River Flood Warning 81, NWS Atlanta, GA

870 
WGUS42 KFFC 061534
FLWFFC

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1134 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...Observed flooding changed to Minor severity for the following 
rivers in Georgia...

  Little River near Washington affecting Wilkes and Taliaferro 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&


GAC265-317-070345-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTNG1.N.ER.220406T0906Z.220406T1500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1134 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Little River near Washington.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 21 feet, Minor flooding continues in the woodlands 
  and fields along the river upstream and downstream from the gage 
  at Lundberg Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM EDT Wednesday the stage was 20.9 feet and rising
    slowly.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 19 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3363 8283 3368 8280 3364 8270 3367 8260
      3361 8258 3358 8272


$$

089 
WGUS82 KFFC 070149
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
949 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Little River near Washington affecting Wilkes and Taliaferro 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&


GAC265-317-071400-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTNG1.N.ER.220406T0906Z.220407T0100Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
949 PM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Little River near Washington.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 21 feet, Minor flooding continues in the woodlands 
  and fields along the river upstream and downstream from the gage 
  at Lundberg Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 9:00 PM EDT Wednesday the stage was 21.2 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 9:00 PM EDT Wednesday was 21.2 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 19 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3363 8283 3368 8280 3364 8270 3367 8260
      3361 8258 3358 8272


$$

120 
WGUS82 KFFC 070741
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
341 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...The Flood Warning is extended for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Oconee River near Dublin affecting Wilkinson, Laurens, Washington 
  and Johnson Counties.

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Towaliga River near Juliette affecting Monroe County.

  Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road near Byron 
  affecting Houston, Bibb, Crawford and Peach Counties.

  Little River near Washington affecting Wilkes and Taliaferro 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Be especially cautious at night when it is harder to recognize the 
dangers of flooding.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&


GAC167-175-303-319-071945-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0083.220409T1236Z-000000T0000Z/
/DBNG1.1.ER.220409T1236Z.220411T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
341 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING NOW IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER 
NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is forecast.

* WHERE...Oconee River near Dublin.

* WHEN...From Saturday morning until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 23.5 feet, Minor flooding spreads further into the 
  woodland areas. The water level begins to flood Rex Miller Road...
  downstream left bank of the Highway 80 bridge. Also Old River 
  Lane...upstream and left bank from the bridge begins to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:45 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 11.3 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to rise above flood stage
    Saturday morning and continue rising to a crest of 23.6 feet
    Sunday evening.
  - Flood stage is 21 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3265 8298 3267 8289 3257 8284 3238 8268
      3236 8277 3254 8293


$$

GAC207-071945-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0086.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/TOWG1.N.ER.220407T0245Z.220407T0545Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
341 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Towaliga River near Juliette.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 18 feet, Minor flooding expands into woodlands and 
  fields upstream and downstream from the gage on Monticello Highway 
  or Georgia Highway 83.  Portions of Byars Road and numerous 
  private access roads near the river will flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 1:45 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 17.2 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 16 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3316 8396 3316 8382 3310 8382 3310 8396


$$

GAC021-079-153-225-071945-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BYNG1.N.ER.220407T0324Z.220407T0615Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
341 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road 
  near Byron.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 15 feet, Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding of 
  woodlands occurs upstream and downstream from the gage on Houston 
  Road. Portions of creek access roads and low lying areas will 
  begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:15 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 15.5 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 15 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3280 8391 3284 8386 3274 8374 3269 8358
      3263 8355 3269 8379


$$

GAC265-317-071945-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTNG1.N.ER.220406T0906Z.220407T0615Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
341 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Little River near Washington.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 23 feet, Minor flooding expands further into the 
  woodlands and fields along the river upstream and downstream from 
  the gage at Lundberg Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 2:15 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 22.2 feet and slowly
    rising.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 19 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3363 8283 3368 8280 3364 8270 3367 8260
      3361 8258 3358 8272


$$

746 
WGUS42 KFFC 071224
FLWFFC

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
824 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...Observed flooding changed from Minor to Moderate severity for the 
following rivers in Georgia...

  Little River near Washington affecting Wilkes and Taliaferro 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&


GAC265-317-080030-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTNG1.N.ER.220406T0906Z.220407T1200Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
824 AM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Little River near Washington.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 25 feet, Moderate flooding occurs in the woodlands 
  and fields along the river upstream and downstream from the gage 
  at Lundberg Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 8:00 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 24.6 feet and rising.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 19 feet.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3363 8283 3368 8280 3364 8270 3367 8260
      3361 8258 3358 8272


$$

113 
WGUS82 KFFC 071600
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1200 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Little River near Washington affecting Wilkes and Taliaferro 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&


GAC265-317-080400-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTNG1.N.ER.220406T0906Z.220407T1500Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1200 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Little River near Washington.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 25 feet, Moderate flooding occurs in the woodlands 
  and fields along the river upstream and downstream from the gage 
  at Lundberg Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:00 AM EDT Thursday the stage was 26 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 11:00 AM EDT Thursday was 26 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 19 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    26.4 feet on 02/07/2020.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3363 8283 3368 8280 3364 8270 3367 8260
      3361 8258 3358 8272


$$

191 
WGUS82 KFFC 080004
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
804 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Little River near Washington affecting Wilkes and Taliaferro 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Motorists should not attempt to drive around barricades or drive 
cars through flooded areas.

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&


GAC265-317-081215-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTNG1.N.ER.220406T0906Z.220407T2145Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
804 PM EDT Thu Apr 7 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring. This approaches the flood 
  of record.

* WHERE...Little River near Washington.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 27 feet, Significant flooding continues in the 
  woodlands and fields along the river upstream and downstream from 
  the gage at Lundberg Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 7:00 PM EDT Thursday the stage was 27.5 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 7:00 PM EDT Thursday was 27.5 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 19 feet.
  - Flood History...This crest compares to a previous crest of
    27.6 feet on 12/27/1964.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3363 8283 3368 8280 3364 8270 3367 8260
      3361 8258 3358 8272


$$

322 
WGUS82 KFFC 081009
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
609 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road near Byron 
  affecting Houston, Bibb, Crawford and Peach Counties.

  Oconee River near Oconee affecting Wilkinson and Washington 
  Counties.

  Little River near Washington affecting Wilkes and Taliaferro 
  Counties.

For the Ocmulgee River Basin...including Jackson, Griffin, Juliette, 
East Juliette, Dames Ferry, West Macon, Macon, Clinchfield, Ocmulgee 
River at US 341 at Hawkinsville, Hawkinsville, Echeconnee Creek at 
Houston Road near Byron, Abbeville, McRae, Scotland, Lumber City...
Moderate flooding is forecast.
For the Oconee River Basin...including Penfield, Milledgeville, 
Oconee, Oconee, McIntyre, Big Sandy Creek at US 441 near Irwinton, 
Oconee, Dublin, Mount Vernon...Moderate flooding is forecast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

Additional information is available at weather.gov/atlanta.

&&


GAC021-079-153-225-082215-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0085.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/BYNG1.N.ER.220407T0324Z.220408T0345Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
609 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Echeconnee Creek near Echeconnee Creek at Houston Road 
  near Byron.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 17 feet, Minor flooding expands into the woodland 
  areas upstream and downstream from the gage on Houston Road. 
  Larger portions of creek access roads will flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:45 AM EDT Friday the stage was 17.3 feet and falling.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:45 AM EDT Friday was 17.8 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 15 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3280 8391 3284 8386 3274 8374 3269 8358
      3263 8355 3269 8379


$$

GAC303-319-082215-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0084.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/OCOG1.N.ER.220406T1727Z.220408T0930Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
609 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Oconee River near Oconee.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 20 feet, Moderate flooding begins. Significant 
  flooding occurs in the woodlands and wetlands along the river 
  upstream and downstream from a gage located by a dirt boat ramp on 
  the west side of Avant Mine off Adams Road in Washington County. 
  The water will be around two feet deep around an elevated USGS 
  gage house. The dirt road by the boat ramp will begin to flood.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:45 AM EDT Friday the stage was 19.7 feet and steady.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 18 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3297 8316 3302 8313 3296 8304 3288 8298
      3284 8303 3292 8311


$$

GAC265-317-082215-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTNG1.N.ER.220406T0906Z.220407T2145Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
609 AM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Moderate flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Little River near Washington.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 25 feet, Moderate flooding occurs in the woodlands 
  and fields along the river upstream and downstream from the gage 
  at Lundberg Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 5:00 AM EDT Friday the stage was 25.6 feet and falling.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 5:00 AM EDT Friday was 27.5 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 19 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3363 8283 3368 8280 3364 8270 3367 8260
      3361 8258 3358 8272


$$

462 
WGUS82 KFFC 081625
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1225 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Little River near Washington affecting Wilkes and Taliaferro 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&


GAC265-317-090430-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTNG1.N.ER.220406T0906Z.220407T2145Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1225 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Little River near Washington.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 23 feet, Minor flooding occurs in the woodlands and 
  fields along the river upstream and downstream from the gage at 
  Lundberg Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 12:00 PM EDT Friday the stage was 23.9 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 19 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3363 8283 3368 8280 3364 8270 3367 8260
      3361 8258 3358 8272


$$

691 
WGUS82 KFFC 090237
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1037 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Little River near Washington affecting Wilkes and Taliaferro 
  Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood 
deaths occur in vehicles.

&&


GAC265-317-091445-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/WTNG1.N.ER.220406T0906Z.220407T2145Z.000000T0000Z.NR/
1037 PM EDT Fri Apr 8 2022

...FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...

* WHAT...Minor flooding is occurring.

* WHERE...Little River near Washington.

* WHEN...Until further notice.

* IMPACTS...At 21 feet, Minor flooding continues in the woodlands 
  and fields along the river upstream and downstream from the gage 
  at Lundberg Road.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 10:00 PM EDT Friday the stage was 20.8 feet.
  - Recent Activity...The maximum river stage in the 24 hours
    ending at 10:00 PM EDT Friday was 27 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - Flood stage is 19 feet.


&&

LAT...LON 3363 8283 3368 8280 3364 8270 3367 8260
      3361 8258 3358 8272


$$

343 
WGUS82 KFFC 090843
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
443 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Little River near Washington affecting Wilkes and Taliaferro 
  Counties.

GAC265-317-090945-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0081.000000T0000Z-220409T0843Z/
/WTNG1.N.ER.220406T0906Z.220407T2145Z.220409T0711Z.NR/
443 AM EDT Sat Apr 9 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Little River near Washington.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 4:00 AM EDT Saturday the stage was 18.7 feet.
  - Forecast...No forecast is available for this location.
  - http://www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3363 8283 3368 8280 3364 8270 3367 8260
      3361 8258 3358 8272


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
504 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...

One Enhanced Risk Severe Weather Outlook down, one more to go!

Despite a strong quasi-linear convective system sweeping through the
forecast area today, with widespread reports of wind damage and over
a dozen noted tornadic debris signatures, the area remains in a
general warm sector regime with abundant low-level warmth and
moisture. In the mid-layers (500-700 hPA), very dry air was left
behind following the storm system, which is helping to keep
scattered light sprinkles/showers from growing more upscale,
however, by noon broad southwesterly flow will increase moisture in
these levels as well and boosting PWATs from near an inch in this
morning's special 06Z sounding to back over an inch and a half by
the afternoon for Central Georgia, setting the stage for another
potential round of severe weather.

Central Georgia, this afternoon into the early evening...

Abundant moisture return by the afternoon in the low- to mid-levels,
is going to be timed with a northward moving coastal, baroclinic
boundary and a very weak mid-level shortwave trough. This setup will
result in a rather abnormal setup for severe weather for this
region, but one that has worrisome combination of severe parameters:

* A weak shortwave will provide lower-level lift across the region,
  which will act as a trigger mechanism for convective development
  and will cool the mid-levels between 500-700 hPa, creating lapse
  rates near 7 C/km.
* With zonal-flow in place in the mid-levels with the rapid invasion
  of the shortwave later in the afternoon, offsetting effects of
  advection warmer mid-level air won't be as present as they
  otherwise would in a more classic Southeastern SVR setup.
* Cooling in the mid-levels, combined with warm and very moist air
  advecting in off the Gulf will create surface-based CAPE values
  between 2000-3000 J/kg this afternoon.
* In general, wind profiles aloft are rather weak (0-6 km shear
  values are below 30 kts) due to the weak nature of the shortwave
  likely resulting in shorter-lived, popcorn-like cells that
  collapse on themselves after approx an hour with very little wind
  shear between 2-6 km.
* However, in the lowest 2 km, wind shear is decent with quarter-
  circle hodographs providing good streamwise vorticity into
  developing right-moving storms and increasing the potential for
  rotating thunderstorms and spin-up circulations.

The result of all this in an environment in Central Georgia this
afternoon with no strong organizing trigger mechanism typical for a
more organized severe thunderstorm development, although mesoscale
boundaries or bands may change this. However, the parameters are
good for shorter-lived (1-2 hours) storms capable of large hail and
rapidly developing short-lived tornadic circulations. This threat
followed by cooler, drier air in the mid-levels allowing evaporative
cooling which combined with water loading will present
downburst/microburst potential as storm updrafts collapse.
Additionally, with 1-3 inches of rain previously fallen, a flooding
threat will be present anywhere heavier rain persists for prolonged
periods of time.

North Georgia, this evening into the overnight hours...

In north Georgia, a strong cold front from a more organized
synoptic system is expected to surge into for northwest Georgia just
before sunset. This will provide a stout triggering mechanism for
storm development, with stronger winds aloft more supportive of
longer-lived supercell development. The dynamics for north Georgia
during this time is everything that's missing for Central Georgia
during the afternoon. However, despite the better dynamics the
thermodynamics are more lacking.

* The moisture return for north Georgia will be less abundant
  resulting in PWATs just above an inch for the area, likely
  resulting in convective storms struggling to become more robust.
* Storms in the south earlier in the day may rob some surface-based
  instability in the region. With that said, forecast values of
  surface-based CAPE are still expected to be above 2000 J/kg, but
  begin falling after 6 PM.
* The timing of the cold front may keep storms elevated after 8 PM,
  limiting severe potential.
* With these factors in mind, low-level wind profiles are much more
  favorable to tornadic supercells if they can overcome the drier
  air aloft. Hodographs show sickle-cell structures through 4-6 km,
  with decent, but not perfect, storm-relative streamwise vorticity.
* Dry air in the mid levels, could cause strong evaporative
  cooling fueled downbursts in any robust storms that do form.
  These winds combined with the storm motion could create several
  instances of damaging wind gusts.

All in all, please stay aware of any watches or warnings issued for
your area through the day and into tonight. Please have a plan of
action ready in case it is needed.

Following the cold front tonight, more tranquil weather is in store
with clearing skies, breezy NW winds, and highs generally in the 60s
by Thursday.

Thiem

.LONG TERM /Thursday Night through Tuesday/...

The impressive, expansive upper trough that fueled our final round
of active weather continues to dig further down across the
southeast, with a tight pressure gradient on its outer edge (~20-22
mb difference across GA). As such, gusty gradient winds will be
possible through Saturday afternoon when the trough begins to lift
across the mid-Atlantic states. Several shortwave disturbances
rounding the inner edge of the trough will lead to increased cloud
cover and brief bursts of rain across north GA on Friday into
Saturday. A surface high from over the Gulf and stout upper ridging
break the active pattern as they settle in across the southeast on
Sunday to round off the weekend and take us through the beginning of
the work week.

Temperatures will be quite cool for April standards following the
cold frontal passage on Thursday night. Have added the potential for
areas of frost on Sunday morning, when minimum temperatures are
coolest and winds begin to calm. Highs will stall out in the mid-50s
to 60s, 12-15 degrees below average; lows through the weekend will
be in the 30s, about 5-10 degrees below average. As the surface high
begins to drift across the southeast Sunday, winds shift to be
primarily from the southeast, and temperatures recover to seasonable
highs in the 70s-80s and lows in the 40s.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z Update...
Abundant low-level moisture will produce widespread lowered CIGs
and VSBYs through the TAF period with periods of SHRA/TSRA. IFR
CIGS have moved in with several hours of LIFR CIGs and VSBYs
possible, especially for ATL/AHN sites from approx 09Z-15Z after
which VSBYs to improve outside heavy precip and ATL/AHN sites
going to MVFR after 18Z, and MCN/CSG to go to VFR after 18Z
outside heavy precip. Widespread SHRA is expected over the next
24 hours but primary concentration of SHRA/TSRA will be from
18Z-02Z for CSG/MCN and 02Z-06Z at ATL/AHN sites with a frontal
system. Southeast winds between 5-12kts through 06Z, with winds
shifting out of northwest thereafter.

//ATL Confidence...06Z Update...
Medium on all elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          77  54  68  43 /  70  70  10   0
Atlanta         77  52  66  43 /  70  80  10   0
Blairsville     75  44  62  37 /  60  80   5   5
Cartersville    79  47  66  40 /  60  80   5   0
Columbus        81  54  70  44 /  80  60  10   0
Gainesville     76  52  65  43 /  60  80   5   0
Macon           81  56  73  43 /  80  80  20   0
Rome            80  49  67  40 /  70  80   0   0
Peachtree City  77  50  68  42 /  80  80  10   0
Vidalia         82  62  72  48 /  80  80  30   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 8 AM EDT this morning through Thursday morning
for the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...
Chattahoochee...Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...
Glascock...Greene...Hancock...Harris...Houston...Jasper...
Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion...
Monroe...Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Oglethorpe...Peach...
Pulaski...Putnam...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...
Upson...Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...
Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
501 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-070915-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
501 AM EDT Wed Apr 6 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms will move across the
area this afternoon and overnight. Some storms may become strong
to severe and capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large
hail. A tornado or two are possible. Localized flooding and flash
flooding is possible, especially in areas that received heavy
rainfall on Tuesday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation, especially this
afternoon across central Georgia. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.