Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1111 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022

.UPDATE...

Low cloud ceilings remain in place across portions of northeast
Georgia, but have begun to lift with diurnal heating and are
expected to become scattered by the early afternoon hours. Showers
have begun to develop near the Georgia and South Carolina coast
with the sea breeze. Showers will increase in coverage and
isolated thunderstorms will develop as the sea breeze pushes
inland towards the southeastern portion of the forecast area.
Coverage this afternoon is thus expected to be highest across
east-central Georgia, with chance PoPs are forecast. Slight chance
PoPs will be warranted elsewhere across north and central Georgia
where diurnally-driven convection could lead to isolated showers
and thunderstorms in the mid to late afternoon.

King

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 732 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022/

..Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 342 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022/

SHORT TERM /Today through Tuesday/...
No major changes to the short term forecast at this time.

Expecting an increase in low-lvl moisture today as mid-lvl/surface
high situates over the Carolinas. As such, kept PoPs to Slight
Chance to Chance across portions of north & central Georgia for this
afternoon and Tuesday as perturbations within the flow work around
periphery of the high. With CAMS supporting a tongue of 1000+ j/kg
of MU/SBCAPE advecting off the Atlantic, can't rule out a pulse
convective thunderstorm during the afternoon, but anticipating them
to be isolated and short-lived in nature thus keeping T confidence
in check.

Otherwise, max temps for today and tomorrow will again be slightly
above climatological norms with most areas in the mid to upper 80s
with some areas in central Georgia touching the 90s..

Morgan

LONG TERM /Tuesday Night through Sunday/...
Somewhat of a messy synoptic pattern for the first part of the
extended forecast, with high pressure likely for the last half of
the period. Overall, no major changes needed to the extended
forecast for this cycle.

Mid level ridge stretches from the middle Atlantic southwestward to
northern Mexico at the beginning of the period. A mid level tropical
low, associated with a surface wave, is moving westward over the
Bahamas. The eastern edge of the ridge shifts southward over the
Carolinas, keeping the mid level low off the coast of east Florida
through the end of the week. The ridge should begin to break down by
the early part of the weekend with the flow over the CWA going more
zonal in nature into early next week.

The surface pattern is just as messy. By Wednesday, a frontal
boundary stretches from New England back through the Ohio Valley to
the central part of the country. High pressure is centered across
the Carolinas and a weak tropical wave is approaching the Bahamas.
The ridge should break down later on Thursday, with the front
becoming more east-west oriented across the TN valley. The tropical
wave will move west over the Bahamas and approach the Florida east
coast. The front should slowing slip south of the CWA on Friday,
potentially drawing some tropical moisture in from the weak wave
approaching Florida. The front will likely stall somewhere across
southern GA/Florida panhandle by the weekend. High pressure will
build on the back side of the stalled boundary through early next
week.

NListemaa

AVIATION...
12Z Update...

Anticipating FEW/SCT low to mid lvl deck to move across metro TAF
sites by mid morning and persist through the afternoon and into
the evening. Stray shower or storm will be possible at metro TAF
sites this afternoon, but confidence remains low. Winds will be
SE/ESE through the period, increasing up to 8-11kts by 15-17z.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...

Medium confidence on cigs through 16z and afternoon precip
High confidence on all other elements

Morgan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          90  65  90  66 /  20  10  10   0
Atlanta         89  67  90  69 /  20   5  20   5
Blairsville     83  62  84  62 /  20   5  20   5
Cartersville    90  66  90  66 /  20  10  10   0
Columbus        92  66  91  67 /  20  10  20   5
Gainesville     87  66  88  67 /  20   5  10   0
Macon           92  65  93  66 /  30  10  20   5
Rome            91  65  92  66 /  10  10  10   0
Peachtree City  90  65  90  66 /  20  10  20   5
Vidalia         91  69  90  68 /  40  10  30   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Morgan
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Morgan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1119 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-311530-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1119 AM EDT Mon May 30 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
and evening across central Georgia and portions of north Georgia.
Thunderstorms will be capable of producing a few lightning
strikes, gusty winds, and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
and evening for most of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1259 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

GAZ111>113-301730-
Toombs GA-Wheeler GA-Montgomery GA-
1259 PM EDT Mon May 30 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Toombs,
southeastern Wheeler and southern Montgomery Counties through 130 PM
EDT...

At 1259 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over McNatt Falls, or 7
miles northwest of Plant Hatch, moving northwest at 5 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Uvalda, Alston, English Eddy, Cedar Crossing, Jordan, Charlotteville,
McNatt Falls and Grays Landing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8270 3210 8266 3215 8253 3198 8233
      3194 8236 3194 8238 3196 8238 3195 8239
      3196 8240 3195 8240 3197 8243 3197 8248
      3196 8250 3195 8248 3195 8249 3196 8252
      3196 8255 3193 8261
TIME...MOT...LOC 1659Z 124DEG 6KT 3197 8245

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH