Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1232 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 936 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Radar and surface observations indicate the surface low is
currently just south of Laredo. Showers and thunderstorms have
been ongoing during the evening hours with the heaviest activity
still confined to the coastal regions. A band of heavy rainfall
with some healthy instantaneous rain rates around 3"/hr has been
slowly moving up the northern Coastal Bend. We have been able to
avoid any additional flood advisories so far as it has been moving
at a steady pace.

Additional activity is expected to develop overnight as a plume of
higher instability (aided by a ~30 knot LLJ) nudges across the
Coastal Plains and Brush Country. The KCRP sounding this evening
reveals PWATs around 2.5" with a skinny CAPE profile. This will
help continue our threat of heavy rainfall during the overnight
hours. The Brush Country looks to be able to handle a fair amount
of rain as they haven't seen too much action today. However, any
training storms could produce rain rates around 3-4"/hr which may
lead to localized flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

I'm not sure how many of you gave your dog a bath, or washed your
cars, or whatever but good job! Of course, it might not be all of
those things, but rather the area of low pressure that has moved
inland this morning from the Gulf. Near maximum PWATs of around
2.5 inches have left us with some incredible rainfall totals, with
some areas already reaching around 6 inches of rain today across
the southern Coastal Bend/Coastal Plains. More rain is expected to
fall across South Texas tonight and Monday with the focus of the
rainfall shifting west as the low pressure moves west. 2-4 more
inches of rain, with locally higher amounts are expected across
the southern Coastal Bend to the Rio Grande Plains. Those across
the northern tier of counties will likely only get another 1-3
inches more of rain. Localized flash flooding will continue
overnight and, potentially, into Monday before the rain begins to
taper off.

Cloud cover Monday will keep our high temperatures quite a bit
lower than we are used to seeing. Not quite Sweater Weather, but
highs in the low 90s will certainly be a relief from the heat from
these past weeks.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday Night)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

Key messages:

 - Drier with slight rain/storm chances Tuesday and Wednesday. Rain
chances return Friday into weekend due to mid-level trough and
uncertainty regarding a mid-level feature.

 - Heat index values 105-110 return Tuesday through Friday.

 - Another potential mid-level low over Gulf to keep an eye on next
weekend.

Mid-level ridging replaces the mid-level low going into the long
term period with drier conditions in place through at least
Thursday. Moisture remains slightly enhanced with PWATs just above
1.75" Tuesday and Wednesday allowing for isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the morning over the waters, moving inland over the
Coastal Bend and Coastal Plains with the afternoon sea breeze. PWATs
then drop slightly below normal to around 1.5" around Thursday, only
including silent PoPs at this time.

Heading late into the work week, a couple mid to upper level lows
stretching from the Upper Midwest to the NE CONUS will bring down a
trough into Texas Thursday night into Friday that is also
accompanied by a weak surface boundary reflection. However, the
latest runs have most of the energy and surface boundary staying
north and east of our CWA. Considering the last forecast and
inconsistent runs, have kept slight chances to chances of showers
and thunderstorms Thursday night into Friday, with the greatest
focus over our northern counties.

Model discrepancies get more messy heading into the weekend. As the
trough moves eastward another tropical wave or mid-level low/trough
from the Bay of Campeche region moves northwestward through the
Gulf. The 0Z ECMWF had the mid-level low move over South Texas on
Sunday, very similar to today's event whereas the GFS kept the
feature well south of our area going into Mexico's coast. The latest
12Z ECMWF run has trended more towards the GFS with the mid-level
feature going into Mexico's coastline and therefore have slightly
reduced PoPs to 20-30%. This feature will be closely monitored in
future forecast packages.

Temperatures will be on the increase through Thursday with triple
digits potentially returning over the Brush Country on Thursday. A
couple degrees cooler heading into the weekend with the potential of
greater cloud and rain cover. Heat index values of 105 to 109 with a
few locations touching 110 will be possible during the afternoons
Tuesday through Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

Wet and stormy night is on tap for South Texas tonight as an area
of low pressure spins across the Southern Brush Country and into
Mexico by daybreak. Expect bands of showers and occasional
thunderstorms to spiral around the low resulting in MVFR/IVR
ceilings and reduced visibilities at LRD, COT and ALI terminals
due to heavy rain. Expect primarily MVFR conditions at CRP
overnight with occasional thunderstorms. VFR conditions can be
expected at VCT with convection remaining to the west of this
airport. Expect convection to persist across the Brush Country and
Rio Grande Plains through the day on Monday with MVFR ceilings
and reduced visibility in heavy rain. Expect improving conditions
at CRP and ALI terminals in the afternoon and the low moves
farther away from the region and drier air moves in.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

An area of low pressure that has moved onshore will continue to
produce scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms
through tonight. Southeast winds around 20 knots with higher gusts
are expected, with unpredictable and gusty winds possible in and
around thunderstorms. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through
10 PM this evening. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue Monday as lingering moisture persists. Weak to moderate
onshore flow will develop Monday and continue through late this
week, with daily slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
through Wednesday. More moderate flow develops Friday night and
continues through the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    88  78  94  78 /  50  20  20   0
Victoria          92  76  96  76 /  40  20  20   0
Laredo            87  76  94  77 /  80  40  20  10
Alice             90  74  95  75 /  70  20  20   0
Rockport          90  82  93  81 /  40  20  20  10
Cotulla           90  76  97  76 /  80  30  20  10
Kingsville        88  76  95  77 /  70  20  20   0
Navy Corpus       87  82  91  82 /  40  20  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

Grids...JM/75
DSS...TH/91
Radar...JP/84

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
515 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-151015-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-Jim Wells-
Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-
Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-
Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-
Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands-
515 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms today and tonight, with locally heavy
rainfall.

There is a Slight Risk excessive rainfall today over portions of the
southern Coastal Plains. Marginal Risk over much of the remainder of
South Texas.

Isolated flash flooding may occur, especially over of the southern
Coastal Plains today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Maximum Heat Index values 105 to 109 degrees expected Tuesday
through Saturday.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected Monday with
isolated thunderstorms possible Tuesday through Thursday. Scattered
thunderstorms will be possible again Friday and continuing into next
weekend.

There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall for the Rio Grande
Plains on Monday. The western Coastal Bend is in a Marginal Risk for
excessive rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275-151015-
Baffin Bay and Upper Laguna Madre-Corpus Christi and Nueces Bays-
Copano, Aransas, and Redfish Bays-
San Antonio, Mesquite, and Espiritu Santo Bays-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM-
515 AM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms today and tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Scattered thunderstorms expected Monday. Isolated thunderstorms possible
for the remainder of the week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

87/75

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
232 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0232 AM     FLASH FLOOD      5 SSE CORPUS CHRISTI    27.72N 97.38W
08/15/2022                   NUECES             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS FLOODING AT EVERHART AND MCARDLE.

&&

TWH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
251 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0249 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSW CORPUS CHRISTI    27.76N 97.41W
08/15/2022                   NUECES             TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EM REPORTS FLASH FLOODING AT TARLTON AND
            BLANCO COURTS.

&&

TWH