Storm Warning 85, NWS Anchorage, AK

929 
FZAK62 PAFC 151921 CCA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1121 AM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

UPDATE: Waves increased to reflect most recent forecast.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-160145-
1121 AM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 983 mb at 62N 169W weakens to 986 mb as it moves inland across 
western Alaska through Thu morning. A 951 mb low moves to 51N 174E
Thu afternoon, and deepens to 944 mb at 57N 177E Fri morning. The low
then moves to 64N 171W at 958 mb Sat morning. 

$$

PKZ411-160145-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
1121 AM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 to 30 kt becoming E 30 to 45 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E of 176E, E wind 45 to 60 kt becoming SW 50 to 65 kt 
after midnight. Gusts to 85 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft building to 30 to
45 ft after midnight. W of 176E, NW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 10 to 
25 ft. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 22 to 45 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ412-160145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
1121 AM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 10 to 25 kt becoming SE 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft building to 20 to 35 ft after midnight.
Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 55 to 70 kt. Seas 37 to 52 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt. Seas 27 to 42 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-160145-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
1121 AM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E wind up to 20 kt becoming S 25 to 40 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 7 to 11 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...S wind 45 to 60 kt increasing to 55 to 70 kt after
midnight. Gusts to 85 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft building to 30 to 45 
ft after midnight. E of 175W, seas 12 to 20 ft building to 20 to
30 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 55 to 70 kt diminishing to 45 to 60 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 35 to 50 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-160145-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
1121 AM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft building to 9 to
17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 80 kts. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 30 to 45
ft in the afternoon. E of 168W, seas 15 to 25 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 21 to 36 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.SUN...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

769 
FZAK62 PAFC 152345
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161315-
345 PM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

The Extra-tropical Storm Merbok at 952 mb near 51N 173E moves to 
58N 179W, intensifying to 940 mb for Midday Friday. This storm low
continues into the Southern Chukchi Sea weakening to 968 mb by 
Sat afternoon. Its front moves across the Bering through Sat 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-161315-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
345 PM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E of 176E, E wind 45 to 60 kt becoming SW 55 to 70 kt 
after midnight. Gusts to 85 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft building to 30 to 45
ft after midnight. W of 176E, NW wind 45 to 60 kt. Seas 10 to 25 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...W wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 30 to 45 ft subsiding to 20 to 35 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
345 PM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 to 45 kt becoming S 45 to 60 kt after
midnight. Seas 6 to 11 ft building to 20 to 35 ft after midnight. 
Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 55 to 70 kt. Seas 37 to 52 ft. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 35 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 35 to 50 ft subsiding to 22 to 33 ft after midnight. 
Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161315-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
345 PM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 45 to 60 kt increasing to 55 to 70 kt after
midnight. Gusts to 85 kt. Seas 15 to 30 ft building to 30 to 45 ft 
after midnight. E of 175W, seas 12 to 20 ft building to 20 to 30 ft
after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 55 to 70 kt diminishing to 45 to 60 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 35 to 50 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 35 to 45 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 18 to 33 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161315-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
345 PM AKDT Thu Sep 15 2022

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft building to 9 to
17 ft after midnight.
.FRI...SW wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 80 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft building to 30 to 45 ft 
in the afternoon. E of 168W, seas 15 to 25 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...SW wind 40 to 55 kt. Seas 30 to 45 ft diminishing to 21
to 36 ft after midnight.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 14 to 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.

$$

148 
FZAK62 PAFC 161129
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
329 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170100-
329 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 941 mb low at 57N 177E weakens to 948 mb as it moves to 63N 
173W by Fri evening. The low then moves to 64N 171W at 955 mb Sat
morning. This low continues to weaken to 980 mb as it enters the 
southern Chukchi Sea through Sun morning. A North Pacific low 
moves to 52N 166W at 1014 mb Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
329 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 80 kt in the morning. Seas 20 to 48 ft subsiding
to 22 to 34 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
329 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 55 to 70 kt. Seas 34 to 54 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 35 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 29 to 48 ft subsiding to 22 to 33 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
329 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 to 70 kt. Gusts to 85 kt. Seas 30 to 52 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
329 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 45 to 65 kt in the 
afternoon. Gusts to 80 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft building to 20 to 45 ft 
in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 to 60 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 24 to 39 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

303 
FZAK62 PAFC 161926 CCA
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
1126 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170100-
1126 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 941 mb low at 57N 177E weakens to 948 mb as it moves to 63N 
173W by Fri evening. The low then moves to 64N 171W at 955 mb Sat
morning. This low continues to weaken to 980 mb as it enters the 
southern Chukchi Sea through Sun morning. A North Pacific low 
moves to 52N 166W at 1014 mb Sun morning.

$$

PKZ411-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
1126 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 40 to 55 kt in the
afternoon. Gusts to 80 kt in the morning. Seas 20 to 48 ft subsiding
to 22 to 34 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt after
midnight. Seas 16 to 26 ft. Rain.
.SAT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
1126 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 55 to 70 kt. Seas 34 to 54 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 50 to 65 kt diminishing to 35 to 45 kt after
midnight. Seas 29 to 48 ft subsiding to 22 to 33 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...SW wind 30 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 35 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 15 to 26 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
1126 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 50 to 70 kt. Gusts to 85 kt. Seas 30 to 52 ft.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 35 to 50 kt diminishing to 25 to 40 kt after
midnight. Seas 19 to 34 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170100-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
1126 AM AKDT Fri Sep 16 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 30 to 45 kt increasing to 45 to 65 kt in the 
afternoon. Gusts to 80 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft building to 20 to 45 ft 
in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SW wind 45 to 65 kt diminishing to 30 to 45 kt after 
midnight. Seas 24 to 39 ft.
.SAT...SW wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 27 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.SUN...SW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.MON...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...W wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
742 PM AKDT Wed Sep 14 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A weak upper level low over Southcentral Alaska is currently
moving northeastward. A second upper level low is moving
northeastward across the north central Bering Sea. The jetstream
currently extends northeastward from the subtropical Pacific to
over the western and central Aleutian Islands, then curves
southeastward to over the Gulf and then northeastward to over
Southeast Alaska.

Closer to the surface, radar imagery shows showers slowly moving
northeastward from the northern Gulf of Alaska into Prince William
Sound. A second area of showers are moving southeastward across
the northern Alaska Peninsula. Lastly, a third area of showers is
moving northeastward across the Kuskokwim Delta into the lower
Kuskokwim Valley.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Forecast confidence remains above average with respect to the
placement and intensity of synoptic scale features. There is a
fairly high degree of consistency in the extratropical transition
of Merbok as well as the track of Merbok after it makes the
extratropical transition and enters the Bering Sea. As newer model
data becomes available anticipate updates to the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions will persist for this TAF package. Scattered
low clouds between 500-1000ft are possible between 15th/12z and
15th/20z. A weak Turnagain Arm wind is likely to develop after
15th/20z.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through
3: Tonight through Saturday)...

The majority of the very active conditions courtesy of a pair of
powerful lows crossing the Bering Sea will remain confined to
western parts of the state during the next few days, but some
minor impacts to sensible conditions across Southcentral will
still be felt. In the near term through early Thursday, a
sprawling upper trough with several small embedded waves will
finally begin to accelerate east towards the AlCan border and AK
Panhandle region. Pockets of showers will continue to bubble up
this evening into tonight under the trough axis as it shifts east,
particularly out over the Gulf where a relatively warm sea
surface contrasts with cool air aloft yields a weakly unstable
profile. Otherwise, areas of clearing and mostly calm winds ahead
of a passing, weak upper ridge will keep the threat around for
patchy fog development through the early morning, namely for lower
elevations around Cook Inlet and the Copper River Basin.

For the rest of the day Thursday, a front attendant to the first
low moving inland over Southwest will march across the outlook
area from west to east as it begins to shear apart over higher
terrain. Increasing cloud cover and soon to follow light to
moderate, steady rainfall will advance across Southcentral along
the front, first reaching Kodiak Island early Thursday and
subsequently moving up into the Kenai Peninsula and Mat-Su Valleys
by the afternoon. Expect southeast gap winds to spike up notably
in intensity ahead of the front as well, with gusty winds reaching
into the Anchorage and Palmer areas Thursday afternoon and
evening from the Turnagain arm and Knik River Valley
respectively. In addition, the low moving over Southwest will
become an open wave trough and push into western portions of
Southcentral by late in the day, providing continued lift and
forcing that will effectively extend the rainfall event well into
Thursday overnight.

Moving into Friday, it looks like another break in the rain will
materialize as a much stronger ridge builds into the southern
mainland out ahead of the by then extratropical remnants of
Typhoon Merbok roaring across the Bering. The transition of this
system into a cold-core low will of course include the
development of attendant frontal boundaries, including a
warm/occluding front that will make a run at crossing the Alaska
Peninsula and Kodiak Island as is heads generally northeast on
Friday. There is some lingering uncertainty regarding how far
north the front will get before it begins to fall apart, but the
associated rainfall will likely get at least as far as the western
Susitna Valley and western Kenai Peninsula by Friday afternoon.
What's left of the front will be shunted farther northeast towards
the Chugach and Talkeetna Mountains through Saturday morning,
potentially sending another quick round of rain through the
Anchorage vicinity along with most of the Prince William Sound and
Mat-Su Valleys. Deep, southwesterly flow developing between
Merbok and the upper ridge sliding east should favor heavier rain
(and snow near ridges/peaks) where enhanced by upslope flow over
the Talkeetna and Chugach Mountains, including the Hatcher Pass
vicinity through Saturday afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Saturday)...

With the exception of a few lingering showers, most of the region
saw a brief break of drier weather under a weak ridge of high
pressure. An upper trough and surface low pressure setting up
over the northern Bering Sea will advance a front eastward toward
western Alaska. Along and ahead of the front, steadier widespread
rain with southerly winds arrives this evening and continues
through the day Thursday. Daytime highs will mostly be in the mid
50s and overnight lows in the low 40s under cloudy skies. The
front exits the area by late Thursday night with decreasing rain
coverage and diminishing winds.

The next weather maker is associated with a potent storm system,
the extra- tropical remnants of Typhoon Merbok. This system is
expected to move into the northern Bering Sea late Friday into
Saturday. In addition to moderate to heavy rain, southwest winds
are expected to increase by late morning Friday and continue
through Saturday morning. The combination of strong winds and
fetch will also produce a storm surge along the coast, leading to
the potential for coastal erosion and flooding along the Kuskokwim
Delta coast. Therefore, a High Wind Watch and Coastal Flood Watch
has been issued from Friday afternoon through Saturday morning.
The winds should begin to slowly diminish through Saturday night
as the surface low lifts northward into the Bering Strait.
Confidence is growing with this upcoming storm system, so stay
tuned for latest updates.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Saturday)...

An upper trough and surface low pressure over the northern Bering
Sea is pushing a front eastward toward western Alaska. For
tonight, rain with gusty winds will occur along the leading edge
of the front as it crosses the western Bering Sea and Aleutians
Islands. As the front moves inland, storm force to gale force
winds wraps around the backside of the low as it approaches Saint
Matthew Island.

Attention then turns to Typhoon Merbok, transitioning to an
extra- tropical low pressure system as it moves from the West
Pacific Ocean into the Bering Sea from Thursday to Saturday.
Initially, winds will be south to southwest out ahead of the low,
then switch to the west as the low passes to the north. The core
of the strongest winds are expected in an area east of Attu Island
and west of Adak. Therefore, a High Wind Warning has been issued
from Thursday evening through Friday morning for the Western and
Central Aleutians. The winds should begin to slowly diminish
through the day Friday for the regions as the surface low lifts
northward.

For Friday through the weekend, the heaviest rain and strongest
winds will be over the entire Bering Sea, including the potential
for the Pribilof Islands to experience storm to hurricane force
winds. There is some uncertainty in the storm track on Friday, but
current forecasts indicate a swath of strong southwesterly winds
moving over the Islands Friday. Any shift in the track or change
in the intensity could alter the trajectory of the core of
strongest winds. Nonetheless, this is a significant storm that
will be closely monitored, so stay tuned for updates.

&&

.MARINE...

Typhoon Merbok remains as the main issue for the latter part of
this week. It will weaken under typhoon force before it gets to
the Bering Sea, but will rapidly re-intensify and go through the
extra-tropical transition as it ingests cold air from eastern
Russia tonight. There is still some minor uncertainty as to the
exact track and strength of this storm as it moves through the
Bering, however the center of the low should pass over Shemya
Thursday afternoon. It will then track from the Western Bering
Sea to the vicinity of Norton Sound on Saturday. Expect widespread
storm force winds across the Bering with areas of Hurricane Force
winds. The hurricane force winds are most likely from the Western
Aleutians to the Central Bering Sea between Thursday night and
Friday night. Seas are also expected to build rapidly with
widespread 30 to 40 ft seas across the Bering with 40 to 55 ft
seas associated with the strongest winds. This will be a major
Bering Sea Storm and mariners are encouraged begin preparing for
it now.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Sunday through Wednesday)...

Unsettled conditions expected across Southern Alaska through the
extended period, with brief reprieves provided by weak transient
ridging. Several bouts of intense winds and rainfall expected for
both Southwestern Alaska and Southcentral.

By Saturday evening, the intensity of Typhoon Merbok remnants in
the Eastern Bering will have begun to wane, however will still be
producing strong winds blowing into the southwest Alaska
coastline. The concern of heavy winds and rainfall associated with
this low begins to diminish into Sunday evening. Model
discrepancies have eased as the models have come more into line,
increasing our confidence with shorter range products as well as
into the extended period. The Canadian model remaining an outlier
regarding the evolution of Merbok, however its solution is
approaching that of the GFS, NAM, and Euro solutions. Wednesday
12Z Canadian and Euro models advance a new north Pacific low
across the Eastern Aleutians into the Bristol Bay area Monday
morning. The GFS solution holds the advancement of the new system,
crossing the Aleutians Tuesday morning, with a focus of elevated
winds through the gaps and passes, as well as up Kamishak Gap into
the Greater Bristol Bay area. Additionally, a low forming off of
the Kamchatka Peninsula and, with moderate model uncertainty, will
deepen and approach the western Aleutians by Tuesday morning.
Today's 12Z GFS solution suggests a leading front and the low
itself sweeping across the Aleutian Chain. Meanwhile, the 12Z
Canadian and Euro suggest the low lingering in the Central Bering
providing strong winds and precipitation throughout the region
through next week.

From Sunday morning, a respite in precipitation for Southcentral
is expected to persist through Monday afternoon. With some
discrepancies, guidance then suggests the introduction and
intensification of a North Pacific low south of the Alaska
Peninsula. Given the aforementioned model uncertainty it is
possible there will be a revitalization of rainy conditions in
Southcentral. This system will provide heavy precipitation across
the Southcentral coastline and eventually moves inland.
Precipitation associated with this system is expected to persist
into Wednesday. In the GFS solution as the system approaches
Kodiak Island, southeasterly flow promotes the development of
Barrier jet winds along the northern Gulf coast including Prince
William Sound Tuesday morning. Windy and rainy conditions
currently are expected to continue into Wednesday in
Southcentral.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Warning 187 191.
		 High Wind Watch 155 195.
		 Coastal Flood Watch 155.
MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning 177 178 411 413.
		 Storm Warning 175 176 412.
		 Gale Warning 155 165 170 172-174 179-181 185 414.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...ED
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...MF
MARINE/LONG TERM...CL