Severe Thunderstorm Warning 131, NWS Quad Cities, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
654 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Stacked upper low in sw MN was beginning to spread large scale
ascent across the cwa with thunderstorms developing in the
instability and 30-35 kt bulk shear.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Stacked upper low will track southeast into eastern IA with
several rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday. The
more widespread pcpn should occur during the afternoon and evening
with the heating of the day. SPC has a slight risk for severe
thunderstorms through this evening, with a marginal risk for
Saturday afternoon and evening. Large hail and damaging winds are
the main risks but a tornado or two is possible with the atmosphere
rotating with the upper low overhead. In addition, the storms
will be slow moving so heavy rainfall is likely. lows tonight in
the lower 60s with highs on Saturday in the mid to upper 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Key Message:

1) Mostly dry weather ahead of us, with seasonal temperatures
forecast. Setting up to be a beautiful start to the work week!

Discussion...

Sunday will be the start of a stretch of beautiful weather for the
area. The cut off low will continue to slowly push off to the east,
allowing high pressure to filter into the area. While we may see
some lingering showers early Sunday morning, those will quickly move
out and leave much of the area dry through the day. High pressure
will stick around through the first half of the week, with light
winds, mostly clear skies, and seasonal temperatures.

With high pressure overhead, precipitation chances through the first
half of the week will be little to none. Mid to late week, we get
under northwest flow, which will put us in a pattern with the chance
to get a handful of weak systems that push through. Thus, Wednesday
and beyond, we can start to see precipitation chances on the rise.
At this time, we aren't seeing any hints at large and widespread
rainfall/thunderstorm events through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 648 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

Closed upper low will track out of southern MN and into northern
IA with scattered showers and thunderstorms across the taf sites
tonight through Saturday. Ocnl MVFR/lcl IFR conds near/in tsra.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Haase
SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Gunkel
AVIATION...Haase

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
350 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

IAZ040>042-051>054-063>068-076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ001-002-007-
009-015>018-024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-200900-
Buchanan-Delaware-Dubuque-Benton-Linn-Jones-Jackson-Iowa-Johnson-
Cedar-Clinton-Muscatine-Scott-Keokuk-Washington-Louisa-Jefferson-
Henry IA-Des Moines-Van Buren-Lee-Jo Daviess-Stephenson-Carroll-
Whiteside-Rock Island-Henry IL-Bureau-Putnam-Mercer-Henderson-
Warren-Hancock-McDonough-Scotland-Clark-
350 AM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of north central
Illinois...northwest Illinois...west central Illinois...east
central Iowa...northeast Iowa...southeast Iowa and northeast
Missouri.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Scattered thunderstorms are expected from late this afternoon into
tonight, mostly between 4 PM and 10 PM. There is a slight risk
for severe storms in the counties along and west of the
Mississippi River. The primary risks are strong wind gusts and
large hail. A secondary threat is localized minor flooding from
heavy downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Occasional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are anticipated on
Saturday. The main risk is gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon into early tonight.

Uttech

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
737 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     HAIL             LANARK                  42.10N 89.83W
08/19/2022  E0.88 INCH       CARROLL            IL   PUBLIC

            OCCURRING RIGHT NOW.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
742 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0741 PM     HAIL             2 WSW FREEPORT          42.28N 89.67W
08/19/2022  E0.70 INCH       STEPHENSON         IL   PUBLIC

            OCCURRING RIGHT NOW.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
800 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 N CONESVILLE          41.40N 91.35W
08/19/2022                   MUSCATINE          IA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT VIA AMATEUR RADIO. TREES DOWN
            BLOCKING THE ROAD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF
            CONESVILLE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
804 PM CDT FRI AUG 19 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0746 PM     HEAVY RAIN       3 N MUSCATINE           41.46N 91.07W
08/19/2022  U0.00 INCH       MUSCATINE          IA   AMATEUR RADIO

            DELAYED REPORT. WATER 3-4 INCHES DEEP ACROSS
            TIPTON ROAD.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
810 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

IAZ052-053-064-065-067-077-078-ILZ024-200200-
Mercer IL-Linn IA-Washington IA-Muscatine IA-Cedar IA-Louisa IA-
Jones IA-Johnson IA-
810 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of west central Mercer,
Louisa, western Cedar, eastern Johnson, eastern Washington,
southwestern Jones, western Muscatine and southeastern Linn Counties
through 900 PM CDT...

At 810 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from Springville to Wyman. Movement was east at 20
mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Mount Vernon, Lisbon, Springville and Whittier around 815 PM CDT.
  Viola around 820 PM CDT.
  Columbus Junction, Columbus City, Martelle and Stone City around
  825 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Anamosa, Morley,
Wapello, Letts, Olin, Grandview, Fruitland and Center Junction.

This includes Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 245 and 268.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 4215 9109 4114 9108 4118 9154 4211 9153
TIME...MOT...LOC 0110Z 265DEG 19KT 4204 9146 4123 9146

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Gibbs

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA/IL
837 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

IAZ053-054-065>068-200230-
Scott IA-Clinton IA-Jackson IA-Muscatine IA-Cedar IA-Jones IA-
837 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022

...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Rock
Island, southwestern Jo Daviess, Jackson, eastern Cedar, Scott,
southeastern Jones, northeastern Muscatine and Clinton Counties
through 930 PM CDT...

At 836 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking an outflow boundary ahead
of strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Onslow to
near Muscatine. Movement was east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Strong thunderstorms will be near...
  Monmouth and Canton around 845 PM CDT.
  Montpelier around 850 PM CDT.
  Blue Grass and Nashville around 855 PM CDT.

Other locations in the path of these storms include Maquoketa,
Buffalo, Fulton, Hurstville, Andrew, Rock Island, Springbrook,
Spragueville, Preston and Green Island.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 74 in Iowa between mile markers 1 and 5.
 Interstate 80 in Iowa between mile markers 268 and 306.
 Interstate 280 between mile markers 1 and 9.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 9036 4217 9027 4177 9028 4173 9032
      4170 9031 4168 9033 4165 9034 4159 9034
      4157 9041 4152 9046 4152 9056 4151 9059
      4148 9063 4144 9109 4220 9112 4223 9040
TIME...MOT...LOC 0136Z 271DEG 41KT 4214 9103 4145 9103

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

Gibbs