298

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

CSH

873 
WGUS52 KGSP 262029
FFWGSP
NCC087-270000-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220527T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
429 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended 
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Haywood County in western North Carolina...

* Until 800 PM EDT.

* At 429 PM EDT, At 420 PM EDT, Emergency management reported 
  rapidly rising stream
  levels and minor flooding along the West Fork Pigeon River after 
  about 2 to 3 inches of basin average rainfall has fallen.  Expect 
  continued rising of streams and river levels this this evening as 
  rounds of heavy rainfall will return to the area.  Developing out 
  of bank conditions are likely, especially above Lake Logan.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Black Balsam Area, Graveyard Fields, B.R. Parkway-Black Balsam To 
  Mount Pisgah, B.R. Parkway-Balsam Gap To Black Balsam Area, 
  Sunburst and Cruso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8298 3541 8296 3544 8295 3546 8294
      3546 8293 3546 8290 3545 8287 3544 8282
      3541 8280 3536 8280 3532 8283 3531 8288
      3531 8290 3529 8292 3530 8293 3531 8295
      3532 8296 3534 8297 3534 8298

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

Krentz

257 
WGUS52 KGSP 262355
FFWGSP
NCC087-270200-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220527T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
755 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended 
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Haywood County in western North Carolina...

* Until 1000 PM EDT.

* At 755 PM EDT, elevated stream levels continue along the west and 
  east forks of the Pigeon River.  Some additional rises are 
  expected over the next 1-2 hours but levels are expected to remain 
  below Minor Flood Stage.  New rounds of rainfall are expected 
  later tonight and new rounds of flooding may develop.  Please stay 
  weather aware.

  HAZARD...Life threatening flash flooding. Thunderstorms
           producing flash flooding.

  SOURCE...Emergency management reported.

  IMPACT...Life threatening flash flooding of creeks and streams,
           urban areas, highways, streets and underpasses.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Black Balsam Area, Graveyard Fields, B.R. Parkway-Black Balsam To 
  Mount Pisgah, B.R. Parkway-Balsam Gap To Black Balsam Area, 
  Sunburst and Cruso.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3537 8298 3541 8296 3544 8295 3546 8294
      3546 8293 3546 8290 3545 8287 3544 8282
      3541 8280 3536 8280 3532 8283 3531 8288
      3531 8290 3529 8292 3530 8293 3531 8295
      3532 8296 3534 8297 3534 8298

FLASH FLOOD...OBSERVED
FLASH FLOOD DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE

$$

JMP

942 
WGUS72 KGSP 270158
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
958 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

NCC087-270208-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0005.000000T0000Z-220527T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Haywood NC-
958 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR 
SOUTHEASTERN HAYWOOD COUNTY...

The initial flash flood threat has ended, but streams remain 
elevated.  Therefore the Flash Flood Warning has been replaced with 
a Flood Advisory.

Be aware that additional heavy rainfall is expected overnight
    tonight.  This rainfall may be significant and produce new
    rounds of flash flooding.  Due to elevated stream flows,
    there is the potential for more significant flash flooding
    tonight.  Therefore, residents and campers in the area from
    Canton to Cruso, Sunburst, Retreat, and Lake Logan may need
    to consider staying on higher ground away from streams
    overnight tonight until the threat has passed later Friday
    morning.  Flash flooding may develop quickly and give you
    little time to evacuate.  If you are at a campground adjacent
    to a stream and heavy rain begins tonight, seek higher ground
    immediately and do not wait for a Flash Flood Warning to be
    issued.

LAT...LON 3537 8298 3541 8296 3544 8295 3546 8294
      3546 8293 3546 8290 3545 8287 3544 8282
      3541 8280 3536 8280 3532 8283 3531 8288
      3531 8290 3529 8292 3530 8293 3531 8295
      3532 8296 3534 8297 3534 8298

$$

JMP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
201 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will trigger widespread showers and
thunderstorms through Friday morning, prompting severe weather
and excessive rainfall concerns.  After the passage of the cold
front by midday Friday, high pressure builds in for the weekend,
and looks to dominate through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1150 AM EDT: Still no major changes needed this update as the
forecast remains on track. KGSP radar continues to show light to
moderate showers tracking northward across mainly the western CWA
this morning. A few embedded thunderstorms are noted near Abbeville
and Greenwood SC this morning. So far, 2 to 3 inches of rain has
fallen from Clayton Georgia to Lake Toxaway NC. Went ahead and
adjusted the rainfall totals slightly in the Flash Flood Watch to
account for these totals. So now have the potential to see up to 4
inches of rainfall across portions of the NC mtns with isolated
pockets of 6 inches in the favored SW upslope areas in the NC mtns.
The slight risk from SPC was expanded across portions of the CWA
earlier this morning. Have seen higher SBCAPE values,(500-1,000
J/kg), slowly creep northward across the SC Upstate and NE GA. Winds
are now mainly ESE/SE'ly across much of the CWA due to the slow
eroding of the wedge boundary.

Otherwise, we have been anticipating an active period late in the
week with model guidance cutting off a deep upper low over the
Plains and then moving it slowly east to the lower Ohio Valley
region through tonight. Ahead of this upper low, the Gulf of Mexico
is wide open with moisture transport bringing a plume of high
Precipitable Water above 1.75 inches/150% of normal across the fcst
area ahead of a cold front today and into Friday morning. All manner
of forcing will act upon this deep sub-tropical moisture plume to
bring widespread waves of rain from the south through today and
tonight as the front approaches from the west. The signals are there
for excessive rain, particularly in the south/southeast upslope
areas along/near the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Rain over the last
several days has probably been enough to raise the soil moisture
across enough of the region, particularly extreme northeast GA, the
srn/central mountains of NC, and along the Escarpment, to allow for
an increased potential for flash flooding. If anything, the QPF is
more likely to be a bit on the low side. With this in mind, the
course of least regret was to issue a Flash Flood Watch to run
through noon Friday for the mtns/foothills. Meanwhile...we will also
have a severe thunderstorm threat. Altho lapse rates will be
relatively poor and most-unstable CAPE might only top out around 500-
1500 J/kg this afternoon and tonight, the eastward translation of a
southerly 40kt low level jet later today and tonight will bring
enough deep layer shear to be of concern (about 30-40 kt). And with
the old wedge boundary lifting back north across the area late today
to focus low level shear/helicity, there is cause for concern that
we could see some embedded mini-supercells with a brief tornado
risk, in addition to the wind damage risk in/around the
Slight/Marginal Risk in the new Day 1 Outlook. Some of the CAMs show
briefly rotating storms east of the mtns this afternoon/evening, so
an isolated brief tornado somewhere is a reasonable expectation, IF
we can manage sfc-based CAPE above 500 J/kg and then allow for some
storms to develop without too much interference. The threat will
diminish later this evening, but will not completely go away until
the front is to our east, which will not happen before 12Z Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday: Convection looks to be minimal by
daybreak Friday.  Some residual instability may be present ahead of
the advancing cold front boundary, but by this point lapse rates
should be increasingly anemic as the upper low shifts eastward
and the better synoptic forcing dissipates.  That is to say, a
fair amount of rainfall is still expected, but coverage should be
diminished as the system will now be relying on low-level frontal
forcing paired with whatever weakening DPVA remains from aloft.
In any case, this boundary should move across the Piedmont/Upstate
quickly, making tracks east of the forecast area by late morning.
In the wake, NW flow will induce a weak CAA regime as dry high
pressure filters in behind the front, and rainfall will abate except
perhaps in the mountains, where lingering low-level moisture will
continue to fuel scattered light rain into the afternoon.

CAA along with any lingering postfrontal cloud cover may help
moderate high temperatures a bit on Friday.  Gustiness is possible
in the afternoon and evening when CAA looks to peak, especially at
sites downwind of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, but all indications
at this point keep those gusts well below advisory criteria; even
the 90th percentile NMB and GEFS fields do not warrant any wind
products Friday or Friday night.

Saturday looks to be a quiet day, with the upper low passing off the
NC-VA coast, and high pressure continuing to build at the surface.
Dry and capped profiles will inhibit any convective activity and
a developing Z500 ridge will allow temperatures to tick upward,
opening the door for a pleasant weekend forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Thursday: Not much change to the extended forecast
period.  By Sunday morning, a weakening upper low will be breaking
down into an open wave east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline, and Z500
heights over the Carolinas will be gently rising.  Ridging will
build across the eastern CONUS as a surface high slides eastward.
Model consensus has slowed progression of the surface high a bit
the last couple model runs, which may limit onshore moisture flux
and constrain any diurnal convective chances Monday afternoon.
By Tuesday, however, there is still decent confidence that the
surface high will be well enough offshore to support afternoon
diurnal showers and thunder in a pattern that persists through
Wednesday and into the end of the extended period.  With ridging
aloft developing into a veritable omega block, the environment
should be weakly sheared enough to limit any severe risk.
Temperatures should increase a category or so each afternoon,
allowing them to surge from near-normal on Sunday to well
above-normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A low pressure system located to the west is
leading to showers and thunderstorms across the western and central
fcst area this afternoon. Currently the eastern fcst area, including
KCLT, remains mostly dry outside of a few isolated showers.
Currently seeing mostly MVFR conditions with IFR conditions
continuing at KHKY as of 18Z. Shower and thunderstorm chances will
increase later this afternoon for the eastern zones. Have TEMPOs to
account for TSRA this afternoon with associated lowered vsby and cig
restrictions. KCLT may see VFR conditions develop later this
afternoon as the cold air wedge erodes. Elsewhere, MVFR to IFR
conditions can be expected this afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm
chances will continue off and on into early Friday morning across
the terminals. MVFR to IFR cigs and vsbys look to return overnight,
with the possibility of IFR conditions developing near daybreak.
Winds will generally be S/SE'ly through this afternoon, becoming
S/SW'ly overnight into Friday ahead of an approaching cold front.
Low end wind gusts are possible this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon.

Outlook: Behind the cold front, VFR conditions should return this
weekend into early next week as high pressure builds into the region.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-
     062>065-501>510.
SC...Flood Watch through Friday morning for SCZ101>103.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR/PM
NEAR TERM...AP/PM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...AP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
521 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-270930-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
521 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of North
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will bring occasional heavy
downpours to the mountains today and tonight. Some of the
thunderstorms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts
and frequent lightning the main threats. Strong gusty winds can be
expected across the ridgetops through tonight as a cold front moves
through.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ010-017-NCZ502-504-506-508-510-SCZ101>103-270930-
Rabun-Habersham-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
521 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Showers with thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in
number as they move across the region today and tonight in advance of
a cold front. A few of the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
will become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts the main
threat. However, wind shear will increase late this afternoon,
raising the possibility that an isolated tornado or two could develop
in some of the severe storms through the evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008>014-019-
104>109-270930-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
521 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the western
Piedmont of North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers with thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in
number as they move across the region today and tonight in advance of
a cold front. A few of the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
will become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts the main
threat. However, wind shear will increase late this afternoon,
raising the possibility that an isolated tornado or two could develop
in some of the severe storms through the evening hours. Some
localized flooding of urban areas and poor drainage areas is possible
where repeated thunderstorms move through, mainly this evening and
overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

PM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
154 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

SCZ011-261830-
Abbeville SC-
154 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...A THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
ABBEVILLE COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 153 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a thunderstorm with intense
lightning 13 miles west of Abbeville, or near Calhoun Falls, moving
northeast at 25 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Calhoun Falls, Due West, Lake Secession, Lowndesville, Lake Russell
and Antreville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

LAT...LON 3408 8264 3409 8264 3410 8266 3413 8267
      3414 8270 3425 8265 3436 8251 3439 8247
      3434 8233 3432 8232 3413 8251 3407 8256
      3406 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 1753Z 204DEG 23KT 3414 8260

WJM