Severe Thunderstorm Warning 82, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
618 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

.Discussion...
Issued at 316 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2022

Key Messages:

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms expected this afternoon
  along a stationary front.

- A cluster of thunderstorms expected by mid-evening into tonight
  over much of the area, with some threat of straight-line winds
  and quarter-size hail in areas of northeast Kansas and northwest
  Missouri.

Today/tonight: Primary focus centers on the next 12 hours of the
forecast. As of early afternoon, surface observations depicted a
frontal boundary oriented NW-SE across the southwestern third of the
CWA, just SW of the KC Metro. Visible satellite imagery showed a
growing cumulus field, with some agitation near/SW of KC. As
inhibition lessens, anticipate widely scattered showers and
thunderstorms to develop this afternoon along/just north of the
frontal boundary where convergence is maximized. While an isolated
storm may become briefly strong, a much larger area of convection is
expected to evolve upstream over Nebraska and Iowa this evening into
tonight. As these thunderstorms cold pools consolidate during the
evening, an outflow-driven cluster will evolve and push into
northwest MO and northeast Kansas 1-2 hours post-sunset. The most
robust activity will have the potential for thunderstorm outflow
winds up to 60 mph and hail to the size of quarters. With time,
waning instability and outflow displacement ahead of the line will
lead to a notable weakening of the complex as it works its way
across the CWA. The progressive nature of the complex should
mitigate any widespread flooding concerns (3-hour flash flood
guidance is in excess of two inches). However, storms this
afternoon/evening tied to the quasi-stationary boundary and storms
that develop ahead of the thunderstorm complex will have the
potential for heavy rainfall and the attendant threat for localized
flash flooding.

Rainfall should end from west to east Wednesday morning, with
surface high pressure building into the region. Dry conditions are
expected for the remainder of Wednesday and much of Thursday, with
temperatures near or slightly below seasonable levels and drier
humidity values.

Bu Thursday night into Friday morning, two focused areas of
thunderstorm activity appear to occur, both generally splitting the
CWA. The first focused area is in a region of strong isentropic
ascent across much of Iowa, with a second area tied to an
approaching wave and potential thunderstorm complex riding along an
instability axis over central Kansas. While scattered activity/light
rain is expected in between these two areas, widespread heavy
rainfall is not anticipated at this time. Tranquil weather returns
for the remainder of Friday into the weekend, with gradually warming
temperatures.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 617 PM CDT TUE JUN 7 2022

Quiet conditions are expected mostly this evening going into the
overnight. Can't rule out some isolated storms developing, but
they should be small and few and far between. The main line of
storms will enter northwest MO/northeast KS around 03Z and move
southeast exiting central MO by 14Z. This line will reach the KC
metro around 06Z. We could see some lower visibility as the line
moves through. The cold front passes through behind the line.
Ceilings in most areas should drop to high-end MVFR behind the
front for a few hours, then clouds will clear out. Northwesterly
winds will become breezy behind the front as well.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Blair
Aviation...Atkins

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
520 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-081030-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
520 AM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Rain showers possible this morning with another round of rain and
storms late tonight. A few strong, isolated storms may be possible
across the area this afternoon, with the main batch of storms
affecting the forecast area between 9 PM and 3 AM late tonight. The
main impacts include damaging winds, large hail, and heavy rainfall
leading to localized flooding concerns.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

 A break in rain and storms are expected Wednesday, with additional
rain possible Thursday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1030 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

MOZ002-012-080400-
Nodaway MO-Andrew MO-
1030 PM CDT Tue Jun 7 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Nodaway
and northern Andrew Counties through 1100 PM CDT...

At 1029 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Maitland, or 13 miles south of Maryville, moving
east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Barnard, Bolckow, Graham, Rosendale, Guilford, Rea and Conception.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT for
northwestern Missouri.

&&

LAT...LON 4025 9461 3999 9466 4007 9506 4008 9504
      4013 9505 4025 9503
TIME...MOT...LOC 0329Z 277DEG 18KT 4016 9496

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

CDB