Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Green Bay, WI

332 
WWUS53 KGRB 232222
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
522 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIC137-139-232315-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-220723T2315Z/
Winnebago WI-Waushara WI-
522 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR WINNEBAGO AND SOUTHEASTERN WAUSHARA COUNTIES...

At 522 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Redgranite to Berlin to near Ripon, moving northeast
at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

These severe storms will be near...
  Rush Lake around 530 PM CDT.
  Lake Poygan around 535 PM CDT.
  Oshkosh around 545 PM CDT.
  Central Lake Winnebago around 555 PM CDT.
  Appleton, Menasha and Northern Lake Winnebago around 600 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Pickett, Butte Des Morts, Larsen, Lake Butte Des Morts, Rivermoor,
Borth, Winneconne, Harbor Springs, Allenville and Lake Butte Des Mor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4398 8889 4399 8927 4424 8870 4424 8840
      4389 8841 4389 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2222Z 242DEG 49KT 4404 8908 4394 8897 4381 8889 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Kurimski

557 
WWUS53 KGRB 232229
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
529 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIC137-139-232315-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-220723T2315Z/
Winnebago WI-Waushara WI-
529 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR WINNEBAGO AND SOUTHEASTERN WAUSHARA COUNTIES...

At 529 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles east of Redgranite to near Berlin to near
Ripon, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe storms will be near...
  Oshkosh and EAA around 550 PM CDT.
  Central Lake Winnebago around 555 PM CDT.
  Appleton, Menasha and Northern Lake Winnebago around 600 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Pickett, Butte Des Morts, Larsen, Lake Butte Des Morts, Rivermoor,
Borth, Winneconne, Harbor Springs, Allenville and Lake Butte Des Mor.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4398 8889 4399 8927 4424 8870 4424 8840
      4389 8841 4389 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 242DEG 49KT 4408 8898 4398 8887 4385 8880 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Kurimski

617 
WWUS53 KGRB 232239
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
539 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIC137-232249-
/O.CAN.KGRB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-220723T2315Z/
Waushara WI-
539 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WAUSHARA COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central and east central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4395 8889 4416 8888 4424 8870 4424 8840
      4389 8841 4389 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 248DEG 45KT 4414 8880 4409 8872 4402 8867 4396
8871 4386 8864

$$

WIC139-232315-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-220723T2315Z/
Winnebago WI-
539 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR WINNEBAGO COUNTY...

At 539 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Lake Poygan to 14 miles southeast of Fremont to
near Oshkosh to 7 miles northeast of Rush Lake to near Rosendale,
moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe storms will be near...
  Oshkosh and EAA around 545 PM CDT.
  Menasha, Northern Lake Winnebago and Central Lake Winnebago around 
  600 PM CDT.
  Appleton around 605 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Pickett, Butte Des Morts, Larsen, Lake Butte Des Morts, Rivermoor,
Winneconne, Harbor Springs, Allenville, Lake Butte Des Mor and Fisk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4395 8889 4416 8888 4424 8870 4424 8840
      4389 8841 4389 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 248DEG 45KT 4414 8880 4409 8872 4402 8867 4396
8871 4386 8864

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Kurimski

845 
WWUS53 KGRB 232245
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
545 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIC139-232315-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-220723T2315Z/
Winnebago WI-
545 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR WINNEBAGO COUNTY...

At 544 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles northeast of Lake Poygan to 10 miles west of
Menasha to 9 miles northwest of Central Lake Winnebago to near
Oshkosh to 8 miles northwest of Southern Lake Winnebago, moving
northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

These severe storms will be near...
  Menasha and Central Lake Winnebago around 555 PM CDT.
  Appleton and Northern Lake Winnebago around 600 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by these severe thunderstorms include
Pickett, Butte Des Morts, Larsen, Lake Butte Des Morts, Rivermoor, 
Winneconne, EAA, Harbor Springs, Allenville, Lake Butte Des Mor and 
Fisk.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

If on or near Lake Winnebago, get away from the water and move 
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to 
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you 
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter 
now!  Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4395 8889 4416 8888 4424 8870 4424 8840
      4389 8841 4389 8888
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 235DEG 51KT 4421 8871 4416 8863 4409 8858 4403
8862 4393 8855

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Kurimski

101 
WWUS53 KGRB 232300
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
600 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIC139-232315-
/O.CON.KGRB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-220723T2315Z/
Winnebago WI-
600 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR WINNEBAGO COUNTY...

At 559 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 9 miles northwest of Menasha to Appleton to near High
Cliff State Park to near Northern Lake Winnebago to near Central Lake
Winnebago, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Appleton, Oshkosh, Menasha, Central Lake Winnebago, Northern Lake
Winnebago, Neenah, Pickett, Butte Des Morts, Larsen and Lake Butte
Des Morts.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms are producing widespread 
wind damage across Winnebago County. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a 
sturdy structure and stay away from windows.
 
If on or near Lake Winnebago, get away from the water and move 
indoors or inside a vehicle. remember, lightning can strike out to 
15 miles from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you 
are close enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter 
now!  Do not be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4395 8875 4417 8864 4424 8870 4424 8840
      4389 8841 4389 8875
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 241DEG 49KT 4432 8854 4426 8842 4419 8833 4411
8831 4401 8833

THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE THREAT...CONSIDERABLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...<.75 IN
WIND THREAT...OBSERVED
MAX WIND GUST...70 MPH

$$

Kurimski

338 
WWUS53 KGRB 232310
SVSGRB

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
610 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIC139-232320-
/O.EXP.KGRB.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-220723T2315Z/
Winnebago WI-
610 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WINNEBAGO COUNTY WILL EXPIRE
AT 615 PM CDT...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
east central Wisconsin.

LAT...LON 4395 8875 4417 8864 4424 8870 4424 8840
      4389 8841 4389 8875
TIME...MOT...LOC 2310Z 242DEG 43KT 4438 8840 4432 8828 4425 8819 4417
8817 4407 8819

$$

Kurimski

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
318 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Forecast discussion for routine afternoon forecast issuance

.SHORT TERM...Tonight and Sunday
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

Storms have been moving E/SE across southern Minnesota this
afternoon. Overall, complex is moving east, but newest development
is on the southern end, near the warm front/moisture/instability
gradient. A strip of pwats of 1.5 to 2.0 inches from southern MN,
into northeast IA, southwest WI, and northern IL. MLCAPEs are also
highest here. Expect the leading line of convection to continue
tracking along this gradient, but there is still some uncertainly
on how much farther north it will move. Additionally, more
development has started behind the main storms and has started to
fill in. This also warrants watching, as the severe threat may be
not as high, but could lead to training rain/storms and potential
flooding concerns later this evening and overnight.

Late afternoon and evening...As convection tracks east and warm
front edges northward expect thunderstorms to enter central
WI (southwest part of the GRB forecast area) over the next hour,
and then continue eastward along the southern tier or two of
counties into the evening. The threat is greatest south of Hwy 10
for severe storms, with damaging winds the main threat. A few
tornadoes, hail, and heavy rains are also possible. Farther north,
still expecting rain and thunder/lightning but the threat for
severe thunderstorms is lower.

Late evening and overnight...Meso models, particularly the HRRR,
have a fairly good sense of the current convection. Following
their trends eastward, the main complex moves east of the area
and over Lake Michigan by 01/02Z. Behind this, the trend has been
increasing to see additional development of rain and
thunderstorms. Given high pwats there could be heavy rains among
this, with possible training and flooding concern, once again
focused south of Hwy 10. This would likely be a very localized
concern depending on where individual cells setup, but localized
amounts of 2 to 3 inches or more are possible. There are a few
features that will lead to continued larger scale forcing,
including entrance region of upper jet, and a developing LL jet
feeding additional moisture into WI ahead of the sfc cold front
through the night. Instability will likely have waned by this time
due to the earlier convection and loss of daytime heating, so
expect heavy rain/flooding to be the main threat overnight.

Temperatures will remain mild overnight with lows mainly in the
60s.

Sunday...Some lingering showers are possible a little after
sunrise, but dry weather is expected for the most part followed by
clearing skies in the afternoon. The exception is across northern
WI where a shortwave brushing across the area in the afternoon
could generate isolated afternoon showers. Some of the meso
models also show this development. Added very low PoPs across the
north to account for this. Otherwise, the rest of the area will be
dry. Highs will be closer to normal ranging from the low 70s in
the north to around 80 degrees in the Fox Valley.

.LONG TERM...Sunday Night Through Saturday
Issued at 317 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

High pressure should bring dry conditions and cooler than normal
temperatures for the beginning of the work week.

A cold front and associated short-wave trough will bring the next
chance of showers later Tuesday into early Wednesday. The best
chance of showers will occur Tuesday night. Instability appears to
be fairly meager, so only expecting isolated to scattered
embedded storms at this time. Additional short-wave activity is
expected to bring another chance of showers and isolated storms
Thursday into early Thursday night.

High pressure returns for Friday and Saturday, with pleasant
summertime weather anticipated for the first part of the weekend.
&&

.AVIATION...for 18Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1121 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

.KOSH...a complex of thunderstorms will move across east-central
Wisconsin late this afternoon or early this evening, with
additional thunderstorm activity expected during the remainder of
the evening into early Sunday morning. Current projections would
indicate the complex would reach KOSH between 6 pm and 8 pm.
Strong wind gusts over 40 knots are possible this cluster of
storms, along with poor visibility in the IFR category in the
stronger thunderstorms. Currently have wind gusts to 40 knots in
the 18z TAF, but will need to monitor the situation and may need
to bump up the wind gusts if the strongest core of winds moves
over the airport. There is some model differences if the core
of strong winds will move over the airport or go just to the
south.

Once the first complex of storms moves through the area, additional
showers and thunderstorms will move across KOSH through the rest
of the evening into early Sunday morning. Once the rain exits the
region overnight, IFR CIGS are expected to develop and will
continue past sunrise. CIGS will gradually improve into the MVFR
category by mid to late morning, then VFR category Sunday
afternoon. Northwest winds will gust to around 25 knots Sunday
afternoon.

For the rest of the forecast area, a complex of thunderstorm will
move into portions of central and north-central Wisconsin between
3 pm and 6 pm and across northeast and east-central Wisconsin
between 5 pm and 8 pm. The strongest core of winds with the
thunderstorm complex will move south of a Marshfield to Algoma
line where wind gusts over 40 knots are possible. Torrential
rain will lead to poor visibilities in the IFR category in the
stronger storms. Once the complex of storms moves through the
area, additional shower and thunderstorms will continue into early
Sunday morning until the cold front moves east of the area. The
rain should end around 09z across eastern Wisconsin. IFR CIGs are
expected to develop late tonight and continue into Sunday morning.
CIGS will improve into the VFR category Sunday afternoon with
gusts to around 25 knots possible.
&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM.....KLJ
LONG TERM......Kieckbusch
AVIATION.......Eckberg

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
244 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-241945-
Vilas-Oneida-Forest-Florence-Northern Marinette County-Lincoln-
Langlade-Menominee-Northern Oconto County-Door-Marathon-Shawano-
Wood-Portage-Waupaca-Outagamie-Brown-Kewaunee-Waushara-Winnebago-
Calumet-Manitowoc-Southern Marinette County-
Southern Oconto County-
244 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north-central and northeast
Wisconsin.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon into this
evening. Damaging wind is the main concern, but large hail,
tornadoes, and local flooding from heavy rain is also possible.
The greatest chance of severe storms and heavy rain will be in
central Wisconsin and the southern Fox Valley between 4 pm and 10
pm. The flooding threat would likely occur later in the evening
and into the overnight period.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from late Tuesday
afternoon through Thursday, but the threat of severe weather
appears to be low at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation could be needed late this afternoon and evening.

LMZ521-522-541>543-241945-
The Bay of Green Bay south of a line from Cedar River MI to Rock
Island Passage-Lake Michigan from Washington Island to Sheboygan-
244 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Lake
Michigan and the waters of Green Bay.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Thunderstorms could produce strong winds, heavy rainfall, and
dangerous lightning, especially this evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Saturday

Thunderstorms will be possible at times from Tuesday night through
Thursday. Any storms would pose a hazard to boaters.

KLJ/Kieckbusch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
442 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     HAIL             5 SW COLOMA             43.98N 89.59W
07/23/2022  U0.50 INCH       WAUSHARA           WI   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
503 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     TSTM WND GST     WAUTOMA                 44.06N 89.28W
07/23/2022  M38 MPH          WAUSHARA           WI   AWOS

&&