Severe Thunderstorm Warning 132, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
655 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Very complex forecast over the next 18-24 hours, with multiple
waves of storms possibly rotating northward across the forecast
area through this afternoon/early evening, as an intensifying
mid-upper level trough lifts from Nebraska into South Dakota.
Extremely difficult to pin down timing of the potential waves,
though could be seeing the first signs of the next wave developing
in central Nebraska near the KLNX radar as of 09Z. While seeing
little consensus in timing among varoius CAMs at this point, there
is greater consensus in the potential for strong to severe storms
scattered along a line which lifts north through our South Dakota
counties. Early-mid morning activity may be more isolated, as it
will be moving through air mass which is still recovering from
overnight storms and favoring elevated convection, with isolated
large hail as the primary threat.

Storms which approach late morning through the afternoon more
likely to be on the stronger side as cap erodes and potential for
surface based activity increases. Steep mid level lapse rates and
robust deep layer shear expected, with the latter in response to
the increasing mid to upper level winds. Forecast hodographs are
largely linear, favoring damaging winds with small bowing
clusters. However, as storms approaching a northward moving warm
front, or develop along an eastward moving dry line, enhanced low
level shear may favor a more concentrated tornadic potential.

Although some differences in timing exist, general consensus shows
a diminishing severe threat across our forecast area by 8-9pm, if
not before.

Aside from the storms, the southerly low level jet will aid in
producing strong southerly winds across eastern portions of the
forecast area today. Could be marginal, but gusts near 45 mph are
possible near/east of a Yankton to Sioux Falls to Ivanhoe line.

Tonight, the surface/upper low lift north of the area, with cooler
westerly flow taking over. Moisture wrapping around the system
will keep a chance of showers or isolated non-severe thunderstorms
across western portions of the area tonight into early Tuesday.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 425 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Cooler air will dominate through midweek as the upper low lifts
into Canada and a cool front pushes southeast through the region
on Tuesday. We should then remain in a dry pattern through the
latter half of the work week, with temperatures slowly trending
toward seasonable levels. Subtle waves sliding through the west-
northwest upper level flow could bring a chance of precipitation
continued seasonably cool temperatures to the region next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 651 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

Scattered thunderstorm chances across the forecast area through
31/00Z-01Z this evening, with areas of MVFR-locally IFR ceilings
and visibility. Storms will have the potential for very strong
wind gusts and hail, mainly after 30/16Z, but have not included
in TAFs at this time due to uncertainty in timing.

Also looking for low level wind shear after 31/00Z as a strong
southwesterly low level jet develops. Also some uncertainty in
strength of this jet, though potential for 55-60kt or higher
within the lowest 2kft AGL.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     SDZ056-062-066-067-070-071.

MN...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.

IA...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.

NE...Wind Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     NEZ013-014.

&&

SHORT TERM...JH
LONG TERM...JH
AVIATION...JH

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
444 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-
098-NEZ013-014-SDZ038>040-050-052>071-310945-
Lyon-Osceola-Dickinson-Sioux-O'Brien-Clay-Plymouth-Cherokee-
Buena Vista-Woodbury-Ida-Lincoln-Murray-Cottonwood-Nobles-Jackson-
Pipestone-Rock-Dixon-Dakota-Beadle-Kingsbury-Brookings-Gregory-
Jerauld-Sanborn-Miner-Lake-Moody-Brule-Aurora-Davison-Hanson-
McCook-Minnehaha-Charles Mix-Douglas-Hutchinson-Turner-Bon Homme-
Yankton-Union-
444 AM CDT Mon May 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of northwest Iowa,
west central Iowa, southwest Minnesota, northeast Nebraska,
central South Dakota, east central South Dakota, south central
South Dakota, and southeast South Dakota.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Yet another round of severe weather appears likely today.
Isolated strong to severe storms are possible early this morning,
mainly west of I-29. However, the greater threat will come from
late morning into early this evening, though specific timing and
location details are still somewhat uncertain. All modes of severe
weather are possible today, including a few tornadoes, very large
hail, damaging winds, and perhaps localized flash flooding.

If you have outdoor plans for the Memorial Day holiday, be sure
to stay weather aware. Know where the nearest sturdy shelter is
located, and be prepared to seek shelter quickly should severe
storms develop.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is likely today, mainly between 10 am this
morning and 8 pm this evening.