Severe Thunderstorm Warning 23, NWS Atlanta, GA

863 
WWUS52 KFFC 051834
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
234 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAC171-197-263-269-293-051900-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-220405T1900Z/
Marion GA-Upson GA-Talbot GA-Taylor GA-Lamar GA-
234 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION...UPSON...EASTERN TALBOT...WESTERN TAYLOR AND
SOUTHERN LAMAR COUNTIES...

At 234 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Piedmont to near Big Lazer Creek Wma to near
Baldwinville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Thomaston, Barnesville, Butler, Yatesville, Junction City, Aldora,
Sunset Village, Lincoln Park, The Rock, Howard, Logtown, Sunnyside,
Salem, Prattsburg, Hannahs Mill, Big Lazer Creek Wma, Wesley Church,
Goggins, Baldwinville and Charing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for central and
west central Georgia.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 3275 8449 3296 8439 3300 8429 3299 8427
      3301 8427 3309 8407 3295 8404 3293 8406
      3293 8412 3287 8412 3280 8415 3269 8420
      3268 8418 3247 8423 3242 8450
TIME...MOT...LOC 1834Z 240DEG 38KT 3301 8422 3281 8437 3265 8439 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

413 
WWUS52 KFFC 051851
SVSFFC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
251 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAC197-051901-
/O.CAN.KFFC.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-220405T1900Z/
Marion GA-
251 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for central and
west central Georgia.

LAT...LON 3248 8441 3249 8443 3252 8443 3287 8433
      3299 8427 3309 8407 3295 8404 3293 8406
      3293 8412 3286 8412 3269 8420 3268 8418
      3247 8423 3244 8440
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 240DEG 38KT 3310 8404 3290 8419 3274 8421 

$$

GAC171-263-269-293-051900-
/O.CON.KFFC.SV.W.0023.000000T0000Z-220405T1900Z/
Upson GA-Talbot GA-Taylor GA-Lamar GA-
251 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EDT
FOR EASTERN UPSON...SOUTHEASTERN TALBOT...WESTERN TAYLOR AND SOUTHERN
LAMAR COUNTIES...

At 251 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Johnstonville to near Logtown to Salem, moving
northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Thomaston, Barnesville, Butler, Yatesville, The Rock, Lincoln Park,
Goggins, Charing, Redbone Crossroads, Mauk, Redbone, Howard, Logtown,
Salem, Prattsburg, Carsonville and Wesley Church.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for central and
west central Georgia.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Intense thunderstorm lines can produce brief tornadoes and widespread
significant wind damage. Although a tornado is not immediately
likely, it is best to move to an interior room on the lowest floor of
a building. These storms may cause serious injury and significant
property damage.

&&

LAT...LON 3248 8441 3249 8443 3252 8443 3287 8433
      3299 8427 3309 8407 3295 8404 3293 8406
      3293 8412 3286 8412 3269 8420 3268 8418
      3247 8423 3244 8440
TIME...MOT...LOC 1851Z 240DEG 38KT 3310 8404 3290 8419 3274 8421 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
WIND THREAT...RADAR INDICATED
MAX WIND GUST...60 MPH

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
127 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...Updated for 18Z Aviation Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 1206 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022/

UPDATE...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to overspread the
CWA this afternoon. The potential for severe weather will continue
and a TOR watch has been issued for much of the southern CWA.
Primary hazards this afternoon should be damaging wind gusts. A
tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

SHORT TERM /Today through Wednesday/...

Tuesday...

An Enhanced Risk Severe Weather Outlook has been forecast for most
of Central Georgia today with a threat for widespread damaging wind
gusts and several tornadoes possible, one or two of which may be
strong or long track. The primary threat will be this afternoon and
early evening, south of the I-20 corridor, with the highest severe
potential being along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon to
Augusta.

A strengthening low-level shortwave is currently digging across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and will continue moving eastward
throughout the day (best illustrated at 700 hPa). This shortwave
trough, with an associated low-level jet with winds over 60 kts
between 1-3 km aloft, will provide ample low-level lift throughout
the region with a weak low-pressure system being pulled across the
northern Gulf states through the day on Wednesday that will pull a
warm, moist Gulf airmass onto the forecast area throughout the
morning. Within this airmass...

* PWAT values are expected to surge well over 1.5" as dewpoints rise
  to the low 60s.
* Surface-based CAPE values over 1000 J/kg, possibly as high as 2000
  J/kg as afternoon highs reach the upper 60s and 70s.
* Abundant low-level shear due to the aforementioned jet manifests
  as 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values between 150-400 m2/s2.
* Quarter-circled shaped hodographs from 0-1.5 km and semi-circled
  hodographs from 0-6 km, storm relative inflow having
  nearly 100 percent streamwise vorticity vs crosswise vorticity.

These ingredients combined are expected to create numerous severe
thunderstorms this afternoon, taking the form of a quasi-linear
convective system (QLCS) projected to kick through this afternoon
with several discrete, strong to potentially severe cells ahead of
the main line in the late morning and early afternoon. The primary
threats being severe, damaging wind gusts contained in storm
downdrafts due to 50+ kt winds at 850 hPa (1 km AGL) being
transfered to the ground and tornadoes, with high-resolution models
resolving several embedded rotating supercells within a quasi-linear
convective line. Other threats include sparse large hail and
isolated flash flooding though the messy, fast-moving storm mode
will limit these other threats. The shear speed of this system being
pushed by the forcing of the shortwave through is perhaps the only
thing preventing a larger severe weather outbreak from being
forecast.

Wednesday...

The cold pool following this line of storms won't be all that 'cool'
with generally moist adiabatic, thermodynamic profiles.
Additionally, the weak surface low-pressure will be short-lived and
won't have the ability to pull colder air behind it in the form of a
true cold front with a larger, more robust low-pressure system to
the north in the western Great Lakes region keeping the area in
broad southerly flow. The result means warm, moist air will linger
throughout the forecast area.

In Central Georgia, a coastal boundary is expected to move into the
region with a much weaker shortwave moving over the southern Gulf
states aloft. Models are predicting an unorganized cluster of storms
to develop. With PWATs increasing to near 2 inches, but shear values
being diminished in the area with a lack of stronger synoptic
forcing will limit severe potential. A Slight Risk Severe Weather
Outlook is forecast for the area as a result. The primary threat for
Central Georgia by Wednesday could be flash flooding with the
cluster of storms pushing 48-hour rainfall totals to 2.5-4 inches of
rain. Current antecedent conditions combine with the sandy Coastal
Plains soils types suggest the area may be able to handle a second
dose of heavy precip, but will need to be reevaluated after the
first round of storms moves through. Furthermore, several questions
remain about the recovery of the atmosphere after this initial wave
of storms. Strong damaging winds may also be a concern in water-
loaded downdrafts, with outside threats for large hail and very
brief spin-up tornadoes.

In North Georgia, a true cold front will push southwards into the
Northwestern corner of Georgia by dusk, with decent moisture and
instability recovery expected after the initial wave of storms on
Tuesday. A low-end Enhanced Risk Severe Weather Outlook has been
issued for the area of far north and northwest Georgia, however,
several unresolved questions still exist with this potential sever
weather setup. With relatively drier air aloft, models are
struggling to produce robust storms in the region along the frontal
zone and there is some question if convective storms further south
could rob northern Georgia of significant instability. Furthermore,
the timing of the system in the late evening could prevent storms
from being surface-based, which could prevent storms from harnessing
better ow-level wind profiles into tornadic circulations. With these
questions in mind, the primary threats will still be damaging wind
gusts with a tornado or two possible.

Thiem

LONG TERM /Wednesday Night through Monday/...

By Thursday morning, some lingering stratiform precip. on the
periphery of Wednesday's system will be exiting the CWA to the east.
The impressive, expansive upper trough that fueled our final round
of active weather continues to dig further down across the
southeast, with a tight pressure gradient on its outer edge (~20-22
mb difference across GA). As such, gusty gradient winds will be
possible through Saturday afternoon when the trough begins to lift
across the mid-Atlantic states. Several shortwave disturbances
rounding the inner edge of the trough will lead to increased cloud
cover and brief bursts of rain across north GA on Friday into
Saturday. A surface high from over the Gulf and stout upper ridging
break the active pattern as they settle in across the southeast on
Sunday to round off the weekend and take us through the beginning of
the work week.

Temperatures will be quite cool for April standards following the
cold frontal passage on Thursday night. Highs will stall out in the
mid-50s to 60s, 12-15 degrees below average; lows through the
weekend will be in the 30s, about 5-10 degrees below average. As the
surface high begins to drift across the southeast Sunday, winds
shift to be primarily from the southeast, and temperatures recover
to seasonable highs in the 70s-80s and lows in the 40s.

96

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...

IFR/LIFR cigs and visbys at metro TAF sites. Expecting trend to
continue through the afternoon as convection moves across the
area, exiting around 20z. Winds go SW around 20z between 8-12kts,
with some gusts up to 22-25kts possible within heavier rain
bands. MVFR cigs through the evening with lighter SW winds,
dropping into IFR once more overnight through the morning. Have
recovery to MVFR by tomorrow afternoon but low confidence.
Introduced PROB30 for incoming afternoon convection tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium on lasting MVFR and MVFR vs IFR tomorrow morning
Medium on exit timing of SHRA/TSRA and PROB30 timing for tomorrow
afternoon
Medium to high on visbys
High on all other elements

Morgan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  60  78  55 / 100  30  50  60
Atlanta         68  61  77  52 / 100  20  50  70
Blairsville     63  52  76  46 / 100  40  50  80
Cartersville    70  58  80  48 / 100  20  50  70
Columbus        72  63  78  55 / 100  30  70  70
Gainesville     65  58  77  53 / 100  30  50  70
Macon           75  62  79  57 / 100  50  70  60
Rome            70  57  80  49 / 100  30  60  70
Peachtree City  70  61  78  51 / 100  20  60  70
Vidalia         82  66  78  65 / 100  90  70  50

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...Crawford...
Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Hancock...Harris...
Houston...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...Lamar...Laurens...
Macon...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...Montgomery...Muscogee...
Peach...Pike...Pulaski...Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...
Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...
Warren...Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....96
AVIATION...Morgan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1217 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-061030-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1217 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue across north
and central Georgia through the evening hours. Thunderstorms will
be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall. The primary severe hazard would be
damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. A tornado or two is also
possible. Repeated rounds of storms will increase the risk for
flooding and flash flooding of creeks and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

A line of showers and scattered thunderstorms will move through
the area on Wednesday afternoon. Some storms may become strong to
severe and capable of producing damaging wind gusts and isolated
large hail. A brief tornado or two are possible. Localized
flooding and flash flooding is possible, especially in areas that
received heavy rainfall on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation, especially this
afternoon across central Georgia. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
953 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAZ053-056-067>069-051430-
Upson GA-Coweta GA-Spalding GA-Meriwether GA-Pike GA-
953 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern
Spalding, northeastern Meriwether, Pike, northwestern Upson and
southeastern Coweta Counties through 1030 AM EDT...

At 953 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Molena, or 10 miles
east of Greenville, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Zebulon, Senoia, Woodbury, Brooks, Molena, Williamson, Orchard Hill,
Meansville, Haralson, Gay, Sunset Village, Atwater, Hilltop, Lifsey
Springs, Hollonville, Alvaton, Rover, Crest, Digbey and Zetella.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3332 8453 3318 8421 3319 8424 3319 8425
      3304 8425 3303 8428 3287 8444 3302 8468
TIME...MOT...LOC 1353Z 215DEG 36KT 3302 8453

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1000 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAZ068>071-051430-
Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Upson GA-Pike GA-
1000 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Pike,
southwestern Monroe, Upson and Lamar Counties through 1030 AM EDT...

At 959 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Redbone Crossroads, or
over Thomaston, moving northeast at 40 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Thomaston, Barnesville, Forsyth, Milner, Yatesville, Orchard Hill,
Meansville, Culloden, Aldora, Sunset Village, Lincoln Park, The Rock,
Goggins, Redbone Crossroads, Brent, Redbone, Logtown, Sunnyside,
Hannahs Mill and Collier.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3318 8422 3318 8419 3302 8390 3286 8411
      3285 8412 3284 8412 3275 8424 3286 8444
TIME...MOT...LOC 1359Z 216DEG 34KT 3288 8428

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1028 AM EDT TUE APR 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1014 AM     HAIL             3 ESE PIEDMONT          33.00N  84.19W
04/05/2022  E1.25 INCH       LAMAR              GA   PUBLIC

            HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED AT THE MARATHON GAS
            STATION.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200307

NLIST

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1036 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAZ056>058-070-071-051500-
Butts GA-Lamar GA-Monroe GA-Spalding GA-Henry GA-
1036 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Spalding,
northwestern Monroe, southeastern Henry, Butts and northern Lamar
Counties through 1100 AM EDT...

At 1035 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Chappel Mill, or 7
miles north of Barnesville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail and frequent
         cloud to ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
McDonough, Jackson, Locust Grove, Flovilla, Milner, Jenkinsburg,
Orchard Hill, Walker Mill, McKibben, Chappel Mill, High Falls State
Park, Blount, Liberty Hill, Johnstonville, Indian Springs State Park
and Stark.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3345 8413 3337 8386 3334 8386 3333 8384
      3332 8384 3330 8383 3306 8403 3313 8423
TIME...MOT...LOC 1435Z 203DEG 30KT 3316 8410

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1125 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAZ059>061-072-073-051600-
Putnam GA-Baldwin GA-Hancock GA-Jones GA-Jasper GA-
1125 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Baldwin,
southwestern Putnam, southwestern Hancock, northern Jones and
southeastern Jasper Counties through NOON EDT...

At 1124 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was over Bradley, or near Gray,
moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Milledgeville, Eatonton, Gray, Midway-Hardwick, Meriwether, Ethridge,
Bradley, Wayside, Allenwood, Haddock, Resseaus Crossroads, Round Oak,
Warfield, Clinton, Willard, Plant Harlee Branch, Hillsboro, Hardwick,
Browns Crossing and Stanfordville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3293 8359 3313 8373 3339 8339 3310 8311
TIME...MOT...LOC 1524Z 234DEG 46KT 3309 8355

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAZ039-050-051-061-062-051615-
Taliaferro GA-Wilkes GA-Hancock GA-Warren GA-Greene GA-
1148 AM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Warren, northeastern
Hancock, southeastern Greene, Taliaferro and southern Wilkes Counties
through 1215 PM EDT...

At 1148 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was near Barnett, or near
Crawfordville, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind, pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
         ground lightning.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Washington, Warrenton, Crawfordville, White Plains, Siloam, Norwood,
Sharon, Camak, Liberty, Springfield, Holliday Park, Powelton,
Newtown, Lyneville, Carters Grove, Ficklin, Cadley, Lundberg,
Robinson and Jewell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

&&

LAT...LON 3366 8251 3365 8252 3364 8256 3365 8258
      3363 8258 3364 8259 3363 8261 3363 8262
      3362 8262 3361 8265 3345 8259 3323 8283
      3341 8317 3387 8282 3366 8249 3364 8248
TIME...MOT...LOC 1548Z 226DEG 46KT 3347 8284

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH