Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
141 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong south-southwest prefrontal flow will bring a significant
warmup to central PA today with temperatures ramping into the
60s to near 70 degrees. This surge of warmth will be accompanied
by rounds of showers and the potential for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Breezy and cooler conditions return
for the end of the week along with rain/snow showers in the
western and central Alleghenies to kick of the month of April.
Fair and seasonable weather is expected to start the weekend
followed by an increasing chance of showers on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Noon update:

Initial stages of this afternoon's anticipated Severe Weather
Event underway with the first SVR for Elk and Clearfield
counties and SVR Watch Coordination with SPC.

Very strong shear and relatively low cape environment prompted
an upgrade of the previous Slight Risk SPC DY1 outlook to an
Enhanced (Level 3/5) Risk for much of Eastern PA this afternoon.

We're expecting 1 or possibly 2 lines of TSRA with embedded SVR
wind gusts from the West to Southwest as low to mid level
descending intrusions of stronger momentum mix down in
downdrafts as damaging wind gusts with the potential for QLCS
tornadoes.

Significant breaks in the cloud cover have developed to the NW
of the Laurel Highlands and NW mtns as a result of the
strong/descending southerly LLVL flow.

This has resulted in a north-south oriented band of
marginal instability (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) to develop ahead of
a strong cold front pushing eastward from Ohio across central PA
between ~18Z Thu- 03Z Fri.

Prefrontal low level wind profiles are quite impressive with
SWly 850mb LLJ of 50-70 kts or +3SD. This alone combined with BL
mixing will support gradient-driven peak wind gusts in the
35-45 mph range or just under advy criteria. This low CAPE/high
SHEAR setup favors a linear convective mode with damaging winds
being the main threat. However, SPC left the door open to
increase wind/tornado probs should greater instability be
realized.

Deep southerly flow ahead of the cold front will transport
anomalous moisture into CPA with precipitable water values
ranging from 1.2 to 1.5 inches or +1.5 to +2.5SD. Given divergent
and diffluent flow aloft, the PWAT values support the potential
for rainfall between 1.0 and 1.5 inches in an hour where brief
cell training occurs. While 0-6 km mean winds near 50 kt will
favor fast individual cell movement, orientation of convective
bands with the mean wind will allow for short term southwest to
northeast training segments with potential for 1 to 2+ inches
of rain. WPC has maintained a MRGL risk ERO (1 out of 4) which
essentially overlays with the SPC D1 SLGT risk SWO (2 out of
5).

There should be a relative min in shower activity early tonight
before upper low and colder air aloft overspread the area into
Friday morning. This colder NW flow pattern will result in an
uptick in rain/snow showers across the western and central
Alleghenies with a coating of snow possible at the highest
elevations west of US219 by 12Z Friday. Temps will tumble (20-30
degrees from daytime highs) tonight falling into the low 30s NW
to mid 40s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Breezy and colder end to the week with lake enhanced and
upslope rain/snow showers continuing across the western and
central Alleghenies to kick off the month of April (no foolin').
Vort max embedded in mid level trough will swing through PA
with steep lapse rates providing some support for brief heavy
snow showers/localized squalls which could lead to difficult
travel at times due to quickly lowered visibility. Air temps and
sfc Tw hold AOA 32F across the higher elevations during the day
so would expect accumulations to be hard to come by. Warm road
temps during the day are also a limiting factor this time of
year/late in the season. Temps trend colder Friday night, but
model guidance shows snow showers tapering off across the
western/northern mtns as center of 1025mb high pressure reaches
western PA by 12Z Saturday. The high will provide a fair and
seasonable start to the first weekend of April with maxT getting
back to near normal vs. climo. Shower chances are increasing
Saturday night with another shortwave dropping southeast through
the Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After a cool down for the weekend, temperatures trend back
up. The main issue will be the continue chance for showers
quite often. Still some spread between the GFS and EC models
to how the large scale flow plays out.

Earlier discussion below.

Sunday looks showery and cool as a shortwave/clipper rolls in
from the Grt Lks. After a small ridge of high pressure provides
fair and seasonable weather again for Monday, a more unsettled
pattern will set up for the remainder of next week. Long range
guidance shows a deep trough digging into the central US and
becoming partially cut off from the main jet stream as it moves
slowly eastward. A shortwave trough will ride into the Midwest
and Tennessee Valley Tue-Wed as a W-E oriented warm frontal
boundary slowly lifts toward PA. This will bring an initial
chance for showers to the region. By late week, a more
noteworthy upper low will drop into the Great Lakes from
western Canada bringing potential for more widespread showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly MVFR Cigs and VFR Vsbys expected through this afternoon
with a period of VFR across the Western Mtns in advance of a
cold front moving across far eastern Ohio at midday.

Brief LIFR conditions in RW+/TSRA will occur across the region
this afternoon with the greatest threat across the Eastern half
of PA.

Strong southerly winds will support LLWS at all airfields
through much of the day today.

Chance of strong to severe storms today, entering the northwest
areas like KBFD and KJST early this aftn, then spreading east
through the mid/late afternoon and early evening.

Outlook...

Fri...Wind gusts 20-30kts from 260-290 degrees. Sct snow showers
and IFR/MVFR conditions northwest 1/2.

Sat-Sun...MVFR cigs west bcmg VFR. Rain/snow showers possible
Sat night into Sunday.

Mon...Mainly dry with VFR conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Martin/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert/Travis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
217 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

PAZ004>006-010-011-017-024-011830-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Clearfield-Cambria-
217 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ012-018-019-025>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-011830-
Northern Clinton-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-
Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Tioga-
Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-
Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-
Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
217 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 87 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Lambert

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
306 PM EDT THU MAR 31 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0245 PM     HAIL             4 E HOWARD              41.01N 77.59W
03/31/2022  E1.00 INCH       CENTRE             PA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JRB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
307 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

PAZ019-025>027-311945-
Blair PA-Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-Southern Centre PA-
307 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHERN HUNTINGDON...WEST
CENTRAL MIFFLIN AND EAST CENTRAL BLAIR COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM EDT...

At 307 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Huntingdon, moving northeast at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Huntingdon, Belleville, Pine Grove Mills, Ramblewood, Allensville,
Franklinville, Whipple Dam State Park, Mcalevys Fort, Raystown Dam,
Rock Springs, McConnellstown, Petersburg, Mapleton, Alexandria, Mill
Creek and Juniata College.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for
central Pennsylvania.

&&

LAT...LON 4031 7807 4043 7821 4065 7811 4075 7799
      4075 7779 4059 7763
TIME...MOT...LOC 1907Z 231DEG 39KT 4043 7805

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH

JCG