Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
157 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

.UPDATE...

Updated for the 18Z Aviation Discussion.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1111 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022/

UPDATE...

Low cloud ceilings remain in place across portions of northeast
Georgia, but have begun to lift with diurnal heating and are
expected to become scattered by the early afternoon hours. Showers
have begun to develop near the Georgia and South Carolina coast
with the sea breeze. Showers will increase in coverage and
isolated thunderstorms will develop as the sea breeze pushes
inland towards the southeastern portion of the forecast area.
Coverage this afternoon is thus expected to be highest across
east-central Georgia, with chance PoPs are forecast. Slight chance
PoPs will be warranted elsewhere across north and central Georgia
where diurnally-driven convection could lead to isolated showers
and thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon.

King

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 732 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022/

.Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
No major changes to the short term forecast at this time.

Expecting an increase in low-lvl moisture today as mid-lvl/surface
high situates over the Carolinas. As such, kept PoPs to Slight
Chance to Chance across portions of north & central Georgia for this
afternoon and Tuesday as perturbations within the flow work around
periphery of the high. With CAMS supporting a tongue of 1000+ j/kg
of MU/SBCAPE advecting off the Atlantic, can't rule out a pulse
convective thunderstorm during the afternoon, but anticipating them
to be isolated and short-lived in nature thus keeping T confidence
in check.

Otherwise, max temps for today and tomorrow will again be slightly
above climatological norms with most areas in the mid to upper 80s
with some areas in central Georgia touching the 90s..

Morgan

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Somewhat of a messy synoptic pattern for the first part of the
extended forecast, with high pressure likely for the last half of
the period. Overall, no major changes needed to the extended
forecast for this cycle.

Mid level ridge stretches from the middle Atlantic southwestward to
northern Mexico at the beginning of the period. A mid level tropical
low, associated with a surface wave, is moving westward over the
Bahamas. The eastern edge of the ridge shifts southward over the
Carolinas, keeping the mid level low off the coast of east Florida
through the end of the week. The ridge should begin to break down by
the early part of the weekend with the flow over the CWA going more
zonal in nature into early next week.

The surface pattern is just as messy. By Wednesday, a frontal
boundary stretches from New England back through the Ohio Valley to
the central part of the country. High pressure is centered across
the Carolinas and a weak tropical wave is approaching the Bahamas.
The ridge should break down later on Thursday, with the front
becoming more east-west oriented across the TN valley. The tropical
wave will move west over the Bahamas and approach the Florida east
coast. The front should slowing slip south of the CWA on Friday,
potentially drawing some tropical moisture in from the weak wave
approaching Florida. The front will likely stall somewhere across
southern GA/Florida panhandle by the weekend. High pressure will
build on the back side of the stalled boundary through early next
week.

NListemaa

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
Primarily VFR conditions are in place across north and central
Georgia as the period begins, with a SCT-BKN cu field between
040-060 expected to persist through the afternoon. Scattered TSRA
associated with the sea breeze is moving northwestward towards
MCN, warranting a TEMPO for TSRA between 19-23Z. Isolated
SHRA/TSRA is expected elsewhere, with VCSH being maintained at the
ATL sites and AHN as a result. Some patchy fog will be possible
during the early morning hours after 10Z at AHN/MCN. Winds will be
mainly SE through the period, at 6-9 kts this afternoon,
diminishing to 5 kts or less during the overnight hours.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on all elements.

King

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  65  90  66 /  20  10  10   0
Atlanta         89  67  90  69 /  20   5  20   5
Blairsville     83  62  84  62 /  20   5  20   5
Cartersville    90  66  90  66 /  20  10  10   0
Columbus        92  66  91  67 /  20  10  20   5
Gainesville     87  66  88  67 /  20   5  10   0
Macon           92  65  93  66 /  50  10  20   5
Rome            91  65  92  66 /  10  10  10   0
Peachtree City  90  65  90  66 /  20  10  20   5
Vidalia         91  69  90  68 /  40  10  30   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...King

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1119 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311530-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1119 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening across central Georgia and portions of north Georgia.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing a few lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
and evening for most of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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