Severe Thunderstorm Warning 13, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
723 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong south-southwest prefrontal flow will bring a significant
warmup to central PA today with temperatures ramping into the
60s to near 70 degrees. This surge of warmth will be accompanied
by rounds of showers and the potential for severe thunderstorms
this afternoon and evening. Breezy and cooler conditions return
for the end of the week along with rain/snow showers in the
western and central Alleghenies to kick of the month of April.
Fair and seasonable weather is expected to start the weekend
followed by an increasing chance of showers on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
720AM/1120Z: Final update included an increase in POPs to match
radar trends and adjustments to temps which have remained
in non-diurnal (warming) trend outside of the sheltered
valleys in east-central PA.

Previous Discussion Issued: 452 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

Non-diurnal (rising) temp trend continues through the predawn
hours (outside of some sheltered/decoupled valley locales) thanks
to increasing southerly low level flow/warm advection. An
unseasonably mild start today will yield a very warm afternoon
with highs in the 60s to near 70F or +10-15F above last-day-of-
March climo. Low clouds in the lower Susquehanna Valley should
slow/temper the rate of warming to some extent this morning.
Hires model data shows scattered to numerous rain showers
developing along the spine of the Alleghenies this morning and
gradually expanding eastward through mid day.

The primary focus in the near term period will be on the potential
for strong/severe t-storms later in the afternoon/early evening.
A few cloud breaks should allow a north-south oriented ribbon of
marginal instability (250-500 J/kg MLCAPE) to develop ahead of
a strong cold front pushing eastward from Ohio across central PA
between ~18Z Thu-03Z Fri. Prefrontal low level wind profiles
are quite impressive with SWly 850mb LLJ of 50-70 kts or +3SD.
This alone combined with BL mixing will support gradient-driven
peak wind gusts in the 35-45 mph range or just under advy
criteria. This low CAPE/high SHEAR setup favors a linear
convective mode with damaging winds being the main threat.
However, SPC left the door open to increase wind/tornado probs
should greater instability be realized.

Deep southerly flow ahead of the cold front will transport
anomalous moisture into CPA with precipitable water values
ranging from 1.2 to 1.5 inches or +1.5 to +2.5SD. Given divergent
and diffluent flow aloft, the PWAT values support the potential
for rainfall between 1.0 and 1.5 inches in an hour where brief
cell training occurs. While 0-6 km mean winds near 50 kt will
favor fast individual cell movement, orientation of convective
bands with the mean wind will allow for short term southwest to
northeast training segments with potential for 1 to 2+ inches
of rain. WPC has maintained a MRGL risk ERO (1 out of 4) which
essentially overlays with the SPC D1 SLGT risk SWO (2 out of
5).

There should be a relative min in shower activity early tonight
before upper low and colder air aloft overspread the area into
Friday morning. This colder NW flow pattern will result in an
uptick in rain/snow showers across the western and central
Alleghenies with a coating of snow possible at the highest
elevations west of US219 by 12Z Friday. Temps will tumble (20-30
degrees from daytime highs) tonight falling into the low 30s NW
to mid 40s SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Breezy and colder end to the week with lake enhanced and
upslope rain/snow showers continuing across the western and
central Alleghenies to kick off the month of April (no foolin').
Vort max embedded in mid level trough will swing through PA
with steep lapse rates providing some support for brief heavy
snow showers/localized squalls which could lead to difficult
travel at times due to quickly lowered visibility. Air temps and
sfc Tw hold AOA 32F across the higher elevations during the day
so would expect accumulations to be hard to come by. Warm road
temps during the day are also a limiting factor this time of
year/late in the season. Temps trend colder Friday night, but
model guidance shows snow showers tapering off across the
western/northern mtns as center of 1025mb high pressure reaches
western PA by 12Z Saturday. The high will provide a fair and
seasonable start to the first weekend of April with maxT getting
back to near normal vs. climo. Shower chances are increasing
Saturday night with another shortwave dropping southeast through
the Great Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Sunday looks showery and cool as a shortwave/clipper rolls in
from the Grt Lks. After a small ridge of high pressure provides
fair and seasonable weather again for Monday, a more unsettled
pattern will set up for the remainder of next week. Long range
guidance shows a deep trough digging into the central US and
becoming partially cut off from the main jet stream as it moves
slowly eastward. A shortwave trough will ride into the Midwest
and Tennessee Valley Tue-Wed as a W-E oriented warm frontal
boundary slowly lifts toward PA. This will bring an initial
chance for showers to the region. By late week, a more
noteworthy upper low will drop into the Great Lakes from western
Canada bringing potential for more widespread showers.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions expected early this morning with the
exception of MDT and LNS where low clouds have moved in from the
east leading to MVFR cigs at those locations.

Strong southerly winds will support LLWS at all airfields
through much of the day today.

Chance of strong to severe storms today, entering the northwest
areas like KBFD and KJST early aft, then spreading east through
the afternoon and early evening.

Outlook...

Fri...Wind gusts 20-30kts from 260-290 degrees. Sct snow showers
and IFR/MVFR conditions northwest 1/2.

Sat-Sun...MVFR cigs west bcmg VFR. Rain/snow showers possible
Sat night into Sunday.

Mon...Mainly dry with VFR conditions.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl
NEAR TERM...Steinbugl
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...RXR/Colbert
AVIATION...Gartner/Travis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
1210 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

PAZ004>006-010-011-011615-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-
1210 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are possible during the
through the early afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-
063>066-011615-
Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Cambria-
Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-
Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Perry-Dauphin-
Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
1210 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Non-thunderstorm wind gusts between 35 and 45 mph this afternoon
could blow around unsecured objects, knock down tree limbs, and
result in difficult driving for high profile vehicles.

Severe thunderstorms with damaging wind gusts 60 mph or greater are
possible this afternoon and evening. Locally heavy rainfall is also
possible and could lead to short term flooding primarily affecting
places that can experience rapid runoff.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Lambert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1010 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

PAZ004-311430-
Warren PA-
1010 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...A GUSTY SHOWER WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY THROUGH 1030
AM EDT...

At 1010 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gusty shower 13 miles
southwest of Jamestown, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Columbus, Spring Creek, Lottsville, Sugar Grove and Bear Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7915 4181 7961 4199 7961 4200 7960
TIME...MOT...LOC 1410Z 234DEG 52KT 4200 7947

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Colbert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1144 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

PAZ010-311615-
Elk PA-
1144 AM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...A GUSTY SHOWER WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN ELK COUNTY THROUGH 1215 PM
EDT...

At 1143 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a gusty shower over
Marienville, moving northeast at 60 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph. Lightning is also possible.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Johnsonburg, Wilcox, James City and East Branch Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4160 7848 4160 7842 4135 7893 4137 7898
      4135 7902 4136 7904 4134 7909 4142 7909
      4143 7906 4145 7906 4145 7898 4144 7897
      4144 7896 4162 7895 4163 7849
TIME...MOT...LOC 1543Z 230DEG 51KT 4142 7905

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Colbert

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1205 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

PAZ005-311645-
McKean PA-
1205 PM EDT Thu Mar 31 2022

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MCKEAN COUNTY THROUGH
1245 PM EDT...

At 1205 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kane, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Kane, Port Allegany, Smethport, Rew, Coryville, Cyclone, Kinzua
Bridge State Park, Crosby, Mount Jewett, Eldred, Ceres and Bradford
Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 4199 7821 4185 7821 4163 7859 4163 7895
      4200 7843 4200 7820
TIME...MOT...LOC 1605Z 230DEG 46KT 4165 7879

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH

Colbert