Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Green Bay, WI

494 
WWUS53 KGRB 230531
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1231 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIC009-061-083-230600-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-220723T0600Z/
Brown WI-Kewaunee WI-Oconto WI-
1231 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWN...NORTHWESTERN KEWAUNEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL
OCONTO COUNTIES...

At 1230 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles west of
Bay Shore Park, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe storm will be near...
  Bay Shore Park around 1255 AM CDT.
  Luxemburg around 110 AM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this severe thunderstorm include Little
Suamico, Red Banks, Sobieski, Champion, Dyckesville, Thiry Daems,
Neuern, Lincoln, Duvall and Casco.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4468 8812 4478 8804 4475 8790 4474 8789
      4471 8792 4463 8793 4468 8781 4470 8779
      4469 8776 4468 8775 4464 8759 4448 8771
TIME...MOT...LOC 0530Z 295DEG 23KT 4469 8801 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...1.00 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

RDM

247 
WWUS53 KGRB 230541
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1241 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIC009-061-083-230550-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0048.000000T0000Z-220723T0600Z/
Brown WI-Kewaunee WI-Oconto WI-
1241 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN BROWN...
NORTHWESTERN KEWAUNEE AND SOUTH CENTRAL OCONTO COUNTIES IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However gusty winds are
still possible with this thunderstorm.

LAT...LON 4468 8812 4478 8804 4475 8790 4474 8789
      4471 8792 4463 8793 4468 8781 4470 8779
      4469 8776 4468 8775 4464 8759 4448 8771
TIME...MOT...LOC 0539Z 295DEG 23KT 4466 8792 

$$

RDM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1111 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

Updated aviation portion for 06Z TAF issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Saturday
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

The main focus of the short term forecast is the incoming
convective complex/potential starting Saturday afternoon. Fairly
quiet weather for the next 24 hours leading up to this event.

This Evening and Overnight...Current satellite imagery shows a few
daytime cumulus clouds developing across the area, but most
places are still fairly clear, and will remain that way through
the night. A couple meso models, primarily the HRRR, show a small
area of showers or thunderstorms developing across the middle of
the state this evening, which includes the southern counties of
the GRB forecast area. Not much forcing around, maybe a small
amount of warm advection, so kept very small PoPs in the southern
forecast area for this evening. If a thunderstorm forms severe
weather is not expected.

Otherwise, it will be mild night with lows in the 60s and light
winds.

Saturday...The initial weather impact will be the increasing
humidity and heat index values. Southwesterly low level flow will
lead to an increase in moisture throughout the day, particularly
in the southern half of the GRB forecast area. Highs will range
from the middle 80s to lower 90s, warmest across central WI. Heat
index values will be in the upper 80s to middle 90s. As the warm
front (bringing this moisture northward) arrives, a cold front
will also be sagging south across the state, with a mid-level
shortwave approaching from the northwest. All this will act to
develop convection on Saturday, likely starting farther west
across Minnesota. Questions arise as to how the storms will evolve
and where they will track. Models have become a little less
certain on where this moisture will pool/instability gradient will
line up across the state, making it more difficult to assess where
a complex of thunderstorms will most likely track. Meso models in
general have trended farther south, with the the northern edge of
a complex clipping the southern CWA, central WI into southern Fox
Valley, starting mid to late afternoon, around or after 21Z. The
main threat will be damaging winds as a complex is likely by the
time this activity reaches this area. Embedded tornadoes, heavy
rain, and perhaps some hail is also possible. This activity
continues into the long term portion of the forecast.

.LONG TERM...Saturday Night Through Friday
Issued at 339 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

A QLCS will likely be ongoing Saturday evening or entering the
western portion of the forecast area. There are still model
differences in how far north this system will track; however,
there seems to be a bit of a southward trend among the hi-res
models. The general thinking is the area most likely to see this
system will be south of highway 29. MUCAPE values will soar to
3-4 J/g along with bulk shear values of 40 to 60 knots. The main
threat will be damaging winds, with large hail also possible but a
secondary threat. 0-3 km shear vectors indicate there could also
be a few QLCS tornadoes if any part of the line becomes orthogonal
to the shear vector. Some isolated flooding is possible given the
high PWAT values of 1.5 to 2 inches, with the fast moving nature
of the system limiting the flood potential.

The main severe weather event should move through rather quickly,
with the line through the cwa by midnight. Behind the line
additional thunderstorms could develop later Saturday evening into
the overnight hours; however, these additional showers and
thunderstorms are not expected to be severe.

Some isolated showers and thunderstorms could linger behind the
departing low pressure system on Sunday, but the bulk of the area
should remain dry. Temperatures should also fall a good 5 to 10
degrees as compared to Saturday across the region.

High pressure will then keep the weather dry to start the work
week as temperatures hover around normal for this time of year.
The next chance for rain will be Tuesday night through Wednesday
night as another cold front tracks through the region, followed by
dry weather to end next week as another high pressure system
builds in behind the departing low Thursday and Friday.
&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1109 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

VFR conditions are expected through about 21Z Saturday, then an
approaching frontal system, in concert with a very unstable
airmass will initiate robust thunderstorm activity somewhere over
the southern half of Minnesota by early afternoon Saturday.

There is still much uncertainty as to when and where the initial
thunderstorms will develop and their expected track. Latest
thinking is that the strongest storms will begin to impact
western and perhaps Central Wisconsin somewhere in the 19Z to 22Z
time period, then rapidly propagate southeast primarily south of
Highway 29 thereafter. It appears that this storm complex will
likely reach severe limits with damaging winds and large hail the
primary threats. Monitor subsequent forecast updates.

Additional occasional shower and thunderstorm activity is
expected elsewhere over the forecast area ahead of a cold front,
mainly after 00Z Sunday and will likely persist through the end of
the TAF period and especially south of Highway 29.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....KLJ
LONG TERM......Kurimski
AVIATION.......ESB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
254 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-232000-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
254 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

There is a very small chance of a couple non-severe thunderstorms
south of highway 29 this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon into
Saturday night. Damaging wind is the main concern. Large hail,
a few brief tornadoes, and locally flooding from heavy rain are
also possible.

Additional thunderstorms are possible Tuesday night into
Wednesday. It is too early to determine if these storms will be
severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed tonight.

LMZ521-522-541>543-232000-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
254 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Friday

There is a slight chance of thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening. Thunderstorms are likely Saturday night and again Wednesday.
Any storms would pose a hazard to boaters.

KLJ/Kurimski

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
1142 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

WIZ022-031-039-040-073-074-230530-
Southern Oconto County WI-Southern Marinette County WI-Shawano WI-
Kewaunee WI-Door WI-Brown WI-
1142 PM CDT Fri Jul 22 2022

...Thunderstorms will impact portions of northern Brown,
northwestern Kewaunee, southern Marinette, Door, southern Oconto and
eastern Shawano Counties through 1230 AM CDT...

At 1141 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstorms along a
line extending from 5 miles west of Marinette to Oconto to near
Embarrass. Movement was east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Oconto around 1145 PM CDT.
  Pulaski around 1215 AM CDT.
  Sturgeon Bay around 1220 AM CDT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4484 8718 4471 8730 4451 8814 4453 8819
      4459 8819 4459 8835 4473 8875 4491 8790
      4508 8776 4507 8752 4506 8752 4494 8759
      4490 8777 4471 8792 4463 8793 4469 8780
      4487 8765 4494 8745 4506 8737 4504 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 0441Z 288DEG 32KT 4507 8780 4490 8784 4473 8868

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

RDM