Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
141 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong south-southwest prefrontal flow will bring a significant
warmup to central PA today with temperatures ramping into the
60s to near 70 degrees. This surge of warmth will be accompanied
by rounds of showers and the potential for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Breezy and cooler conditions return
for the end of the week along with rain/snow showers in the
western and central Alleghenies to kick of the month of April.
Fair and seasonable weather is expected to start the weekend
followed by an increasing chance of showers on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Noon update:

Initial stages of this afternoon's anticipated Severe Weather
Event underway with the first SVR for Elk and Clearfield
counties and SVR Watch Coordination with SPC.

Very strong shear and relatively low cape environment prompted
an upgrade of the previous Slight Risk SPC DY1 outlook to an
Enhanced (Level 3/5) Risk for much of Eastern PA this afternoon.

We're expecting 1 or possibly 2 lines of TSRA with embedded SVR
wind gusts from the West to Southwest as low to mid level
descending intrusions of stronger momentum mix down in
downdrafts as damaging wind gusts with the potential for QLCS
tornadoes.

Significant breaks in the cloud cover have developed to the NW
of the Laurel Highlands and NW mtns as a result of the
strong/descending southerly LLVL flow.

This has resulted in a north-south oriented band of
marginal instability (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) to develop ahead of
a strong cold front pushing eastward from Ohio across central PA
between ~18Z Thu- 03Z Fri.

Prefrontal low level wind profiles are quite impressive with
SWly 850mb LLJ of 50-70 kts or +3SD. This alone combined with BL
mixing will support gradient-driven peak wind gusts in the
35-45 mph range or just under advy criteria. This low CAPE/high
SHEAR setup favors a linear convective mode with damaging winds
being the main threat. However, SPC left the door open to
increase wind/tornado probs should greater instability be
realized.

Deep southerly flow ahead of the cold front will transport
anomalous moisture into CPA with precipitable water values
ranging from 1.2 to 1.5 inches or +1.5 to +2.5SD. Given divergent
and diffluent flow aloft, the PWAT values support the potential
for rainfall between 1.0 and 1.5 inches in an hour where brief
cell training occurs. While 0-6 km mean winds near 50 kt will
favor fast individual cell movement, orientation of convective
bands with the mean wind will allow for short term southwest to
northeast training segments with potential for 1 to 2+ inches
of rain. WPC has maintained a MRGL risk ERO (1 out of 4) which
essentially overlays with the SPC D1 SLGT risk SWO (2 out of
5).

There should be a relative min in shower activity early tonight
before upper low and colder air aloft overspread the area into
Friday morning. This colder NW flow pattern will result in an
uptick in rain/snow showers across the western and central
Alleghenies with a coating of snow possible at the highest
elevations west of US219 by 12Z Friday. Temps will tumble (20-30
degrees from daytime highs) tonight falling into the low 30s NW
to mid 40s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Breezy and colder end to the week with lake enhanced and
upslope rain/snow showers continuing across the western and
central Alleghenies to kick off the month of April (no foolin').
Vort max embedded in mid level trough will swing through PA
with steep lapse rates providing some support for brief heavy
snow showers/localized squalls which could lead to difficult
travel at times due to quickly lowered visibility. Air temps and
sfc Tw hold AOA 32F across the higher elevations during the day
so would expect accumulations to be hard to come by. Warm road
temps during the day are also a limiting factor this time of
year/late in the season. Temps trend colder Friday night, but
model guidance shows snow showers tapering off across the
western/northern mtns as center of 1025mb high pressure reaches
western PA by 12Z Saturday. The high will provide a fair and
seasonable start to the first weekend of April with maxT getting
back to near normal vs. climo. Shower chances are increasing
Saturday night with another shortwave dropping southeast through
the Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
After a cool down for the weekend, temperatures trend back
up. The main issue will be the continue chance for showers
quite often. Still some spread between the GFS and EC models
to how the large scale flow plays out.

Earlier discussion below.

Sunday looks showery and cool as a shortwave/clipper rolls in
from the Grt Lks. After a small ridge of high pressure provides
fair and seasonable weather again for Monday, a more unsettled
pattern will set up for the remainder of next week. Long range
guidance shows a deep trough digging into the central US and
becoming partially cut off from the main jet stream as it moves
slowly eastward. A shortwave trough will ride into the Midwest
and Tennessee Valley Tue-Wed as a W-E oriented warm frontal
boundary slowly lifts toward PA. This will bring an initial
chance for showers to the region. By late week, a more
noteworthy upper low will drop into the Great Lakes from
western Canada bringing potential for more widespread showers.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Mainly MVFR Cigs and VFR Vsbys expected through this afternoon
with a period of VFR across the Western Mtns in advance of a
cold front moving across far eastern Ohio at midday.

Brief LIFR conditions in RW+/TSRA will occur across the region
this afternoon with the greatest threat across the Eastern half
of PA.

Strong southerly winds will support LLWS at all airfields
through much of the day today.

Chance of strong to severe storms today, entering the northwest
areas like KBFD and KJST early this aftn, then spreading east
through the mid/late afternoon and early evening.

Outlook...

Fri...Wind gusts 20-30kts from 260-290 degrees. Sct snow showers
and IFR/MVFR conditions northwest 1/2.

Sat-Sun...MVFR cigs west bcmg VFR. Rain/snow showers possible
Sat night into Sunday.

Mon...Mainly dry with VFR conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert/Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Martin/Colbert
AVIATION...Lambert/Travis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1210 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

PAZ004>006-010-011-011615-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-
1210 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible during the
through the early afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-011615-
Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-
Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1210 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph this afternoon
could blow around unsecured objects, knock down tree limbs, and
result in difficult driving for high profile vehicles.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts 60 mph or greater are
possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also
possible and could lead to short term flooding primarily affecting
places that can experience rapid runoff.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1205 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

PAZ005-311645-
McKean PA-
1205 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MCKEAN COUNTY THROUGH
1245 PM EDT...

At 1205 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kane, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kane, Port Allegany, Smethport, Rew, Coryville, Cyclone, Kinzua
Bridge State Park, Crosby, Mount Jewett, Eldred, Ceres and Bradford
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 7821 4185 7821 4163 7859 4163 7895
      4200 7843 4200 7820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 230DEG 46KT 4165 7879

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Colbert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1235 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

PAZ024-025-033-311700-
Somerset PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-
1235 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL SOMERSET...
NORTHWESTERN BLAIR AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES THROUGH 100 PM EDT...

At 1235 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ebensburg to near Johnstown to 11 miles
west of Windber. Movement was northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Johnstown, Windber, Ebensburg, Nanty-Glo, Portage, Westmont, Belmont,
Geistown, Southmont, Patton, Cresson, Gallitzin, Vinco, Loretto,
Dale, East Conemaugh, Salix-Beauty Line Park, Davidsville,
Beaverdale-Lloydell and Paint.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Very heavy rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4036 7900 4060 7886 4065 7853 4065 7839
      4033 7862 4025 7881 4018 7901 4017 7914
TIME...MOT...LOC 1635Z 227DEG 46KT 4059 7869 4039 7887 4022 7905

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Colbert

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