Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1111 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 316 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2022

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon
  along a stationary front.

- A cluster of thunderstorms expected by mid-evening into tonight
  over much of the area, with some threat of straight-line winds
  and quarter-size hail in areas of northeast Kansas and northwest
  Missouri.

Today/tonight: Primary focus centers on the next 12 hours of the
forecast. As of early afternoon, surface observations depicted a
frontal boundary oriented NW-SE across the southwestern third of the
CWA, just SW of the KC Metro. Visible satellite imagery showed a
growing cumulus field, with some agitation near/SW of KC. As
inhibition lessens, anticipate widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon along/just north of the
frontal boundary where convergence is maximized. While an isolated
storm may become briefly strong, a much larger area of convection is
expected to evolve upstream over Nebraska and Iowa this evening into
tonight. As these thunderstorms cold pools consolidate during the
evening, an outflow-driven cluster will evolve and push into
northwest MO and northeast Kansas 1-2 hours post-sunset. The most
robust activity will have the potential for thunderstorm outflow
winds up to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters. With time,
waning instability and outflow displacement ahead of the line will
lead to a notable weakening of the complex as it works its way
across the CWA. The progressive nature of the complex should
mitigate any widespread flooding concerns (3-hour flash flood
guidance is in excess of two inches). However, storms this
afternoon/evening tied to the quasi-stationary boundary and storms
that develop ahead of the thunderstorm complex will have the
potential for heavy rainfall and the attendant threat for localized
flash flooding.

Rainfall should end from west to east Wednesday morning, with
surface high pressure building into the region. Dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of Wednesday and much of Thursday, with
temperatures near or slightly below seasonable levels and drier
humidity values.

Bu Thursday night into Friday morning, two focused areas of
thunderstorm activity appear to occur, both generally splitting the
CWA. The first focused area is in a region of strong isentropic
ascent across much of Iowa, with a second area tied to an
approaching wave and potential thunderstorm complex riding along an
instability axis over central Kansas. While scattered activity/light
rain is expected in between these two areas, widespread heavy
rainfall is not anticipated at this time. Tranquil weather returns
for the remainder of Friday into the weekend, with gradually warming
temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2022

The main line of convection has entered the area and is expected
to move southeast exiting central MO by 14Z. This line will reach
the KC metro around 06Z. We could see some lower visibility and
ceilings as the line moves through. The cold front passes through
behind the line. Ceilings in most areas should drop to high-end
MVFR behind the front for a few hours, then clouds will clear out.
Northwesterly winds will become breezy behind the front as well.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Atkins

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
520 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
520 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Rain showers possible this morning with another round of rain and
storms late tonight. A few strong, isolated storms may be possible
across the area this afternoon, with the main batch of storms
affecting the forecast area between 9 PM and 3 AM late tonight. The
main impacts include damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall
leading to localized flooding concerns.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 A break in rain and storms are expected Wednesday, with additional
rain possible Thursday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1030 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

MOZ002-012-080400-
Nodaway MO-Andrew MO-
1030 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Nodaway
and northern Andrew Counties through 1100 PM CDT...

At 1029 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Maitland, or 13 miles south of Maryville, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Barnard, Bolckow, Graham, Rosendale, Guilford, Rea and Conception.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
northwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9461 3999 9466 4007 9506 4008 9504
      4013 9505 4025 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 277DEG 18KT 4016 9496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CDB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1158 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1113 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ROCKPORT                40.41N 95.52W
06/07/2022                   ATCHISON           MO   911 CALL CENTER

            LIMBS DOWN ON ROAD IN ROCKPORT AND JUST
            OUTSIDE OF ROCKPORT ON HWY 111. SMALL HAIL
            AT DISPATCH CENTER.

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1212 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1010 PM     HAIL             1 W MAITLAND            40.21N 95.09W
06/07/2022  E1.00 INCH       HOLT               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1215 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1128 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUND CITY              40.13N 95.23W
06/07/2022                   HOLT               MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DISPATCH REPORTED A TREE DOWN IN MOUND CITY.

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1224 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1141 PM     HAIL             3 S STANBERRY           40.18N 94.53W
06/07/2022  E2.00 INCH       GENTRY             MO   PUBLIC

            SHERIFFS DEPUTY RELAYED A PUBLIC PHOTO OF
            HAIL ESTIMATED AT 2 INCHES SOUTH OF
            STANBERRY.

&&

PP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1249 AM CDT WED JUN 8 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 PM     HAIL             5 SW STANBERRY          40.17N 94.61W
06/07/2022  E2.00 INCH       GENTRY             MO   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA. TIME ESTIMATED VIA
            RADAR.

&&

PP