Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Atlanta, GA

698 
WWUS52 KFFC 052131
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
531 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAC209-279-052141-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-220405T2215Z/
Toombs GA-Montgomery GA-
531 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN TOOMBS AND
SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for central
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3181 8307 3202 8260 3198 8255 3196 8255
      3192 8263 3192 8268 3186 8276 3186 8278
      3185 8279 3184 8278 3181 8282 3182 8284
      3178 8287 3179 8290 3178 8291 3179 8297
      3178 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 260DEG 75KT 3192 8260 

$$

GAC271-309-052215-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-220405T2215Z/
Telfair GA-Wheeler GA-
531 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN TELFAIR AND SOUTHEASTERN WHEELER COUNTIES...

At 531 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Hazlehurst,
moving east at 85 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lumber City, Jacksonville and Horse Creek Wma. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for central
Georgia.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3181 8307 3202 8260 3198 8255 3196 8255
      3192 8263 3192 8268 3186 8276 3186 8278
      3185 8279 3184 8278 3181 8282 3182 8284
      3178 8287 3179 8290 3178 8291 3179 8297
      3178 8301
TIME...MOT...LOC 2131Z 260DEG 75KT 3192 8260 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

642 
WWUS52 KFFC 052145
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
545 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAC271-052155-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-220405T2215Z/
Telfair GA-
545 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN TELFAIR COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for central
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3194 8267 3197 8270 3202 8260 3198 8255
      3196 8255 3196 8257 3195 8258 3194 8260
      3192 8263 3192 8264 3193 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 260DEG 75KT 3197 8225 

$$

GAC309-052215-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-220405T2215Z/
Wheeler GA-
545 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHEELER COUNTY...

At 545 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Altamaha, or
near Plant Hatch, moving east at 85 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
southeastern Wheeler County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for central
Georgia.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3194 8267 3197 8270 3202 8260 3198 8255
      3196 8255 3196 8257 3195 8258 3194 8260
      3192 8263 3192 8264 3193 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 260DEG 75KT 3197 8225 

HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

679 
WWUS52 KFFC 052149 RRA
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
549 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAC309-052159-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-220405T2215Z/
Wheeler GA-
549 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WHEELER COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for central
Georgia.

LAT...LON 3194 8267 3197 8270 3202 8260 3198 8255
      3196 8255 3196 8257 3195 8258 3194 8260
      3192 8263 3192 8264 3193 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 2148Z 260DEG 75KT 3199 8215 

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
511 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

.UPDATE...

Trimmed the western edge of the TOR Watch.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 411 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022/

UPDATE...

Updated to trim some of the western end of the TOR Watch.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022/

.Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

No major changes to the short term forecast through Wednesday.
Mesoanalysis shows warm front draped across portions of north-
central GA, along a line from Troup to Bibb to Warren. Most storms
north of this boundary remain elevated and are unlikely to
produce damage winds with a decreased Tor threat, however heavy
rainfall and lightning will remain an issue through the afternoon.
Primary concern remains south of the front in central Georgia
with temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s with Tds hovering in the
60s, with SBCAPE values ~500-1500 j/kg. See previous discussion
for more:

Previous Short Term Discussion....

Tuesday...

An Enhanced Risk Severe Weather Outlook has been forecast for most
of Central Georgia today with a threat for widespread damaging wind
gusts and several tornadoes possible, one or two of which may be
strong or long track. The primary threat will be this afternoon and
early evening, south of the I-20 corridor, with the highest severe
potential being along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon to
Augusta.

A strengthening low-level shortwave is currently digging across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and will continue moving eastward
throughout the day (best illustrated at 700 hPa). This shortwave
trough, with an associated low-level jet with winds over 60 kts
between 1-3 km aloft, will provide ample low-level lift throughout
the region with a weak low-pressure system being pulled across the
northern Gulf states through the day on Wednesday that will pull a
warm, moist Gulf airmass onto the forecast area throughout the
morning. Within this airmass...

* PWAT values are expected to surge well over 1.5" as dewpoints rise
  to the low 60s.
* Surface-based CAPE values over 1000 J/kg, possibly as high as 2000
  J/kg as afternoon highs reach the upper 60s and 70s.
* Abundant low-level shear due to the aforementioned jet manifests
  as 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values between 150-400 m2/s2.
* Quarter-circled shaped hodographs from 0-1.5 km and semi-circled
  hodographs from 0-6 km, storm relative inflow having
  nearly 100 percent streamwise vorticity vs crosswise vorticity.

These ingredients combined are expected to create numerous severe
thunderstorms this afternoon, taking the form of a quasi-linear
convective system (QLCS) projected to kick through this afternoon
with several discrete, strong to potentially severe cells ahead of
the main line in the late morning and early afternoon. The primary
threats being severe, damaging wind gusts contained in storm
downdrafts due to 50+ kt winds at 850 hPa (1 km AGL) being
transfered to the ground and tornadoes, with high-resolution models
resolving several embedded rotating supercells within a quasi-linear
convective line. Other threats include sparse large hail and
isolated flash flooding though the messy, fast-moving storm mode
will limit these other threats. The shear speed of this system being
pushed by the forcing of the shortwave through is perhaps the only
thing preventing a larger severe weather outbreak from being
forecast.

Wednesday...

The cold pool following this line of storms won't be all that 'cool'
with generally moist adiabatic, thermodynamic profiles.
Additionally, the weak surface low-pressure will be short-lived and
won't have the ability to pull colder air behind it in the form of a
true cold front with a larger, more robust low-pressure system to
the north in the western Great Lakes region keeping the area in
broad southerly flow. The result means warm, moist air will linger
throughout the forecast area.

In Central Georgia, a coastal boundary is expected to move into the
region with a much weaker shortwave moving over the southern Gulf
states aloft. Models are predicting an unorganized cluster of storms
to develop. With PWATs increasing to near 2 inches, but shear values
being diminished in the area with a lack of stronger synoptic
forcing will limit severe potential. A Slight Risk Severe Weather
Outlook is forecast for the area as a result. The primary threat for
Central Georgia by Wednesday could be flash flooding with the
cluster of storms pushing 48-hour rainfall totals to 2.5-4 inches of
rain. Current antecedent conditions combine with the sandy Coastal
Plains soils types suggest the area may be able to handle a second
dose of heavy precip, but will need to be reevaluated after the
first round of storms moves through. Furthermore, several questions
remain about the recovery of the atmosphere after this initial wave
of storms. Strong damaging winds may also be a concern in water-
loaded downdrafts, with outside threats for large hail and very
brief spin-up tornadoes.

In North Georgia, a true cold front will push southwards into the
Northwestern corner of Georgia by dusk, with decent moisture and
instability recovery expected after the initial wave of storms on
Tuesday. A low-end Enhanced Risk Severe Weather Outlook has been
issued for the area of far north and northwest Georgia, however,
several unresolved questions still exist with this potential sever
weather setup. With relatively drier air aloft, models are
struggling to produce robust storms in the region along the frontal
zone and there is some question if convective storms further south
could rob northern Georgia of significant instability. Furthermore,
the timing of the system in the late evening could prevent storms
from being surface-based, which could prevent storms from harnessing
better ow-level wind profiles into tornadic circulations. With these
questions in mind, the primary threats will still be damaging wind
gusts with a tornado or two possible.

Thiem/Morgan

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

No major changes needed to the extended portion of the forecast
today. Anomalously cold temperatures still expected Thursday Night
through Sunday Morning. There will definitely be a potential for
frost/freeze conditions, especially across north Ga during this
period.

Previous Extended Discussion....

By Thursday morning, some lingering stratiform precip. on the
periphery of Wednesday's system will be exiting the CWA to the east.
The impressive, expansive upper trough that fueled our final round
of active weather continues to dig further down across the
southeast, with a tight pressure gradient on its outer edge (~20-22
mb difference across GA). As such, gusty gradient winds will be
possible through Saturday afternoon when the trough begins to lift
across the mid-Atlantic states. Several shortwave disturbances
rounding the inner edge of the trough will lead to increased cloud
cover and brief bursts of rain across north GA on Friday into
Saturday. A surface high from over the Gulf and stout upper ridging
break the active pattern as they settle in across the southeast on
Sunday to round off the weekend and take us through the beginning of
the work week.

Temperatures will be quite cool for April standards following the
cold frontal passage on Thursday night. Highs will stall out in the
mid-50s to 60s, 12-15 degrees below average; lows through the
weekend will be in the 30s, about 5-10 degrees below average. As the
surface high begins to drift across the southeast Sunday, winds
shift to be primarily from the southeast, and temperatures recover
to seasonable highs in the 70s-80s and lows in the 40s.

Hochstatter/NListemaa

AVIATION...
18Z Update...

IFR/LIFR cigs and visbys at metro TAF sites. Expecting trend to
continue through the afternoon as convection moves across the
area, exiting around 20z. Winds go SW around 20z between 8-12kts,
with some gusts up to 22-25kts possible within heavier rain
bands. MVFR cigs through the evening with lighter SW winds,
dropping into IFR once more overnight through the morning. Have
recovery to MVFR by tomorrow afternoon but low confidence.
Introduced PROB30 for incoming afternoon convection tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium on lasting MVFR and MVFR vs IFR tomorrow morning
Medium on exit timing of SHRA/TSRA and PROB30 timing for tomorrow
afternoon
Medium to high on visbys
High on all other elements

Morgan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  80  54  68 /  30  50  60   0
Atlanta         62  79  52  66 /  20  50  70   0
Blairsville     54  78  46  62 /  40  50  80   5
Cartersville    59  82  48  66 /  20  50  70   0
Columbus        63  81  54  70 /  30  70  70   0
Gainesville     61  79  53  65 /  30  50  70   0
Macon           62  83  56  73 /  50  70  60   5
Rome            59  82  49  67 /  30  60  70   0
Peachtree City  61  80  51  68 /  20  60  70   0
Vidalia         65  82  62  75 /  90  70  50  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Dodge...Emanuel...Glascock...Jefferson...Johnson...
Laurens...Montgomery...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Warren...
Washington...Wheeler.

Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for
the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...
Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...
Hancock...Harris...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...
Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Monroe...Montgomery...
Morgan...Muscogee...Oglethorpe...Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...
Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...
Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...Upson...Warren...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Morgan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1217 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-061030-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1217 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue across north
and central Georgia through the evening hours. Thunderstorms will
be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall. The primary severe hazard would be
damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. A tornado or two is also
possible. Repeated rounds of storms will increase the risk for
flooding and flash flooding of creeks and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

A line of showers and scattered thunderstorms will move through
the area on Wednesday afternoon. Some storms may become strong to
severe and capable of producing damaging wind gusts and isolated
large hail. A brief tornado or two are possible. Localized
flooding and flash flooding is possible, especially in areas that
received heavy rainfall on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation, especially this
afternoon across central Georgia. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
432 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0311 PM     TORNADO          1 S ROBERTA             32.71N  84.01W
04/05/2022                   CRAWFORD           GA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 341.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200316

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
450 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0333 PM     TORNADO          1 NNW PAYNE CITY        32.87N  83.70W
04/05/2022                   BIBB               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN WITH TRAFFIC SIGNALS OUT NEAR
            INTERSECTION OF RIVOLLI DR AND FORSYTH

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200317

BAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
452 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E MERIWETHER          33.15N  83.27W
04/05/2022                   BALDWIN            GA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            NUMEROUS TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN ALONG HIGHWAY 441.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200318

NLIST

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
502 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TORNADO          1 NNE BONAIRE           32.56N  83.59W
04/05/2022                   HOUSTON            GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT OF 1 HOME DESTROYED WITH POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200319

BAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
524 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW JOHN TANNER STATE 33.58N  85.21W
04/05/2022                   CARROLL            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING NEAR INTERSECTION OF
            BURWELL RD AND DAVENPORT MILL RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200320

BAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
526 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW BOWDON            33.52N  85.29W
04/05/2022                   CARROLL            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING NEAR INTERSECTION OF CUMBIE
            RD AND SANDY FLAT RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200321

BAKER