River Flood Warning 72, NWS Atlanta, GA

195 
WGUS82 KFFC 060330
FLSFFC

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1130 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...

  Alcovy River near Alcovy River at New Hope Road near Grayson 
  affecting Gwinnett and Walton Counties.

GAC135-297-060430-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0072.000000T0000Z-220406T0330Z/
/ALCG1.1.ER.220405T2210Z.220406T0016Z.220406T0252Z.UU/
1130 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...FLOOD WARNING IS CANCELLED...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  the Alcovy River near Alcovy River at New Hope Road near Grayson.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...
  - At 11:01 PM EDT Tuesday the stage was 8.9 feet and falling.
  - Forecast...The river is expected to fall to 6.2 feet just
    after midnight tonight.
  - www.weather.gov/safety/flood

&&

LAT...LON 3391 8394 3394 8392 3396 8388 3383 8374
      3379 8379


$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
511 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

.UPDATE...

Trimmed the western edge of the TOR Watch.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 411 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022/

UPDATE...

Updated to trim some of the western end of the TOR Watch.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 309 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022/

.Afternoon Area Forecast Discussion...

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Wednesday Night/...

No major changes to the short term forecast through Wednesday.
Mesoanalysis shows warm front draped across portions of north-
central GA, along a line from Troup to Bibb to Warren. Most storms
north of this boundary remain elevated and are unlikely to
produce damage winds with a decreased Tor threat, however heavy
rainfall and lightning will remain an issue through the afternoon.
Primary concern remains south of the front in central Georgia
with temps in the upper 60s to mid 70s with Tds hovering in the
60s, with SBCAPE values ~500-1500 j/kg. See previous discussion
for more:

Previous Short Term Discussion....

Tuesday...

An Enhanced Risk Severe Weather Outlook has been forecast for most
of Central Georgia today with a threat for widespread damaging wind
gusts and several tornadoes possible, one or two of which may be
strong or long track. The primary threat will be this afternoon and
early evening, south of the I-20 corridor, with the highest severe
potential being along and south of a line from Columbus to Macon to
Augusta.

A strengthening low-level shortwave is currently digging across the
Lower Mississippi Valley and will continue moving eastward
throughout the day (best illustrated at 700 hPa). This shortwave
trough, with an associated low-level jet with winds over 60 kts
between 1-3 km aloft, will provide ample low-level lift throughout
the region with a weak low-pressure system being pulled across the
northern Gulf states through the day on Wednesday that will pull a
warm, moist Gulf airmass onto the forecast area throughout the
morning. Within this airmass...

* PWAT values are expected to surge well over 1.5" as dewpoints rise
  to the low 60s.
* Surface-based CAPE values over 1000 J/kg, possibly as high as 2000
  J/kg as afternoon highs reach the upper 60s and 70s.
* Abundant low-level shear due to the aforementioned jet manifests
  as 0-1 km storm-relative helicity values between 150-400 m2/s2.
* Quarter-circled shaped hodographs from 0-1.5 km and semi-circled
  hodographs from 0-6 km, storm relative inflow having
  nearly 100 percent streamwise vorticity vs crosswise vorticity.

These ingredients combined are expected to create numerous severe
thunderstorms this afternoon, taking the form of a quasi-linear
convective system (QLCS) projected to kick through this afternoon
with several discrete, strong to potentially severe cells ahead of
the main line in the late morning and early afternoon. The primary
threats being severe, damaging wind gusts contained in storm
downdrafts due to 50+ kt winds at 850 hPa (1 km AGL) being
transfered to the ground and tornadoes, with high-resolution models
resolving several embedded rotating supercells within a quasi-linear
convective line. Other threats include sparse large hail and
isolated flash flooding though the messy, fast-moving storm mode
will limit these other threats. The shear speed of this system being
pushed by the forcing of the shortwave through is perhaps the only
thing preventing a larger severe weather outbreak from being
forecast.

Wednesday...

The cold pool following this line of storms won't be all that 'cool'
with generally moist adiabatic, thermodynamic profiles.
Additionally, the weak surface low-pressure will be short-lived and
won't have the ability to pull colder air behind it in the form of a
true cold front with a larger, more robust low-pressure system to
the north in the western Great Lakes region keeping the area in
broad southerly flow. The result means warm, moist air will linger
throughout the forecast area.

In Central Georgia, a coastal boundary is expected to move into the
region with a much weaker shortwave moving over the southern Gulf
states aloft. Models are predicting an unorganized cluster of storms
to develop. With PWATs increasing to near 2 inches, but shear values
being diminished in the area with a lack of stronger synoptic
forcing will limit severe potential. A Slight Risk Severe Weather
Outlook is forecast for the area as a result. The primary threat for
Central Georgia by Wednesday could be flash flooding with the
cluster of storms pushing 48-hour rainfall totals to 2.5-4 inches of
rain. Current antecedent conditions combine with the sandy Coastal
Plains soils types suggest the area may be able to handle a second
dose of heavy precip, but will need to be reevaluated after the
first round of storms moves through. Furthermore, several questions
remain about the recovery of the atmosphere after this initial wave
of storms. Strong damaging winds may also be a concern in water-
loaded downdrafts, with outside threats for large hail and very
brief spin-up tornadoes.

In North Georgia, a true cold front will push southwards into the
Northwestern corner of Georgia by dusk, with decent moisture and
instability recovery expected after the initial wave of storms on
Tuesday. A low-end Enhanced Risk Severe Weather Outlook has been
issued for the area of far north and northwest Georgia, however,
several unresolved questions still exist with this potential sever
weather setup. With relatively drier air aloft, models are
struggling to produce robust storms in the region along the frontal
zone and there is some question if convective storms further south
could rob northern Georgia of significant instability. Furthermore,
the timing of the system in the late evening could prevent storms
from being surface-based, which could prevent storms from harnessing
better ow-level wind profiles into tornadic circulations. With these
questions in mind, the primary threats will still be damaging wind
gusts with a tornado or two possible.

Thiem/Morgan

LONG TERM /Thursday through Tuesday/...

No major changes needed to the extended portion of the forecast
today. Anomalously cold temperatures still expected Thursday Night
through Sunday Morning. There will definitely be a potential for
frost/freeze conditions, especially across north Ga during this
period.

Previous Extended Discussion....

By Thursday morning, some lingering stratiform precip. on the
periphery of Wednesday's system will be exiting the CWA to the east.
The impressive, expansive upper trough that fueled our final round
of active weather continues to dig further down across the
southeast, with a tight pressure gradient on its outer edge (~20-22
mb difference across GA). As such, gusty gradient winds will be
possible through Saturday afternoon when the trough begins to lift
across the mid-Atlantic states. Several shortwave disturbances
rounding the inner edge of the trough will lead to increased cloud
cover and brief bursts of rain across north GA on Friday into
Saturday. A surface high from over the Gulf and stout upper ridging
break the active pattern as they settle in across the southeast on
Sunday to round off the weekend and take us through the beginning of
the work week.

Temperatures will be quite cool for April standards following the
cold frontal passage on Thursday night. Highs will stall out in the
mid-50s to 60s, 12-15 degrees below average; lows through the
weekend will be in the 30s, about 5-10 degrees below average. As the
surface high begins to drift across the southeast Sunday, winds
shift to be primarily from the southeast, and temperatures recover
to seasonable highs in the 70s-80s and lows in the 40s.

Hochstatter/NListemaa

AVIATION...
18Z Update...

IFR/LIFR cigs and visbys at metro TAF sites. Expecting trend to
continue through the afternoon as convection moves across the
area, exiting around 20z. Winds go SW around 20z between 8-12kts,
with some gusts up to 22-25kts possible within heavier rain
bands. MVFR cigs through the evening with lighter SW winds,
dropping into IFR once more overnight through the morning. Have
recovery to MVFR by tomorrow afternoon but low confidence.
Introduced PROB30 for incoming afternoon convection tomorrow.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Low to medium on lasting MVFR and MVFR vs IFR tomorrow morning
Medium on exit timing of SHRA/TSRA and PROB30 timing for tomorrow
afternoon
Medium to high on visbys
High on all other elements

Morgan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          61  80  54  68 /  30  50  60   0
Atlanta         62  79  52  66 /  20  50  70   0
Blairsville     54  78  46  62 /  40  50  80   5
Cartersville    59  82  48  66 /  20  50  70   0
Columbus        63  81  54  70 /  30  70  70   0
Gainesville     61  79  53  65 /  30  50  70   0
Macon           62  83  56  73 /  50  70  60   5
Rome            59  82  49  67 /  30  60  70   0
Peachtree City  61  80  51  68 /  20  60  70   0
Vidalia         65  82  62  75 /  90  70  50  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Tornado Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for the following
zones: Dodge...Emanuel...Glascock...Jefferson...Johnson...
Laurens...Montgomery...Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Warren...
Washington...Wheeler.

Flood Watch from Wednesday morning through Thursday morning for
the following zones: Baldwin...Bibb...Bleckley...Chattahoochee...
Crawford...Crisp...Dodge...Dooly...Emanuel...Glascock...Greene...
Hancock...Harris...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...
Jones...Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Monroe...Montgomery...
Morgan...Muscogee...Oglethorpe...Peach...Pulaski...Putnam...
Schley...Stewart...Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...
Telfair...Toombs...Treutlen...Twiggs...Upson...Warren...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...NListemaa
LONG TERM....NListemaa
AVIATION...Morgan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1217 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-061030-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1217 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Widespread showers and thunderstorms will continue across north
and central Georgia through the evening hours. Thunderstorms will
be capable of producing frequent lightning strikes, gusty winds
and locally heavy rainfall. The primary severe hazard would be
damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph. A tornado or two is also
possible. Repeated rounds of storms will increase the risk for
flooding and flash flooding of creeks and streams.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

A line of showers and scattered thunderstorms will move through
the area on Wednesday afternoon. Some storms may become strong to
severe and capable of producing damaging wind gusts and isolated
large hail. A brief tornado or two are possible. Localized
flooding and flash flooding is possible, especially in areas that
received heavy rainfall on Tuesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should be prepared for activation, especially this
afternoon across central Georgia. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS while following all
local, state, and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
502 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0350 PM     TORNADO          1 NNE BONAIRE           32.56N  83.59W
04/05/2022                   HOUSTON            GA   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORT OF 1 HOME DESTROYED WITH POWERLINES DOWN.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200319

BAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
524 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW JOHN TANNER STATE 33.58N  85.21W
04/05/2022                   CARROLL            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING NEAR INTERSECTION OF
            BURWELL RD AND DAVENPORT MILL RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200320

BAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
526 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 WSW BOWDON            33.52N  85.29W
04/05/2022                   CARROLL            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROAD CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING NEAR INTERSECTION OF CUMBIE
            RD AND SANDY FLAT RD

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200321

BAKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
541 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0526 PM     TORNADO          SWAINSBORO              32.60N  82.33W
04/05/2022                   EMANUEL            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            REPORTS OF TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN SWAINSBORO.
            ADDITIONAL DAMAGE AROUND TOWN POSSIBLE. TDS NOTED FROM
            KJGX RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200322

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
548 PM EDT TUE APR 05 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STELLAVILLE             33.19N  82.33W
04/05/2022                   JEFFERSON          GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            1 METAL OUTDOOR STRUCTURE DAMAGED WITH TREES AND
            POWERLINES DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF CAMPGROUND RD
            AND HWY 80

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2200323

BAKER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
556 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

GAZ113-052230-
Toombs GA-
556 PM EDT Tue Apr 5 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Toombs
County through 630 PM EDT...

At 556 PM EDT, a line of strong thunderstorms was along a line
extending from New Branch to near Plant Hatch, and moving northeast
at 75 mph.

HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind, up to penny sized hail, frequent cloud
         to ground lightning and heavy rain.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
         light, unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
         street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

These storms will remain over mainly rural areas of southeastern
Toombs County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder, you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 700 PM EDT for southeastern
Georgia.

&&

LAT...LON 3192 8223 3191 8225 3193 8226 3193 8227
      3194 8228 3193 8230 3195 8231 3193 8231
      3194 8235 3194 8236 3214 8220 3191 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 225DEG 64KT 3208 8224 3190 8237

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH