Storm Warning 93, NWS Anchorage, AK

439 
FZAK52 PAFC 161141
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170015-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 941 mb low 260 nm north of Shemya weakens to 948 mb as it moves
to 80 nm southwest of St. Lawrence Island by Fri evening. The low 
then moves to 40nm N of St. Lawrence Island at 955 mb Sat 
morning. This low continues to weaken to 980 mb as it enters the 
southern Chukchi Sea through Sun morning. A North Pacific low 
moves to 130 nm south of Dutch Harbor at 1014 mb Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-170015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170015-
Bristol Bay-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt except SW 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft except 19 ft from Port Moller E.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 25 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170015-
Unalaska Bay-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt early. Seas 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt early. Seas 32 ft subsiding 
to 24 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170015-
Adak to Kiska-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 60 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
33 ft subsiding to 24 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170015-
Kiska to Attu-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 55 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 32
ft subsiding to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt increasing to 60 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
75 kt in the afternoon. Seas 25 ft building to 39 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
38 ft subsiding to 30 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
24 ft subsiding to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas
11 ft building to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt. Gust to 70 kt near Nunivak Island. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt increasing to 55 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
70 kt in the afternoon. Seas 13 ft building to 28 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 60 kt diminishing to 50 kt after midnight. Gusts to
75 kt in the evening. Seas 37 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-170015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
341 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 60 kt. Seas 25 ft building to 40 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 65 kt diminishing to
55 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 55 kt
diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 40 ft subsiding to 33 ft
after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 45 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

817 
FZAK52 PAFC 161908 CCA
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170015-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 941 mb low 260 nm north of Shemya weakens to 948 mb as it moves
to 80 nm southwest of St. Lawrence Island by Fri evening. The low 
then moves to 40nm N of St. Lawrence Island at 955 mb Sat 
morning. This low continues to weaken to 980 mb as it enters the 
southern Chukchi Sea through Sun morning. A North Pacific low 
moves to 130 nm south of Dutch Harbor at 1014 mb Sun morning.

$$

PKZ150-170015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170015-
Bristol Bay-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ165-170015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt except SW 30 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 25 ft except 19 ft from Port Moller E.
.SAT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft building to 25 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170015-
Unalaska Bay-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 25 kt becoming SW 15 in the afternoon. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 10 kt in the morning becoming variable less than
10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind less than 10 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 kt. Gusts to 65 kt early. Seas 28 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 kt diminishing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt early. Seas 32 ft subsiding 
to 24 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...W wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170015-
Adak to Kiska-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 60 kt diminishing to 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
33 ft subsiding to 24 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170015-
Kiska to Attu-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 55 kt diminishing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 32
ft subsiding to 23 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt after midnight. Seas
19 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 45 kt increasing to 60 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
75 kt in the afternoon. Seas 25 ft building to 39 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas
38 ft subsiding to 30 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas
24 ft subsiding to 18 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 35 kt increasing to 50 kt in the afternoon, except
increasing to 65 kt near Nunivak Island. Seas 11 ft building to 
18 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 55 kt, except SW 65 kt near Nunivak Island
during the evening. Seas 26 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ181-170015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 45 kt increasing to 65 kt in the afternoon. Seas 
13 ft building to 28 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...S wind 65 kt diminishing to SW 50 kt after midnight. 
Gusts to 75 kt in the evening. Seas 37 ft. Widespread rain 
showers.
.SAT...SW wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ185-170015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
1108 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 60 kt. Seas 25 ft building to 40 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 65 kt diminishing to
55 kt after midnight. W of Saint Matthew Island, W wind 55 kt
diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Seas 40 ft subsiding to 33 ft
after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...E of Saint Matthew Island, SW wind 45 kt. W of Saint
Matthew Island, W wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. 
Seas 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...NW wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
551 AM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A weak upper level low over the Northern Alaska Range is
currently drifting northeastward while continuing to weaken. A
weak shortwave noted on water vapor imagery, in association with
this upper low, digs southward over the Copper River Basin
providing cloud cover. A second, more strong upper level low,
located between St. Matthew Island an St. Lawrence Island, is
moving northeastward across the north central Bering Sea towards
the Seward Peninsula. The jetstream currently extends
northeastward from the subtropical Pacific to over the western and
central Aleutian Islands, then curves southeastward to over the
Gulf and then northeastward to over Southeast Alaska. Further to
the southwest, around 46N 167E, resides the extratropical
remnants of Typhoon Merbok, which will become the dominant weather
player starting later today.

Closer to the surface, Bethel and King Salmon radars both show
areas rain moving inland over southwest Alaska in association
with a front moving ashore from the low in the north-central
Bering. Elsewhere across the southcentral part of the state,
conditions remain mostly quiet with a few scattered showers around
Prince William Sound and through Kamishak Gap.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models remain in good overall agreement with respect to the
placement and intensity with synoptic scale features in the short
term. Of particular note, there is great consistency with how
guidance is handling the extratropical transition of Typhoon
Merbok as well as its track. Global models (00z GFS/EURO/GEM/NAM)
have converged on tracking this hurricane-force low to the North
Pacific to the Southwestern Bering Sea by tomorrow afternoon and
to around St. Lawrence Island by Friday evening. While forecast
confidence is relatively high, pinpointing exact locations and
timing of shortwaves spiraling off of the system and impacting the
southwest part of the state will be the challenge. As newer
guidance becomes available, anticipate updates to the forecast for
the Bering low.

For Southcentral Alaska, models generally agree and forecast
confidence is above average on a strong shortwave moving through
the area tomorrow which will bring a good shot at widespread rain
to the whole area, including Anchorage. The challenge here will
be nailing down exactly how much rain could fall. Indications are
that the upper Susitna Valley and Prince William Sound areas will
see the most precipitation. Models then bring ridging into the
area for Friday after the shortwave departs to the east. Friday
looks to possibly be a nice day around Southcentral before
guidance reintroduces broad and moist southwesterly upper flow for
Saturday and the potential for more precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions look to persist. Turnagain Arm winds are
expected to bend into the terminal this morning and strengthen
into the afternoon hours as an upper level wave moves through. As
this wave moves through, there is a chance for MVFR ceilings and
visibilities in association with precipitation around the area
late tomorrow morning in to the afternoon, and especially with any
heavier showers that come through. However, ceilings and
visibilities should again remain predominantly VFR due to the
southeast flow. After the wave passes tomorrow evening, the
pressure gradient will be realigned such that surface flow will be
light from the northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 2: Today
through Saturday morning)...

A transient ridge will move across Southcentral this morning
bringing some sunny breaks early on. However, another frontal
system supported by a fairly strong shortwave will spread across
the area this afternoon with rain spreading west to east through
tonight. Southerly gap winds will increase this afternoon for
Turnagain Arm bending into west Anchorage. The Knik and Copper
River valley winds will also be gusty this afternoon and evening
as the pressure gradient tighten ups. This system will move
southeast into the northeastern Gulf Friday morning. Friday looks
to be a nice end to the work week for most as a ridge moves into
Southcentral from western Alaska creating sunny and dry
conditions. But this will quickly end as another front moves into
Kodiak Island Friday and moves north into Southcentral Friday
evening bringing showers to the area. This front will weaken as it
encounters a ridge across the area, so rain will taper off Friday
night. Saturday morning another quick moving shortwave will move
towards Southcentral with another round of rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Sunday)...

A front associated with an occluded low near Hooper Bay this
morning is rapidly moving east across the region with widespread
shower activity filling in behind it. Expect a slow clearing
behind the front through the evening hours today. Then, the warm
front associated with a strong low in the western Bering will move
through the entire region early Friday morning, with strong
southwesterly winds following the precipitation. Bristol Bay and
the Middle Kuskokwim Valley will be largely spared from the winds
with gusts in the 35 to 45 mph range along the northern Bristol
Bay coast as well as the Aniak area. A High Wind Warning is now in
effect for the Kuskokwim Delta from Friday afternoon to Saturday
morning. Sustained winds along the coast are expected to be in the
45 to 60 mph range with gusts to 80 mph in areas like Nunivak
Island, Toksook Bay and Kipnuk. Farther inland areas like Bethel
will still have strong winds, with gusts up to 60 mph.

The other side of the coin with this storm is the surge expected
along the coast. A Coastal Flood Watch remains in effect from
Friday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. Surge and water
levels are expected to rise 4 to 7 ft above the normal highest
tide line. This may cause low lying areas to flood. In addition to
the surge, rivers may rise due to lack of drainage capability
along the coast. If you're near a coastal river, watch for rapid
rises in water levels. Winds and storm surge will begin to
diminish late Saturday afternoon as the storm moves north of the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Sunday)...

The now extra-tropical remnants of Typhoon Merbok will begin to
impact the central and western Aleutians this afternoon with high
winds and rain. The storm center is expected to cross the Chain
just to the east of Shemya around 6pm this evening. The backside
of the low will contain the strongest winds as cold air wraps into
the low. Pressure rises on the backside of the low will also lead
to strong isallobaric winds, particularly over the Western
Aleutians near Shemya where gusts between 80 and 90 mph are
likely. Adak will likely get in on the strong winds as well with a
brief period of gusts between 70 and 80 mph around midnight, but
overall the strongest winds will stay over the Rat Islands.

On Friday the impacts from the low will begin to shift into the
Central and Western Bering, where hurricane force winds are
expected to persist through the evening hours. A High Wind Warning
is now in effect for the Pribilof Islands from 10 AM Friday to
1AM Saturday. Winds will peak between between noon and 4pm when
gusts to 90 mph are likely, particularly over St. Paul. Winds
will then slowly diminish through Saturday morning with a return
to calmer conditions on Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...

Typhoon Merbok remains as the main issue for the latter part of
this week. It will weaken under typhoon force before it gets to
the Bering Sea, but will rapidly re-intensify and go through the
extra-tropical transition as it ingests cold air from eastern
Russia tonight. There is still some minor uncertainty as to the
exact track and strength of this storm as it moves through the
Bering, however the center of the low should pass over Shemya
Thursday afternoon. It will then track from the Western Bering
Sea to the vicinity of Norton Sound on Saturday. Expect widespread
storm force winds across the Bering with areas of Hurricane Force
winds. The hurricane force winds are most likely from the Western
Aleutians to the Central Bering Sea between Thursday night and
Friday night. Seas are also expected to build rapidly with
widespread 30 to 40 ft seas across the Bering with 40 to 55 ft
seas associated with the strongest winds. This will be a major
Bering Sea Storm and mariners are encouraged begin preparing for
it now.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Unsettled conditions expected across Southern Alaska through the
extended period, with brief reprieves provided by weak transient
ridging. Several bouts of intense winds and rainfall expected for
both Southwestern Alaska and Southcentral.

By Saturday evening, the intensity of Typhoon Merbok remnants in
the Eastern Bering will have begun to wane, however will still be
producing strong winds blowing into the southwest Alaska
coastline. The concern of heavy winds and rainfall associated with
this low begins to diminish into Sunday evening. Model
discrepancies have eased as the models have come more into line,
increasing our confidence with shorter range products as well as
into the extended period. The Canadian model remaining an outlier
regarding the evolution of Merbok, however its solution is
approaching that of the GFS, NAM, and Euro solutions. Wednesday
12Z Canadian and Euro models advance a new north Pacific low
across the Eastern Aleutians into the Bristol Bay area Monday
morning. The GFS solution holds the advancement of the new system,
crossing the Aleutians Tuesday morning, with a focus of elevated
winds through the gaps and passes, as well as up Kamishak Gap into
the Greater Bristol Bay area. Additionally, a low forming off of
the Kamchatka Peninsula and, with moderate model uncertainty, will
deepen and approach the western Aleutians by Tuesday morning.
Today's 12Z GFS solution suggests a leading front and the low
itself sweeping across the Aleutian Chain. Meanwhile, the 12Z
Canadian and Euro suggest the low lingering in the Central Bering
providing strong winds and precipitation throughout the region
through next week.

From Sunday morning, a respite in precipitation for Southcentral
is expected to persist through Monday afternoon. With some
discrepancies, guidance then suggests the introduction and
intensification of a North Pacific low south of the Alaska
Peninsula. Given the aforementioned model uncertainty it is
possible there will be a revitalization of rainy conditions in
Southcentral. This system will provide heavy precipitation across
the Southcentral coastline and eventually moves inland.
Precipitation associated with this system is expected to persist
into Wednesday. In the GFS solution as the system approaches
Kodiak Island, southeasterly flow promotes the development of
Barrier jet winds along the northern Gulf coast including Prince
William Sound Tuesday morning. Windy and rainy conditions
currently are expected to continue into Wednesday in
Southcentral.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 155 187 191 195.
         Coastal Flood Watch 155.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 411-413 185 178 177.
         Storm Warning 414 181 179 176 175.
         Gale Warning 180 172-174 170 165 155.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DAN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CJ
MARINE/LONG TERM...CL