Severe Thunderstorm Warning 35, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

No major changes to thinking in the short term forecast, so have
included very in-depth previous discussion from Thiem.

Mesoanalysis shows very saturated environment under FEW/SCT cloud
deck, allowing for ample insolation with temps climbing into the
80s, with Tds in the 70s. This sets the stage with SBCAPE values
3000+ j/kg, ample instability for any storms that fire, in tandem
with impressive mid- lvl lapse rates and mid-lvl flow. Current
hazards for central Georgia remain large hail, gusty to damaging
winds from downbursts, tornadoes and bouts of heavy rain.

Stratus and Fog remain resilient over N GA, with metro Atlanta
seeing cloud decks as low as 1000ft, with FG/DZ and lowered
visibilities just now lifting, hindering CAPE development. This
has setup a pseudo-front along the I-20 corridor with large temp
disparity. However, looking to this evening, although CAMS have
been all over the place in spatial coverage and timing of frontal
passage. However, severe weather potential for N GA remains on
track with some form of a QLCS to enter NW GA by 23-02z. As
mentioned, see previous discussion for additional info:

Morgan

Previous Short Term Discussion Below...

One Enhanced Risk Severe Weather Outlook down, one more to go!

Despite a strong quasi-linear convective system sweeping through the
forecast area today, with widespread reports of wind damage and over
a dozen noted tornadic debris signatures, the area remains in a
general warm sector regime with abundant low-level warmth and
moisture. In the mid-layers (500-700 hPA), very dry air was left
behind following the storm system, which is helping to keep
scattered light sprinkles/showers from growing more upscale,
however, by noon broad southwesterly flow will increase moisture in
these levels as well and boosting PWATs from near an inch in this
morning's special 06Z sounding to back over an inch and a half by
the afternoon for Central Georgia, setting the stage for another
potential round of severe weather.

Central Georgia, this afternoon into the early evening...

Abundant moisture return by the afternoon in the low- to mid-levels,
is going to be timed with a northward moving coastal, baroclinic
boundary and a very weak mid-level shortwave trough. This setup will
result in a rather abnormal setup for severe weather for this
region, but one that has worrisome combination of severe parameters:

* A weak shortwave will provide lower-level lift across the region,
  which will act as a trigger mechanism for convective development
  and will cool the mid-levels between 500-700 hPa, creating lapse
  rates near 7 C/km.
* With zonal-flow in place in the mid-levels with the rapid invasion
  of the shortwave later in the afternoon, offsetting effects of
  advection warmer mid-level air won't be as present as they
  otherwise would in a more classic Southeastern SVR setup.
* Cooling in the mid-levels, combined with warm and very moist air
  advecting in off the Gulf will create surface-based CAPE values
  between 2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon.
* In general, wind profiles aloft are rather weak (0-6 km shear
  values are below 30 kts) due to the weak nature of the shortwave
  likely resulting in shorter-lived, popcorn-like cells that
  collapse on themselves after approx an hour with very little wind
  shear between 2-6 km.
* However, in the lowest 2 km, wind shear is decent with quarter-
  circle hodographs providing good streamwise vorticity into
  developing right-moving storms and increasing the potential for
  rotating thunderstorms and spin-up circulations.

The result of all this in an environment in Central Georgia this
afternoon with no strong organizing trigger mechanism typical for a
more organized severe thunderstorm development, although mesoscale
boundaries or bands may change this. However, the parameters are
good for shorter-lived (1-2 hours) storms capable of large hail and
rapidly developing short-lived tornadic circulations. This threat
followed by cooler, drier air in the mid-levels allowing evaporative
cooling which combined with water loading will present
downburst/microburst potential as storm updrafts collapse.
Additionally, with 1-3 inches of rain previously fallen, a flooding
threat will be present anywhere heavier rain persists for prolonged
periods of time.

North Georgia, this evening into the overnight hours...

In north Georgia, a strong cold front from a more organized
synoptic system is expected to surge into for northwest Georgia just
before sunset. This will provide a stout triggering mechanism for
storm development, with stronger winds aloft more supportive of
longer-lived supercell development. The dynamics for north Georgia
during this time is everything that's missing for Central Georgia
during the afternoon. However, despite the better dynamics the
thermodynamics are more lacking.

* The moisture return for north Georgia will be less abundant
  resulting in PWATs just above an inch for the area, likely
  resulting in convective storms struggling to become more robust.
* Storms in the south earlier in the day may rob some surface-based
  instability in the region. With that said, forecast values of
  surface-based CAPE are still expected to be above 2000 J/kg, but
  begin falling after 6 PM.
* The timing of the cold front may keep storms elevated after 8 PM,
  limiting severe potential.
* With these factors in mind, low-level wind profiles are much more
  favorable to tornadic supercells if they can overcome the drier
  air aloft. Hodographs show sickle-cell structures through 4-6 km,
  with decent, but not perfect, storm-relative streamwise vorticity.
* Dry air in the mid levels, could cause strong evaporative
  cooling fueled downbursts in any robust storms that do form.
  These winds combined with the storm motion could create several
  instances of damaging wind gusts.

All in all, please stay aware of any watches or warnings issued for
your area through the day and into tonight. Please have a plan of
action ready in case it is needed.

Following the cold front tonight, more tranquil weather is in store
with clearing skies, breezy NW winds, and highs generally in the 60s
by Thursday.

Thiem

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Anomalous temperatures still on track for the weekend. Temps should
begin to slowly moderate towards normal on Sunday. Friday and
Saturday night's lows should be 5 to 15 degrees below normal.
Saturday's highs will range from 15 to 25 degrees below normal for
this time of year.

Frost/Freeze products will likely be needed Friday night and
Saturday night.

Previous Long Term Discussion Below...

The impressive, expansive upper trough that fueled our final round
of active weather continues to dig further down across the
southeast, with a tight pressure gradient on its outer edge (~20-22
mb difference across GA). As such, gusty gradient winds will be
possible through Saturday afternoon when the trough begins to lift
across the mid-Atlantic states. Several shortwave disturbances
rounding the inner edge of the trough will lead to increased cloud
cover and brief bursts of rain across north GA on Friday into
Saturday. A surface high from over the Gulf and stout upper ridging
break the active pattern as they settle in across the southeast on
Sunday to round off the weekend and take us through the beginning of
the work week.

Temperatures will be quite cool for April standards following the
cold frontal passage on Thursday night. Have added the potential for
areas of frost on Sunday morning, when minimum temperatures are
coolest and winds begin to calm. Highs will stall out in the mid-50s
to 60s, 12-15 degrees below average; lows through the weekend will
be in the 30s, about 5-10 degrees below average. As the surface high
begins to drift across the southeast Sunday, winds shift to be
primarily from the southeast, and temperatures recover to seasonable
highs in the 70s-80s and lows in the 40s.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

Metro TAF sites socked in stubborn LIFR/IFR cigs, expecting
gradual improvement through the afternoon as daytime mixing
occurs. Have SHRA starting at 18z as precip overspreads the area
along a shortwave, with low-end potential of TS, but confidence is
too low at this time to include. TSRA will be possible again tonight
after 00z as a cold front pushes through metro TAF sites. After
frontal passage, winds turn NW by 08z tonight, remaining elevated
between 9-13kts. Should go VFR cigs/vsbys tomorrow between 11-14z
as drier air rushes in.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...

Low to medium on all elements

Morgan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          55  68  43  61 /  70   0   0   5
Atlanta         52  66  43  58 /  90   0   0   5
Blairsville     45  62  36  52 / 100   5   5  40
Cartersville    47  66  41  57 /  90   0   0  10
Columbus        55  69  44  64 /  70   5   0   0
Gainesville     52  65  43  57 /  90   0   0  10
Macon           57  72  43  67 /  70   5   0   0
Rome            49  66  41  57 /  90   0   0  10
Peachtree City  50  67  41  60 /  80   0   0   5
Vidalia         63  72  48  68 /  90  30   5   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through Thursday morning for the following zones:
Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...Crisp...
Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Harris...
Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...
Laurens...Macon...Marion...Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...
Muscogee...Oglethorpe...Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...
Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...
Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...Upson...Warren...Washington...
Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

Tornado Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Chattahoochee...
Clayton...Coweta...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...
Fayette...Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Harris...Heard...Henry...
Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...
Laurens...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...
Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...Peach...Pike...Pulaski...Putnam...
Schley...Spalding...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...
Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...
Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...
Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem/Morgan
LONG TERM....96/Listemaa
AVIATION...Morgan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
501 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-070915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
501 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the
area this afternoon and overnight. Some storms may become strong
to severe and capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large
hail. A tornado or two are possible. Localized flooding and flash
flooding is possible, especially in areas that received heavy
rainfall on Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation, especially this
afternoon across central Georgia. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
231 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

GAZ080-081-093>095-061900-
Macon GA-Peach GA-Taylor GA-Houston GA-Crawford GA-
231 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of north central Macon,
Peach, northeastern Houston, central Crawford and northeastern Taylor
Counties through 300 PM EDT...

At 231 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Reynolds, or 9 miles
south of Roberta, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Fort Valley, Warner Robins, Centerville, Byron, Reynolds, Robins Air
Force Base, Nakomis, Jack Brown Estates, Lakewood, Powerville,
Elberta, Lee Pope, Horns and Miami Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for central and
west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3265 8414 3278 8385 3274 8383 3273 8380
      3272 8376 3269 8374 3269 8370 3268 8367
      3267 8363 3266 8362 3266 8356 3262 8354
      3247 8405
TIME...MOT...LOC 1831Z 246DEG 27KT 3259 8405

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
247 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

GAZ042-052-053-061915-
Coweta GA-Carroll GA-Heard GA-
247 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Carroll,
northwestern Heard and northwestern Coweta Counties through 315 PM
EDT...

At 246 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Tyus, or 11 miles
southwest of Carrollton, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Temple, Bowdon, Mount Zion, Whitesburg, Ephesus,
Centralhatchee, Roopville, Plant Yates, Byers Crossroads, Tyus,
Roosterville, Seaton Lake, Clem, Abilene, John Tanner State Park,
Lowell, Plant Wansley and Blackjack Mountain.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for west central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3373 8500 3360 8490 3358 8491 3357 8489
      3345 8480 3333 8526 3337 8528 3352 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 1846Z 245DEG 39KT 3346 8522

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
251 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

GAZ092-103-104-106-061915-
Schley GA-Crisp GA-Sumter GA-Webster GA-
251 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Webster, southeastern Schley, Sumter and northwestern Crisp Counties
through 315 PM EDT...

At 251 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Scrutchins, or 10 miles
south of Americus, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Americus, Ellaville, Plains, Leslie, Andersonville, De Soto, Desoto,
Cobb, Sumter, Lamar, Georgia Veterans Memorial St Pk, Croxton
Crossroads, New Era, La Crosse, Huntington, Pennington, Maddox,
Methvins, Bumphead and Centerpoint.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for central and
west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3197 8444 3193 8444 3192 8453 3198 8460
      3230 8422 3223 8422 3223 8414 3219 8413
      3219 8409 3217 8403 3215 8403 3213 8401
      3205 8398 3203 8396 3203 8385 3191 8392
      3192 8434 3187 8434
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 256DEG 30KT 3192 8418

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

GAZ072-081>084-094-095-061945-
Peach GA-Wilkinson GA-Bibb GA-Houston GA-Crawford GA-Jones GA-
Twiggs GA-
301 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central
Wilkinson, southeastern Bibb, Twiggs, northeastern Peach,
northeastern Houston, east central Crawford and south central Jones
Counties through 345 PM EDT...

At 301 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Centerville, or 11
miles northeast of Fort Valley, moving east at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, nickel sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Macon, Jeffersonville, Warner Robins, Centerville, Byron, Robins Air
Force Base, Marion, Griswoldville, District Path, Powerville,
Skipperton, Miami Valley, Jack Brown Estates, Bullard, Rutland,
Fitzpatrick, Ripley, Lakewood, Huber and Dry Branch.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for central
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3253 8382 3267 8387 3290 8347 3275 8325
      3256 8335
TIME...MOT...LOC 1901Z 250DEG 29KT 3263 8371

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.88 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
306 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

GAZ080-092-093-095-104>106-061930-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Crisp GA-Dooly GA-Taylor GA-Sumter GA-Houston GA-
306 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Macon, western
Dooly, southwestern Houston, eastern Schley, central Sumter, south
central Taylor and northwestern Crisp Counties through 330 PM EDT...

At 306 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Pennington, or 7 miles
south of Oglethorpe, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Americus, Ellaville, Oglethorpe, Unadilla, Montezuma, Marshallville,
Byromville, Ideal, Pinehurst, Andersonville, Lilly, Dooling, Cobb,
Lamar, Murrays Crossroads, Whitewater State Park, New Era, Rupert, La
Crosse and Pennington.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for central and
west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3213 8437 3252 8427 3249 8397 3229 8372
      3198 8388 3194 8398
TIME...MOT...LOC 1906Z 209DEG 25KT 3218 8406

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
313 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

GAZ042>044-062000-
Douglas GA-Carroll GA-South Fulton GA-
313 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southern Carroll,
southern Douglas and southwestern Fulton Counties through 400 PM
EDT...

At 313 PM EDT, an area of strong thunderstorms was centered near
Carrollton, moving east at 30 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Locations impacted include...
Douglasville, Carrollton, Fairburn, Palmetto, Whitesburg, Roopville,
Chattahoochee Hills, Sweetwater Creek State Park, Byers Crossroads,
Hannah, Tyus, Bill Arp, Chapel Hill, Seaton Lake, Fairplay, Clem,
Lowell, Treasure Lake and Campbellton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for north central
and west central Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3377 8461 3350 8461 3351 8462 3351 8485
      3350 8486 3348 8490 3344 8494 3346 8498
      3344 8498 3343 8502 3343 8523 3351 8527
TIME...MOT...LOC 1913Z 254DEG 28KT 3352 8501

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH