Severe Thunderstorm Warning 51, NWS Green Bay, WI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
318 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Storms have been moving E/SE across southern Minnesota this
afternoon. Overall, complex is moving east, but newest development
is on the southern end, near the warm front/moisture/instability
gradient. A strip of pwats of 1.5 to 2.0 inches from southern MN,
into northeast IA, southwest WI, and northern IL. MLCAPEs are also
highest here. Expect the leading line of convection to continue
tracking along this gradient, but there is still some uncertainly
on how much farther north it will move. Additionally, more
development has started behind the main storms and has started to
fill in. This also warrants watching, as the severe threat may be
not as high, but could lead to training rain/storms and potential
flooding concerns later this evening and overnight.

Late afternoon and evening...As convection tracks east and warm
front edges northward expect thunderstorms to enter central
WI (southwest part of the GRB forecast area) over the next hour,
and then continue eastward along the southern tier or two of
counties into the evening. The threat is greatest south of Hwy 10
for severe storms, with damaging winds the main threat. A few
tornadoes, hail, and heavy rains are also possible. Farther north,
still expecting rain and thunder/lightning but the threat for
severe thunderstorms is lower.

Late evening and overnight...Meso models, particularly the HRRR,
have a fairly good sense of the current convection. Following
their trends eastward, the main complex moves east of the area
and over Lake Michigan by 01/02Z. Behind this, the trend has been
increasing to see additional development of rain and
thunderstorms. Given high pwats there could be heavy rains among
this, with possible training and flooding concern, once again
focused south of Hwy 10. This would likely be a very localized
concern depending on where individual cells setup, but localized
amounts of 2 to 3 inches or more are possible. There are a few
features that will lead to continued larger scale forcing,
including entrance region of upper jet, and a developing LL jet
feeding additional moisture into WI ahead of the sfc cold front
through the night. Instability will likely have waned by this time
due to the earlier convection and loss of daytime heating, so
expect heavy rain/flooding to be the main threat overnight.

Temperatures will remain mild overnight with lows mainly in the
60s.

Sunday...Some lingering showers are possible a little after
sunrise, but dry weather is expected for the most part followed by
clearing skies in the afternoon. The exception is across northern
WI where a shortwave brushing across the area in the afternoon
could generate isolated afternoon showers. Some of the meso
models also show this development. Added very low PoPs across the
north to account for this. Otherwise, the rest of the area will be
dry. Highs will be closer to normal ranging from the low 70s in
the north to around 80 degrees in the Fox Valley.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

High pressure should bring dry conditions and cooler than normal
temperatures for the beginning of the work week.

A cold front and associated short-wave trough will bring the next
chance of showers later Tuesday into early Wednesday. The best
chance of showers will occur Tuesday night. Instability appears to
be fairly meager, so only expecting isolated to scattered
embedded storms at this time. Additional short-wave activity is
expected to bring another chance of showers and isolated storms
Thursday into early Thursday night.

High pressure returns for Friday and Saturday, with pleasant
summertime weather anticipated for the first part of the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

.KOSH...a complex of thunderstorms will move across east-central
Wisconsin late this afternoon or early this evening, with
additional thunderstorm activity expected during the remainder of
the evening into early Sunday morning. Current projections would
indicate the complex would reach KOSH between 6 pm and 8 pm.
Strong wind gusts over 40 knots are possible this cluster of
storms, along with poor visibility in the IFR category in the
stronger thunderstorms. Currently have wind gusts to 40 knots in
the 18z TAF, but will need to monitor the situation and may need
to bump up the wind gusts if the strongest core of winds moves
over the airport. There is some model differences if the core
of strong winds will move over the airport or go just to the
south.

Once the first complex of storms moves through the area, additional
showers and thunderstorms will move across KOSH through the rest
of the evening into early Sunday morning. Once the rain exits the
region overnight, IFR CIGS are expected to develop and will
continue past sunrise. CIGS will gradually improve into the MVFR
category by mid to late morning, then VFR category Sunday
afternoon. Northwest winds will gust to around 25 knots Sunday
afternoon.

For the rest of the forecast area, a complex of thunderstorm will
move into portions of central and north-central Wisconsin between
3 pm and 6 pm and across northeast and east-central Wisconsin
between 5 pm and 8 pm. The strongest core of winds with the
thunderstorm complex will move south of a Marshfield to Algoma
line where wind gusts over 40 knots are possible. Torrential
rain will lead to poor visibilities in the IFR category in the
stronger storms. Once the complex of storms moves through the
area, additional shower and thunderstorms will continue into early
Sunday morning until the cold front moves east of the area. The
rain should end around 09z across eastern Wisconsin. IFR CIGs are
expected to develop late tonight and continue into Sunday morning.
CIGS will improve into the VFR category Sunday afternoon with
gusts to around 25 knots possible.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....KLJ
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Eckberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
244 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-241945-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
244 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into this
evening. Damaging wind is the main concern, but large hail,
tornadoes, and local flooding from heavy rain is also possible.
The greatest chance of severe storms and heavy rain will be in
central Wisconsin and the southern Fox Valley between 4 pm and 10
pm. The flooding threat would likely occur later in the evening
and into the overnight period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from late Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday, but the threat of severe weather
appears to be low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation could be needed late this afternoon and evening.

LMZ521-522-541>543-241945-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
244 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms could produce strong winds, heavy rainfall, and
dangerous lightning, especially this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Any storms would pose a hazard to boaters.

KLJ/Kieckbusch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
442 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             5 SW COLOMA             43.98N 89.59W
07/23/2022  U0.50 INCH       WAUSHARA           WI   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
503 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     TSTM WND GST     WAUTOMA                 44.06N 89.28W
07/23/2022  M38 MPH          WAUSHARA           WI   AWOS

&&

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
547 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIZ031-037>039-232330-
Waupaca WI-Shawano WI-Outagamie WI-Brown WI-
547 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Brown,
southeastern Waupaca, Outagamie and eastern Shawano Counties through
630 PM CDT...

At 546 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
New London, or 16 miles east of Waupaca, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Black Creek around 615 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Nichols, Leeman, Hofa
Park, Northport, Sugar Bush, Rose Lawn, Kunesh, Lambeau Field, Wolf
River Bottoms Wildlife Area and Hobart.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4442 8891 4469 8824 4467 8823 4468 8810
      4450 8796 4424 8869 4424 8877
TIME...MOT...LOC 2246Z 243DEG 32KT 4436 8874

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Kieckbusch