Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
345 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...

Strong high pressure ridging is positioned over much of the eastern
CONUS, with the axis of the ridge to the immediate east of Georgia.
At the surface, broad high pressure is currently positioned just
offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast. With southeasterly low level
flow on the back side of his high, and the upper level flow
similarly gaining a southerly component, atmospheric moisture is
steadily increasing over the forecast area. Dewpoints are currently
in the low to mid 60s across the north and central Georgia. High
temperatures are expected to be between 2-6 degrees above
climatological normal, mainly in the upper 80s in north Georgia and
low 90s in central Georgia. Showers and thunderstorms continue to
push inland ahead of the southeasterly sea breeze, and PoPs are
forecast to be highest in east-central Georgia as a result. Isolated
airmass thunderstorms have begun to develop elsewhere across the
area, warranting slight chance PoPs across much of the remainder of
the forecast area. While shear profiles are negligible and mid-level
lapse rates are fairly weak, the combination of hot temperatures and
the humid airmass has allowed for ample destabilization and
SBCAPE values of 2000-3000 J/kg. Considering these values along
with DCAPE values approaching 1000 J/kg, there is the potential
for a few storms to become strong to severe, and capable of
producing gusty winds and frequent lightning.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to diminish in coverage with
the loss of diurnal heating this evening. With light winds and the
airmass becoming nearly saturated with temperatures dropping to near
the dewpoints, there is the potential for patchy fog in the early
morning hours. Fog is expected to be most likely in east-central
Georgia where the best precipitation coverage is forecast today.
With the surface high persisting to the east of Georgia on Tuesday,
a similar day is expected, with dewpoints in the 60s and high
temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s. Slight chance to chance
PoPs are once again expected in central Georgia during the afternoon
as diurnally driven thunderstorms develop. Drier mid-level and upper-
level air across north Georgia should serve to inhibit convection in
north Georgia on Tuesday, although an isolated shower or
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

King

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...

Forecast period starts out relatively benign as CWA is largely
moisture starved on Wednesday though the broad upper ridge dampens
and the next disturbance and translated weak sfc frontal system will
be pushing into the area from the NW Thursday/Friday. Have slight to
chance pops for general showers/thunderstorms accordingly. Models
then start to diverge in the solutions for next weekend. The GFS
holds onto a lingering moisture field across the region, while the
Euro brings in a tropical low tracking NEWD near the SE coast. Stuck
close to the NBM given the variation and uncertainty this far out
and ended up with some slight to low end chance pops in the SE for
Saturday, then have the slight pops extended some farther north and
west for Sunday.

Temps start out summerlike and above climo norms Wed/Thu with highs
generally in upper 80s to low 90s, then back closer to seasonable
for Friday into the weekend.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Primarily VFR conditions are in place across north and central
Georgia as the period begins, with a SCT-BKN cu field between
040-060 expected to persist through the afternoon. Scattered TSRA
associated with the sea breeze is moving northwestward towards
MCN, warranting a TEMPO for TSRA between 19-23Z. Isolated
SHRA/TSRA is expected elsewhere, with VCSH being maintained at the
ATL sites and AHN as a result. Some patchy fog will be possible
during the early morning hours after 10Z at AHN/MCN. Winds will be
mainly SE through the period, at 6-9 kts this afternoon,
diminishing to 5 kts or less during the overnight hours.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          66  89  66  92 /  10   5   5   5
Atlanta         67  88  68  90 /  10  10  10  10
Blairsville     62  84  62  86 /  10  10  10  20
Cartersville    66  89  66  91 /  10  10  10  10
Columbus        67  91  68  92 /  10  20  10  10
Gainesville     66  87  67  90 /  10  10   5  10
Macon           66  91  66  93 /  30  20  10  10
Rome            66  91  66  92 /  10  10   5  10
Peachtree City  64  89  65  90 /  20  10  10  10
Vidalia         68  90  68  92 /  20  40  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...King
LONG TERM....Baker
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1119 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311530-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1119 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening across central Georgia and portions of north Georgia.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing a few lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
and evening for most of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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