Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

938 
WGUS52 KGSP 262033
FFWGSP
NCC099-175-SCC073-270000-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220527T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
433 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended 
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Jackson County in western North Carolina...
  Southwestern Transylvania County in western North Carolina...
  Northeastern Oconee County in upstate South Carolina...

* Until 800 PM EDT.

* At 433 PM EDT, At 430 PM EDT, Gauge reports that 5 to 6 inches of 
  rain have fallen along the Transylvania-Jackson county line while 
  doppler radar was indicating that additional heavy showers were 
  encroaching upon the region from the south. Flash flooding is 
  ongoing or expected to begin shortly within the warned area, 
  especially in the headwaters of the French Broad, Tuckasegee, 
  Whitewater, Toxaway and Chatooga River Basins.  Given the wet 
  conditions in the region, landslides and debris flows will be 
  possible as well.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Gauges reported.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Cashiers, Salem, Lake Toxaway, Gorges State Park, Lake Jocassee, 
  Jocassee Gorges, Devils Fork State Park, Black Balsam Area, B.R. 
  Parkway-Balsam Gap To Black Balsam Area, B.R. Parkway-Black Balsam 
  To Mount Pisgah, Sapphire, Bad Creek, Wolf Mountain and Balsam 
  Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rain is increasing the risk of landslides, especially in areas 
where slides have occurred in the past. Be especially alert if you 
are near a stream, especially at the base of a mountain or in a 
cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a sudden increase in 
streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is observed. When driving 
along roads where the terrain is steep or rocky, watch and listen 
for falling rocks, mud, trees and other debris.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 8314 3516 8305 3526 8307 3526 8297
      3531 8295 3529 8292 3532 8283 3522 8285
      3511 8285 3499 8294 3494 8292 3489 8293
      3487 8297 3493 8315 3494 8311 3495 8313
      3495 8311 3499 8310

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED

$$

Krentz

231 
WGUS52 KGSP 262353 RRA
FFWGSP
NCC099-175-SCC073-270200-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220527T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
753 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has extended 
the

* Flash Flood Warning for...
  Southeastern Jackson County in western North Carolina...
  Southwestern Transylvania County in western North Carolina...
  Northeastern Oconee County in upstate South Carolina...

* Until 1000 PM EDT.

* At 753 PM EDT, At 750 PM EDT, Gauge reports that 5 to 6 inches of 
  rain have fallen along the Transylvania-Jackson county line. Minor 
  flooding is ongoing or expected to begin shortly within the warned 
  area, especially in the headwaters of the French Broad, 
  Tuckasegee, Whitewater, Toxaway and Chattooga River Basins.  Given 
  the wet conditions in the region, landslides and debris flows will 
  be possible as well.

  HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

  SOURCE...Gauges reported.

  IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
           areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
           other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
  Cashiers, Salem, Lake Toxaway, Gorges State Park, Lake Jocassee, 
  Jocassee Gorges, Devils Fork State Park, Black Balsam Area, B.R. 
  Parkway-Balsam Gap To Black Balsam Area, B.R. Parkway-Black Balsam 
  To Mount Pisgah, Sapphire, Bad Creek, Wolf Mountain and Balsam 
  Grove.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rain is increasing the risk of landslides, especially in areas 
where slides have occurred in the past. Be especially alert if you 
are near a stream, especially at the base of a mountain or in a 
cove. Watch for loose-moving soil and rocks or a sudden increase in 
streamflow. Leave the area quickly if this is observed. When driving 
along roads where the terrain is steep or rocky, watch and listen 
for falling rocks, mud, trees and other debris.

In hilly terrain there are hundreds of low water crossings which are 
potentially dangerous in heavy rain. Do not attempt to cross flooded 
roads. Find an alternate route.

&&

LAT...LON 3505 8314 3516 8305 3526 8307 3526 8297
      3531 8295 3529 8292 3532 8283 3522 8285
      3511 8285 3499 8294 3494 8292 3489 8293
      3487 8297 3493 8315 3494 8311 3495 8313
      3495 8311 3499 8310

FLASH FLOOD...GAUGE INDICATED

$$

Krentz

516 
WGUS72 KGSP 270201
FFSGSP

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1001 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

NCC099-SCC073-270211-
/O.EXP.KGSP.FF.W.0004.000000T0000Z-220527T0200Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Jackson NC-Oconee SC-
1001 PM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS EXPIRED FOR SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON, 
SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN OCONEE COUNTIES...

The initial flash flood threat has ended, but streams remain 
elevated and near Minor Flood Stage.  Therefore the Flash Flood 
Warning is being replaced with a Flood Warning.

Be aware that additional heavy rainfall is expected overnight 
tonight.  This rainfall may be significant and produce new rounds of 
flash flooding.  Due to elevated stream flows, there is the 
potential for more significant flash flooding tonight.  Flash 
flooding may develop quickly and give you little time to evacuate.  
If you are at a campground adjacent to a stream and heavy rain 
begins tonight, seek higher ground
immediately and do not wait for a Flash Flood Warning to be issued.

LAT...LON 3505 8314 3516 8305 3526 8307 3526 8297
      3531 8295 3529 8292 3532 8283 3522 8285
      3511 8285 3499 8294 3494 8292 3489 8293
      3487 8297 3493 8315 3494 8311 3495 8313
      3495 8311 3499 8310

$$

JMP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1156 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching cold front will trigger widespread showers and
thunderstorms through Friday morning, prompting severe weather
and excessive rainfall concerns.  After the passage of the cold
front by midday Friday, high pressure builds in for the weekend,
and looks to dominate through the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1150 AM EDT: Still no major changes needed this update as the
forecast remains on track. KGSP radar continues to show light to
moderate showers tracking northward across mainly the western CWA
this morning. A few embedded thunderstorms are noted near Abbeville
and Greenwood SC this morning. So far, 2 to 3 inches of rain has
fallen from Clayton Georgia to Lake Toxaway NC. Went ahead and
adjusted the rainfall totals slightly in the Flash Flood Watch to
account for these totals. So now have the potential to see up to 4
inches of rainfall across portions of the NC mtns with isolated
pockets of 6 inches in the favored SW upslope areas in the NC mtns.
The slight risk from SPC was expanded across portions of the CWA
earlier this morning. Have seen higher SBCAPE values,(500-1,000
J/kg), slowly creep northward across the SC Upstate and NE GA. Winds
are now mainly ESE/SE'ly across much of the CWA due to the slow
eroding of the wedge boundary.

Otherwise, we have been anticipating an active period late in the
week with model guidance cutting off a deep upper low over the
Plains and then moving it slowly east to the lower Ohio Valley
region through tonight. Ahead of this upper low, the Gulf of Mexico
is wide open with moisture transport bringing a plume of high
Precipitable Water above 1.75 inches/150% of normal across the fcst
area ahead of a cold front today and into Friday morning. All manner
of forcing will act upon this deep sub-tropical moisture plume to
bring widespread waves of rain from the south through today and
tonight as the front approaches from the west. The signals are there
for excessive rain, particularly in the south/southeast upslope
areas along/near the Blue Ridge Escarpment. Rain over the last
several days has probably been enough to raise the soil moisture
across enough of the region, particularly extreme northeast GA, the
srn/central mountains of NC, and along the Escarpment, to allow for
an increased potential for flash flooding. If anything, the QPF is
more likely to be a bit on the low side. With this in mind, the
course of least regret was to issue a Flash Flood Watch to run
through noon Friday for the mtns/foothills. Meanwhile...we will also
have a severe thunderstorm threat. Altho lapse rates will be
relatively poor and most-unstable CAPE might only top out around 500-
1500 J/kg this afternoon and tonight, the eastward translation of a
southerly 40kt low level jet later today and tonight will bring
enough deep layer shear to be of concern (about 30-40 kt). And with
the old wedge boundary lifting back north across the area late today
to focus low level shear/helicity, there is cause for concern that
we could see some embedded mini-supercells with a brief tornado
risk, in addition to the wind damage risk in/around the
Slight/Marginal Risk in the new Day 1 Outlook. Some of the CAMs show
briefly rotating storms east of the mtns this afternoon/evening, so
an isolated brief tornado somewhere is a reasonable expectation, IF
we can manage sfc-based CAPE above 500 J/kg and then allow for some
storms to develop without too much interference. The threat will
diminish later this evening, but will not completely go away until
the front is to our east, which will not happen before 12Z Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday: Convection looks to be minimal by
daybreak Friday.  Some residual instability may be present ahead of
the advancing cold front boundary, but by this point lapse rates
should be increasingly anemic as the upper low shifts eastward
and the better synoptic forcing dissipates.  That is to say, a
fair amount of rainfall is still expected, but coverage should be
diminished as the system will now be relying on low-level frontal
forcing paired with whatever weakening DPVA remains from aloft.
In any case, this boundary should move across the Piedmont/Upstate
quickly, making tracks east of the forecast area by late morning.
In the wake, NW flow will induce a weak CAA regime as dry high
pressure filters in behind the front, and rainfall will abate except
perhaps in the mountains, where lingering low-level moisture will
continue to fuel scattered light rain into the afternoon.

CAA along with any lingering postfrontal cloud cover may help
moderate high temperatures a bit on Friday.  Gustiness is possible
in the afternoon and evening when CAA looks to peak, especially at
sites downwind of the Blue Ridge Escarpment, but all indications
at this point keep those gusts well below advisory criteria; even
the 90th percentile NMB and GEFS fields do not warrant any wind
products Friday or Friday night.

Saturday looks to be a quiet day, with the upper low passing off the
NC-VA coast, and high pressure continuing to build at the surface.
Dry and capped profiles will inhibit any convective activity and
a developing Z500 ridge will allow temperatures to tick upward,
opening the door for a pleasant weekend forecast.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Thursday: Not much change to the extended forecast
period.  By Sunday morning, a weakening upper low will be breaking
down into an open wave east of the Mid-Atlantic coastline, and Z500
heights over the Carolinas will be gently rising.  Ridging will
build across the eastern CONUS as a surface high slides eastward.
Model consensus has slowed progression of the surface high a bit
the last couple model runs, which may limit onshore moisture flux
and constrain any diurnal convective chances Monday afternoon.
By Tuesday, however, there is still decent confidence that the
surface high will be well enough offshore to support afternoon
diurnal showers and thunder in a pattern that persists through
Wednesday and into the end of the extended period.  With ridging
aloft developing into a veritable omega block, the environment
should be weakly sheared enough to limit any severe risk.
Temperatures should increase a category or so each afternoon,
allowing them to surge from near-normal on Sunday to well
above-normal by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Widespread IFR restrictions to begin, and
that should continue through the better part of the morning as
showers become more numerous around the region. Will not rule out
temporary LIFR ceilings. For the most part, the sfc winds will
be northeasterly, but KCLT will have to deal with an easterly
cross-wind. For the most part, the wind has prevailed from the
ESE there during the early morning hours, so that direction
will probably continue through the time the wedge boundary lifts
northward. As this happens, ceiling restrictions should lift to
MVFR and wind comes around to SE. Most terminals will remain with
an MVFR ceiling restriction for the duration of daylight, but KCLT
is likely to break out or lift to VFR in the mid-afternoon as
they become un-wedged. A shower could form at any time, but the
convection-allowing models are keying on a band of forcing and
showers/thunderstorms translating east across the region in the
mid-afternoon to early evening. This will be handled with prevailing
MVFR/tempo IFR visibility/ceiling in showers/thunderstorms. After
the main band moves through, ceiling/vis will remain IFR/MVFR due
to extensive low level moisture, forcing, and shower activity,
but wind will be southerly.

Outlook: The cold front will move through the forecast area on
Friday, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms as it passes
with widespread MVFR/IFR restrictions. In the wake of the front,
VFR conditions should return for the weekend and early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flood Watch through Friday morning for GAZ010-017.
NC...Flood Watch through Friday morning for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-
     062>065-501>510.
SC...Flood Watch through Friday morning for SCZ101>103.

&&

SYNOPSIS...MPR/PM
NEAR TERM...AP/PM
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...MPR
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
521 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-270930-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
521 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the mountains of North
Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will bring occasional heavy
downpours to the mountains today and tonight. Some of the
thunderstorms may become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts
and frequent lightning the main threats. Strong gusty winds can be
expected across the ridgetops through tonight as a cold front moves
through.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ010-017-NCZ502-504-506-508-510-SCZ101>103-270930-
Rabun-Habersham-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
521 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, western
North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flood Watch.

Showers with thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in
number as they move across the region today and tonight in advance of
a cold front. A few of the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
will become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts the main
threat. However, wind shear will increase late this afternoon,
raising the possibility that an isolated tornado or two could develop
in some of the severe storms through the evening hours.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-SCZ008>014-019-
104>109-270930-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union NC-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Union SC-Chester-Greenwood-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Central Greenville-Southern Greenville-
Northern Spartanburg-Southern Spartanburg-
521 AM EDT Thu May 26 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, the western
Piedmont of North Carolina, and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Showers with thunderstorms are expected to develop and increase in
number as they move across the region today and tonight in advance of
a cold front. A few of the thunderstorms this afternoon and evening
will become strong to severe with damaging wind gusts the main
threat. However, wind shear will increase late this afternoon,
raising the possibility that an isolated tornado or two could develop
in some of the severe storms through the evening hours. Some
localized flooding of urban areas and poor drainage areas is possible
where repeated thunderstorms move through, mainly this evening and
overnight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information about
observed severe weather to the NWS while following all local, state,
and CDC guidelines.

PM