Gale Warning 2, NWS Buffalo, NY

700 
WHUS71 KBUF 091953
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
253 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

LOZ042>045-062>065-100400-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.220109T2000Z-220110T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
253 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet expected.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-100400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
253 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-100400-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
253 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Hitchcock

147 
WHUS71 KBUF 100031
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
731 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

LOZ042>045-062>065-100600-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220110T0600Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
731 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 40 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-100900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
731 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-100900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
731 PM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

834 
WHUS71 KBUF 100510
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1210 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

LOZ042-101315-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220110T0600Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
1210 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ062-100615-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220110T0600Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
1210 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds have dropped below gale criteria.

$$

LOZ043>045-063>065-101200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220110T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
1210 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 10 to 14 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from 
  Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-101315-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T1200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
1210 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-LOZ030-101315-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T0300Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
1210 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

984 
WHUS71 KBUF 100836
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
336 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

LOZ043>045-063>065-101200-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220110T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
336 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING...

* WHAT...West winds to 35 knots and waves 12 to 16 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore and open waters of Lake Ontario from 
  Hamlin Beach to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST this morning.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ040-041-101645-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
336 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-101645-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220110T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
336 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-101645-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T0600Z/
Lower Niagara River-
336 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-101645-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
336 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 8 to 11 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

716 
WHUS71 KBUF 101122
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
622 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

LOZ043-044-101930-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220110T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T1200Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
622 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 11 to 15 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 7 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-101930-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220110T1200Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
622 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST TUESDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Northwest winds to 30 knots and waves 10 to 13 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ063>065-101230-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0002.000000T0000Z-220110T1200Z/
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
622 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

Winds have dropped below gale criteria.

$$

LEZ040-041-101930-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T0900Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
622 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-101930-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220110T2100Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
622 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EST this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-101930-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
622 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-101930-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-220111T0600Z/
Lower Niagara River-
622 AM EST Mon Jan 10 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST
TUESDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 1 AM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
959 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
A wintry mix will continue today east of Lake Ontario, with periods
of rain elsewhere as temperatures briefly warm. A strong cold front
will then cross the region this afternoon with precipitation
changing back over to snow late today. Tonight, accumulating lake
snows east and southeast of the lakes lasting through Monday night,
with the highest impacts focused primarily downwind of Lake Ontario.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Surface temperatures have been above freezing for a few hours now
across the western Southern Tier, with any remaining freezing rain
changing over to rain. Temperatures are still close to freezing in a
few locations across Wayne and Oswego counties, where pockets of
freezing rain may persist through late morning. The North Country is
mainly a mix of rain and freezing rain now, but will start to change
back to snow across higher terrain early to mid afternoon as
temperatures aloft begin to cool and eliminate the warm nose aloft.

A potent cold front will then sweeps across the Lower Lakes this
afternoon. Any remaining precipitation will then change back over to
snow. The best chance to see any additional accumulating snows will
likely be confined to east of Lake Ontario. Nothing major but it
wouldn't be out of the question to squeak out an additional inch or
so across the higher terrain, especially the Tug Hill. Otherwise,
relatively mild day anticipated ahead of the cold front. Highs will
top out in the 30s to low 40s along the lake plains. It will be
quite windy today into this evening, with winds gusting to 30-40
mph.

A much colder air mass then wraps in behind the cold front under
WNW'erly flow this evening with 850 hPa falling to -18C/-19C by
sunrise Monday. While over lake instability will be plenty to
support lake snows ESE of the lakes, available synoptic moisture
will be lacking for this event for Lake Erie. Not only will there be
limited synoptic moisture, the shorter fetch under W to NW flow will
likely keep accumulations in check. This is not to say that there
won't be some accumulating snows overnight.

Off Lake Ontario, a much different story will unfold. Upstream
priming and the use of the longer fetch will all come into play with
significant accumulating snows ESE of the lake. BUFKIT profile show
well aligned 270-280 flow with equilibrium levels climbing to
above 12K feet by Monday morning and moisture extending well through
the DGZ. Per local research, although it appears limited it's
still quite possibly that we could see some embedded thunder
within the most intense portion of the band. Have added a
mention of this along with blowing snow as winds will be quite
gusty along the edges of the band.

Lows overnight will primarily be found in the low to mid teens by
sunrise Monday. Factor in the wind and it will feel more like single
digits to below zero.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW EAST OF LAKE ONTARIO...

Our main concern for the short term period is the potential for
heavy lake effect snow, especially east of Lake Ontario. A deep
longwave trough will carve out in eastern North America Monday
through Tuesday, with several embedded shortwaves moving across
Ontario and Quebec. The cold air mass will be plenty cold enough to
support lake effect snow.

The setup is much more favorable off Lake Ontario, with deeper
moisture, more synoptic scale support, and a better opportunity for
upstream lake connections. Off Lake Erie, lower inversion heights,
less synoptic scale moisture, and less chance of upstream lake
connections will result in a more marginal setup for heavy snow.

Winds will be gusty at times, especially downwind of the lakes. At
these locations gusts of 35-40 mph at times may result in areas of
blowing snow where bands persist.

Off Lake Ontario...

No changes to the Lake Effect snow warning where about two feet of
snow is expected in most persistent bands. Went with an advisory for
Jefferson county since it appears the heavy snow band will only
briefly clip far southern portions of the county with amounts below
warning criteria. Also extended the Winter Weather Advisory for
Northern Cayuga since heavy snow will occasionally meander across
it. For the advisories expecting 24+ hour storm totals of 6 to 10
inches in most persistent snows.

Expect a band of heavy lake effect snow to be focused on northern
Oswego County and southern Lewis county Monday morning. The snows
furthest northward extend should be around mid-day Monday, then the
band will drop southward Monday afternoon when winds shift to the
northwest with the passage of a shortwave and arctic frontal
boundary. Favor RGEM/NAM guidance for band placement with some
mesoscale guidance appearing unrealistically south with the band given
the westerly flow. Ideal lake induced instability and favorable
cloud microphysics will support 3"+/hr snowfall rates in the heart
of this band. There may be some thunder/lightning as well.

A sharp arctic front will then cross Lake Ontario early Monday
evening, likely capturing the east-west oriented lake effect band
over the lake and pushing it onshore along the entire south shore,
moving south to about the NY Thruway Monday evening before breaking
apart into multiple bands. This will likely produce a quick burst of
heavy snow for areas between the south shore of Lake Ontario and NY
Thruway.

Later Monday night through Tuesday northwest flow will support a
spay of weaker multiple bands south/southeast of Lake Ontario across
much of Western and Central NY. Most of this will be on the light
side, although a Georgian Bay connection may bring enhanced snow to
areas west of Rochester and east of Buffalo for awhile Monday night.
Another more dominant band, supported by modulations in the low
level flow near Irondequoit Bay (convergence driven by concave
shoreline) may support a more concentrated band of snow from the
eastern Rochester suburbs into western Wayne County. Finally,
mesoscale model guidance suggests an enhanced band of convergence
near Mexico Bay in central Oswego County. The multiple bands will
persist through Tuesday morning before slowly diminishing in the
afternoon and evening as high pressure crosses Lake Ontario.

Snow accumulations will vary from Niagara to Wayne counties, with
northwest flow events among the most difficult to forecast. Heaviest
snow should be with the arctic front Monday evening. In general
expecting totals in the 3-6 inch range, with locally higher amounts
possible. Advisories might be needed south of Lake Ontario Monday
night through Tuesday.

Off Lake Erie...

Issued a Winter Storm Watch for lake effect snow in Chautauqua
county Monday through Tuesday morning.

The less favorable synoptic scale support and moisture, shorter
fetch, and less chance for upstream connections will limit the
potential for truly heavy lake effect snow, but amounts will still
add up over several days. It appears the most persistent snows will
be Monday afternoon through Tuesday morning when a shortwave
provides synoptic moisture.

Mesoscale guidance shows a potential Lake Huron connection. This
potential combined with the likelihood of snow ratios of 20:1 or
better pushed us to issue a Watch for Chautauqua county. If this
band keeps moving, watch/warning criteria snow is less likely off
Lake Erie. Advisory amounts in the 6-10 inch range are also possible
in Cattaraugus and across the Boston Hills in southern Erie county.

Finally, the coldest airmass of the season will support frigid wind
chills Monday night into Tuesday. The coldest air will cross the
North Country with less lake modification, and this area may see
wind chills of colder than -25F at times. Elsewhere, wind chills may
run -10F to -15F.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A ridge of high pressure along the east coast will provide a dry
start for the day Wednesday, with a southwesterly return flow
also bringing warmer weather.

A weak cold front will then move through Wednesday night. Model
guidance is in poor agreement on how cold aloft it will get behind
the front, with model consensus dropping 850mb temperatures down to
around -10c. This is marginally cold enough for a lake response,
with the best chance for any lake effect snow east of Lake Ontario
where it will be slightly cooler aloft. The weak front and
associated surface trough only bringing a small chance of rain or
snow showers to the rest of the area with its passage Wednesday
night and Thursday. Any snow accumulations will be minor.

A weak ridge is then forecast to move across the region Thursday
night and Friday which would result in dry weather. Low pressure
will approach from the midwest Friday night with increasing chances
for some snow from this system through Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIFR-IFR CIGS will continue across the higher terrain of the S. Tier
and east of Lake Ontario today. Elsewhere, it will remain mainly
MVFR. There will also be a wintry mix of pcpn of freezing rain,
sleet, and snow across the North Country today. Elsewhere, rain
through early afternoon will start to change back to snow late today
following the passage of a strong cold front.

Tonight, lake snows develop in the wake of the cold front east and
southeast of both lakes. This will bring localized IFR conditions
with in theses areas. Elsewhere, MVFR-VFR will be found across
terminals.

Outlook...

Monday and Tuesday...Local IFR within lake effect snow east of the
Lakes, otherwise MVFR-VFR.
Wednesday and Thursday...Mainly VFR with a chance of snow showers.

&&

.MARINE...
A strong cold front will approach, then cross the eastern Great
Lakes this afternoon, this will result in high end Small Craft
Advisories. There is even the possibility that winds could
occasionally gust to gales on Lake Ontario as the front sweeps
through the region. Will need to keep a close eye on this through
this evening. With the passage of the front, southwesterly winds
veer to west then northwest and will remain elevated with Small
Craft headlines through Tuesday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for NYZ007.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for NYZ006-
     008.
     Lake Effect Snow Warning from 7 PM this evening to 1 AM EST
     Tuesday for NYZ006-008.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ005.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ004.
     Winter Storm Watch from Monday morning through Tuesday morning
     for NYZ019.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST Monday for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Tuesday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Tuesday for LOZ042-045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR/Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...AR/Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...Apffel/Hitchcock
LONG TERM...Apffel
AVIATION...AR/Hitchcock
MARINE...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
951 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

NYZ001-002-011-013-101500-
Niagara-Orleans-Genesee-Livingston-
951 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Lake effect snow will move south off Lake Ontario Monday evening and
produce a quick burst of heavy snow. This will be followed by some
additional lake effect snow overnight Monday night. Moderate
accumulations are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-101500-
Northern Erie-
951 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ012-020-085-101500-
Wyoming-Cattaraugus-Southern Erie-
951 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Accumulating lake effect snow is expected Monday through Tuesday
morning, with moderate accumulations possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ019-101500-
Chautauqua-
951 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Storm Watch.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ021-101500-
Allegany-
951 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-101500-
Wayne-
951 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ003-014-101500-
Monroe-Ontario-
951 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Lake effect snow will move south off Lake Ontario Monday evening and
produce a quick burst of heavy snow. This will be followed by some
additional lake effect snow overnight Monday night through Tuesday.
Moderate accumulations are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-101500-
Northern Cayuga-
951 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-008-101500-
Oswego-Lewis-
951 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM
EST TUESDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.
   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lake Effect Snow Warning.

Wind chills of colder than 25 below zero are possible Monday night
and Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-101500-
Jefferson-
951 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Winter Weather Advisory.

Wind chills of colder than 25 below zero are possible Monday night
through Tuesday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-040-041-LOZ030-042>045-062>065-101500-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lower Niagara River-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
951 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-024-101500-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
951 AM EST Sun Jan 9 2022

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the New York waters of the
Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
940 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0354 AM     FREEZING RAIN    1 NW DANSVILLE          42.57N 77.71W
01/09/2022  E0.02 INCH       LIVINGSTON         NY   ASOS

0656 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 SE DEXTER             43.99N 76.02W
01/09/2022  E0.02 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   ASOS

0656 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 WSW WELLSVILLE        42.11N 77.99W
01/09/2022  E0.20 INCH       ALLEGANY           NY   ASOS

0700 AM     FREEZING RAIN    CHAUMONT                44.07N 76.13W
01/09/2022  M0.06 INCH       JEFFERSON          NY   PUBLIC

0700 AM     FREEZING RAIN    JAMESTOWN               42.10N 79.24W
01/09/2022  E0.02 INCH       CHAUTAUQUA         NY   PUBLIC

0818 AM     FREEZING RAIN    3 NNE FULTON            43.35N 76.39W
01/09/2022  E0.03 INCH       OSWEGO             NY   ASOS

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
957 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 NNE WHITESVILLE       42.06N 77.76W
01/09/2022  M0.25 INCH       ALLEGANY           NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1007 AM EST SUN JAN 9 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 AM     FREEZING RAIN    2 N RICHLAND            43.59N 76.05W
01/09/2022  M0.06 INCH       OSWEGO             NY   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&