Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
654 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Stacked upper low in sw MN was beginning to spread large scale
ascent across the cwa with thunderstorms developing in the
instability and 30-35 kt bulk shear.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Stacked upper low will track southeast into eastern IA with
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. The
more widespread pcpn should occur during the afternoon and evening
with the heating of the day. SPC has a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms through this evening, with a marginal risk for
Saturday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are
the main risks but a tornado or two is possible with the atmosphere
rotating with the upper low overhead. In addition, the storms
will be slow moving so heavy rainfall is likely. lows tonight in
the lower 60s with highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Key Message:

1) Mostly dry weather ahead of us, with seasonal temperatures
forecast. Setting up to be a beautiful start to the work week!

Discussion...

Sunday will be the start of a stretch of beautiful weather for the
area. The cut off low will continue to slowly push off to the east,
allowing high pressure to filter into the area. While we may see
some lingering showers early Sunday morning, those will quickly move
out and leave much of the area dry through the day. High pressure
will stick around through the first half of the week, with light
winds, mostly clear skies, and seasonal temperatures.

With high pressure overhead, precipitation chances through the first
half of the week will be little to none. Mid to late week, we get
under northwest flow, which will put us in a pattern with the chance
to get a handful of weak systems that push through. Thus, Wednesday
and beyond, we can start to see precipitation chances on the rise.
At this time, we aren't seeing any hints at large and widespread
rainfall/thunderstorm events through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Closed upper low will track out of southern MN and into northern
IA with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the taf sites
tonight through Saturday. Ocnl MVFR/lcl IFR conds near/in tsra.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Haase

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
350 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-200900-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
350 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into
tonight, mostly between 4 PM and 10 PM. There is a slight risk
for severe storms in the counties along and west of the
Mississippi River. The primary risks are strong wind gusts and
large hail. A secondary threat is localized minor flooding from
heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated on
Saturday. The main risk is gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into early tonight.

Uttech

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
848 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0845 PM     TSTM WND GST     MORLEY                  42.01N 91.24W
08/19/2022  E65 MPH          JONES              IA   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            WIND GUST ESTIMATED BY MORLEY FIRE CHIEF.

&&

HAASE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
858 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

IAZ067-068-078-089-ILZ015-016-024>026-200300-
Warren IL-Mercer IL-Henderson IL-Rock Island IL-Henry IL-Scott IA-
Des Moines IA-Muscatine IA-Louisa IA-
858 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern
Henderson, northwestern Warren, Rock Island, Mercer, west central
Henry, northern Des Moines, southeastern Louisa, southwestern Scott
and south central Muscatine Counties through 1000 PM CDT...

At 858 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Fairport to near Joy to 6 miles northeast of
Danville. Movement was east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Moline, Rock Island, Muscatine, East Moline, Aledo, Oquawka, Silvis,
Milan, Coal Valley, Burgess, Mediapolis, Andalusia, Viola,
Millersburg, Matherville, New Boston, Sherrard, Keithsburg, Reynolds
and Eliza.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 74 in Illinois between mile markers 2 and 8.
 Interstate 280 between mile markers 11 and 18.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4097 9136 4107 9120 4111 9115 4113 9110
      4116 9109 4118 9110 4124 9111 4130 9107
      4141 9105 4143 9097 4142 9093 4145 9085
      4145 9073 4151 9042 4118 9040 4093 9079
TIME...MOT...LOC 0158Z 264DEG 22KT 4145 9089 4116 9088 4091 9122

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Gibbs

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
900 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             2 N MONTICELLO          42.26N 91.19W
08/19/2022  E0.50 INCH       JONES              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

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