Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1255 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1037 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

Low pressure area continues to move west-northwest over Coahuila
in northeast Mexico to the southwest of Eagle Pass. Bands to the
east of the low continue to move northward across the Brush
Country. This will continue through early afternoon. With rainfall
amounts of 3-5 inches over the La Salle and McMullen Counties
along with the expectation of an additional 2-4 inches, added
these counties to the Flood Watch.

For the Coastal Bend, air mass continues to be very moist with PW
values up to 2.2 inches. With heating late this morning into the
afternoon, latest hi-res models show convection that could produce
locally heavy rain forming over regions that received heavy
rainfall over the last 24 hours. Will remove the coastal and
island portions of Nueces and Kleberg Counties from the Flood
Watch, expecting activity to be more inland through this afternoon.
Adjusted temperatures down especially over the Brush Country.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

...Flood Watch in Effect until 00z Today...

The vertically stacked low pressure system was centered just
southwest of Laredo at 08z with a moisture rich environment to the
east of this system across South Texas. PWs were >2.5" and the
KCRP 88D Radar showed several NW-SE oriented convective bands
setting up within the deep unidirectional flow over the region.
Flash Flood Guidance has lowered from yesterday rains and HREF 24
HR Ensemble QPF Prob Match Mean indicates 2-4" with isolated 5+"
are possible across the Southern Coastal Bend and Southern Brush
Country today, thus a Flood Watch has been issued. This watch may
need to be expanded to include the northern Brush Country a bit
later this morning if trends continue. The good news is that we
are starting to get some much needed rain in our watershed, at
least in the Nueces River! The low should finally exit the
region this evening with high pressure building over the region in
its wake.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 254 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

There will still be enough lingering moisture to generate
scattered coverage of sea breeze convection on Tuesday. Wednesday
should be considerably drier with the ridge directly overhead and
PWs below 1.7". The pattern change for later in the week is still
looking good as a broad trough is carved out over the eastern
CONUS with the trough axis becoming elongated over South Central
Texas by Thursday Night. This system will push an associated
frontal boundary into the area bringing another chance for rain on
Friday, although forcing is fairly weak. Meanwhile, all eye's
focus on the next tropical wave/inverted trough that GFS/EC bring
into the NW Gulf and into deep South Texas next weekend. This
system looks to be a bit farther south than the current system,
but should still bring an increasing chance for rain. Will
continue to monitor.

Heat Indices of 105-109 degrees will return on Tuesday and
persist through the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

IFR ceilings/vsbys will continue over the western Brush Country in
rain bands moving northward through late afternoon. Ceilings will
improve to MVFR late this afternoon with convection shifting west
of the Rio Grande by 00Z Tuesday. Scattered convection developing
over the inland Coastal Bend will provide MVFR ceilings/vsbys
until 22Z with activity diminishing after that. VFR conditions are
expected this evening as drier air moves into the region with the
low pressure system over northeast Mexico moving toward the Big
Bend. Patchy fog will be possible over the inland coastal plains
from 09Z-15Z with MVFR vsbys. Brief MVFR ceilings could occur over
the Brush Country from 10-15Z and over the Coastal Bend from
15-18Z Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 PM CDT Sun Aug 14 2022

An area of low pressure over the Rio Grande will continue to
produce scattered to numerous showers with embedded thunderstorms
through this morning. Gusty winds, elevated seas, and reduced
visibilities are possible with any passing shower or storm.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue through this
afternoon as lingering moisture persists. A moderate onshore flow
can be expected today. Rain chances continue on Tuesday, subside
Wednesday and then return again toward the end of the week as
upper level disturbance approaches the region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    89  78  91  77 /  40  10  20   0
Victoria          92  76  94  75 /  20  10  20   0
Laredo            86  77  95  77 /  90  40  20  10
Alice             88  74  95  75 /  70  10  30   0
Rockport          90  82  93  81 /  30  10  20   0
Cotulla           87  77  99  77 /  90  20  20   0
Kingsville        88  76  92  77 /  50  10  30   0
Navy Corpus       88  82  89  83 /  40  10  20   0

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ229-230-239>243.

GM...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...TMT
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...TMT/89

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
410 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-160915-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-Jim Wells-
Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas-
Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces-
Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-
Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands-
410 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Flood Watch is in effect for portions of the Coastal Bend and
Southern Brush Country through 7pm this evening. Scattered to
Numerous showers and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall.
Additional rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches with isolated amounts
of 5 inches or more possible, which may lead to Flash Flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Maximum Heat Index values of 105 to 109 degrees can be expected each
afternoon.

Isolated to Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms will be possible each
day this week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275-160915-
Baffin Bay and Upper Laguna Madre-Corpus Christi and Nueces Bays-
Copano, Aransas, and Redfish Bays-
San Antonio, Mesquite, and Espiritu Santo Bays-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM-
410 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gulf of Mexico.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected
today. Winds and seas will be higher near thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Isolated showers and thunderstorms can be expected each day this
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
817 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0708 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW ORVIL              27.59N 99.53W
08/15/2022                   WEBB               TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: RIVER/CREEK OVERFLOWING;
            CROPLAND/YARD/BASEMENT FLOODING.

0723 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE LAREDO             27.53N 99.47W
08/15/2022                   WEBB               TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: STREET/ROAD FLOODING;
            STREET/ROAD CLOSED; VEHICLES STRANDED.

0759 AM     FLASH FLOOD      4 NE LAREDO             27.57N 99.43W
08/15/2022                   WEBB               TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: STREET/ROAD FLOODING;
            STREET/ROAD CLOSED; VEHICLES STRANDED.

&&

EMF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
918 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

TXZ240-151445-
Duval TX-
918 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Duval
County through 945 AM CDT...

At 917 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles northwest of Realitos, or 16 miles west of Benavides, moving
north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tropical funnel clouds possible. Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Duval
County.

This includes US Highway 59 between mile markers 780 and 782.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 2755 9871 2780 9881 2781 9880 2781 9855
      2755 9862
TIME...MOT...LOC 1417Z 176DEG 17KT 2760 9867

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

FORINASH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
946 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

TXZ240-151515-
Duval TX-
946 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Duval
County through 1015 AM CDT...

At 945 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles southwest of Freer, moving north at 30 mph.

HAZARD...Tropical funnel clouds possible. Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Freer.

This includes US Highway 59 between mile markers 770 and 778.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2788 9881 2795 9880 2797 9862 2771 9865
      2770 9874
TIME...MOT...LOC 1445Z 172DEG 27KT 2775 9870

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

FORINASH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1108 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

TXZ240-151645-
Duval TX-
1108 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of west central Duval
County through 1145 AM CDT...

At 1108 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Realitos, or 11 miles north of Hebbronville, moving
north at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Tropical funnel clouds possible. Winds in excess of 30 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of west central Duval
County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2765 9880 2767 9880 2771 9864 2747 9864
      2745 9870
TIME...MOT...LOC 1608Z 163DEG 20KT 2748 9868

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH

FORINASH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1135 AM CDT MON AUG 15 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1131 AM     FLASH FLOOD      2 NNW LAREDO            27.57N 99.50W
08/15/2022                   WEBB               TX   PUBLIC

            REPORT FROM MPING: STREET/ROAD FLOODING;
            STREET/ROAD CLOSED; VEHICLES STRANDED.

&&

EMF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

TXZ229-230-151715-
McMullen TX-La Salle TX-
1141 AM CDT Mon Aug 15 2022

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern La
Salle and west central McMullen Counties through 1215 PM CDT...

At 1141 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Los Angeles, or 18 miles east of Cotulla, moving north at 45 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects.

Locations impacted include...
Zella, Fowlerton and Los Angeles.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 2864 9880 2833 9876 2832 9899 2865 9914
      2865 9880
TIME...MOT...LOC 1641Z 161DEG 41KT 2850 9894

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH

FORINASH