Storm Warning 4, NWS Anchorage, AK

299 
FZAK62 PAFC 160021
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
321 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-161500-
321 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...A 964 mb low at 48N 174E loops
into the North Pacific at 974 mb for Mon afternoon. Its front moves
across the Southern Bering through Mon afternoon. High pressure 
remains over the Northern Bering through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-161500-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
321 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 14 to 22 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 16 to 25 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 16 to 24 ft. Freezing spray. 
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

PKZ412-161500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
321 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-161500-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
321 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-161500-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
321 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.SUN...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

954 
FZAK62 PAFC 161247
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
347 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-170230-
347 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 mb low at 49N 173E meanders to 48N 171E at 976 mb Mon
evening. Its front continues moving from the southern Bering to
the northern Bering through Mon night. Another 981 mb North 
Pacific low Sun night moves to 48N 179W at 973 mb Mon night while 
absorbing the aforementioned 976 mb.

$$

PKZ411-170230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
347 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 35 to 50 kt. Seas 19 to 30 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft.
Heavy freezing spray N of 58N.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 25 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 21 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ412-170230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
347 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.
Heavy freezing spray N of 58N.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft. Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 9 to 16 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-170230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
347 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 15 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind up to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ414-170230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
347 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 9 ft.
Heavy freezing spray N of 57N.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
Freezing spray.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

872 
FZAK62 PAFC 170000
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
300 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-171445-
300 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 968 mb low near 48N 173E moves into the North Pacific and 
dissipates Tue afternoon. Its front extends over the southern Bering
through Tue afternoon. A second 989 mb North Pacific low moves to 
50N 173E at 969 mb Tue afternoon. Its front approaches the Aleutians
Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ411-171445-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
300 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Freezing spray N of
57N. Snow with rain S of 56N.
.MON...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 15 to 23 ft. Heavy freezing
spray N of 57N. Snow and rain S of 56N.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft. Freezing spray N
of 58N. Snow with rain S of 56N.
.TUE...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 13 to 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 14 to 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ412-171445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
300 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Freezing spray N of
58N. Snow with rain S of 57N.
.MON...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 10 to 17 ft. Freezing spray N of 58N.
Snow with rain S of 57N.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 to 40 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft. Freezing spray N of
58N. Snow.
.TUE...E wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 to 35 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

PKZ413-171445-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
300 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt becoming E after midnight. Seas 7 to
11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ414-171445-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
300 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

.TONIGHT...E wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Snow and rain.
.MON...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft. Rain.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 7 ft. Snow and rain.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 3 to 8 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
431 PM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A broad southerly flow persists from the Gulf of Alaska north
across Southcentral Alaska this afternoon. The storm system that
brought gusty gap winds and wintry precipitation to the region
yesterday has weakened considerably as the surface low drifts
slowly up Cook Inlet. Winds across Cook Inlet are varied this
afternoon. Locations from the Mat Valley south to Kenai are holding
onto a northerly wind in response to the position of the low
while Turnagain Arm and higher elevations continue to report
southeasterly winds due to the aforementioned flow aloft. The
southerly push of warmer air as also helped modify the airmass
inland, with temperatures pushing above freezing all the way into
the northern Susitna Valley, where rain has been reported in
Talkeetna. Temperatures in the Copper River Basin have climbed
into the upper 20s, while temperature in the Matanuska Valley have
pushed to around 40F as gusty winds there have helped mix the
lower levels of the atmosphere.

Farther west, an area of low pressure over the eastern Bering
continues is being supported by an upper-level shortwave situated
along the Southwest coast. An onshore flow around Bristol Bay is
helping push some light snow toward King Salmon and Dillingham
along with an expansive area of low stratus and mist farther
inland. To the north, scattered snow showers continue over the
Kuskokwim Delta.

For the Bering and Aleutians, colder air continues to spill
southward under a general north to northwest flow. A shortwave
over the central Bering and dropping south is helping maintain
instability and scattered snow showers.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Model guidance remains in good agreement with the overall
synoptic scale features through the weekend. One significant
difference is the evolution of an elongated shortwave currently
over the southern Bering. The EC/GEM/NAM continue to advertise the
transitions of this wave to a more consolidated low as it
moves from Southwest Alaska into Southcentral. The GFS continues
to advertise some consolidation, but not to extent of other
guidance. Moreover, the GFS keeps an ejecting shortwave farther
south and east. This solution would keep the bulk of moisture (i.e.
snow) over Prince William Sound rather than Cook Inlet. The 12z
NAM had shifted more to reflect the GFS. However, recent 18z runs
of the NAM and GEM regional have moved away from the GFS solution,
showing it as the outlier. Thus, forecasted snow amounts and
timing of precipitation are weighted to the other models. Out
west, model guidance remains locked in on a storm force low moving
northward towards the Bering for tonight through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...Expect VFR conditions with light and variable winds. An
isolated southerly wind gust is possible through this evening, but
is looking less likely and is low confidence. A mixed rain/snow
shower is also possible through this evening; however anything
that develops should be light and short in duration. Given the
weakening wind flow and temperatures around freezing, any clearing
that occurs late evening into the overnight hours could result in
the development of fog and/or low stratus over the Inlet and Knik
Arm. VCFG is in the TAF, but, again, confidence is low. The storm
system will move toward Anchorage for Saturday morning with snow
and MVFR to IFR conditions developing by mid-morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday night)...

The remnants of the low that impacted much of the region over the
past two days are moving up Cook Inlet this evening, producing a
few lingering showers in the Susitna Valley. Focus then quickly
shifts to an upper level low over Southwest Alaska and another
moderate to weak low moving into Southeast Alaska. A weak upper
level wave and surface low extending northwest of the southeast
low will disconnect from the primary wave and move into Western
Prince William Sound Saturday morning. Meanwhile, the upper level
low/trough will consolidate and move over Southcentral from the
southwest around the same time. The two systems will work in
tandem to produce widespread snowfall for much of Southcentral on
Saturday with the western system also bringing the return of cold
air aloft, which was scoured away by the most recent storm. Expect
1 to 2 inches of snow for the Western Kenai, and 2 to 4 for the
Anchorage Bowl and Mat-Su Valleys. Upper elevations of the
Anchorage and Eagle River Hillsides will likely receive 4 to 6
inches. The onset of precipitation is expected in the early
morning hours for the Kenai Peninsula and around sunrise for
Anchorage and the Mat-Su. It will take some time for the cold air
to scour out the warm air through the Eastern Turnagain Arm, but
some snow will likely return to sea level by the end of the event.

Overnight on Saturday the precipitation will shift east towards
Valdez and Cordova. Southerly flow aloft should favor the Valdez
area over Thompson Pass with 6-8 and 4-6 inches, respectively.
Cordova will remain mostly rain until the cold air aloft reaches
the area Saturday evening for a quick 1 to 2 inches. As the system
departs on Sunday, a brief round of very light snow is possible in
Anchorage and Eagle River, particularly on the Hillside, where
northwesterly upslope winds will help to precipitate out any
remaining moisture from the Cook Inlet and Susitna Valley. On
Monday colder temperatures and clearer skies will return with dry
conditions expected across Southcentral.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Monday)...

Episodes of isolated to scattered snow showers are expected over
Southwest AK tonight through Saturday night as a result of upper
waves and a strong upper low from the Bering. Snowfall
accumulation could be challenging for this event depending on how
soon the upper ridging over the Interior phases out so the upper
low could continue transiting eastward into Southcentral without
stalling. Another upper wave from the Bering could cause periods
of light snow between Sun night and Mon morning. Overall, wintry
conditions are expected for the short term with some quiet
periods of clear to partly cloudy skies favored by upper level
ridging passing through the region Sun morning through Sun
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Monday)...

Multiple upper waves passing through the Aleutians and Bering
Sat and Sun will invite strong gales near the western Aleutians
tonight before reaching storm force winds Sat night. A strong
frontal system connected to a North Pacific low will bring warm
tropical moisture and warm winds, causing rain to fall over parts
of the Aleutian Chain, with rain/snow mixed expected with the
onset of the low into the weekend. Large seas of more than 20 ft,
gales and storm-force winds will be expected from this low the
next couple days. Heavy freezing spray over the Northern Bering
and near the ice edge will continue.

&&

.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Monday through Wednesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A weak area of high pressure will maintain winds
less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for Monday. As high
pressure weakens on Tuesday, a North Pacific low may have the
potential to bring easterly gale force winds and seas above 20 ft
at times along the northern gulf coast, including Shelikof Strait
and the Barren Islands, and possibly lasting through Wednesday.

Bering Sea: A broad area of low pressure will remain stationary
through the middle of next week. Small, embedded disturbances
circulating around the broad low will bring gale force winds and
seas above 20 ft at times for south of the Aleutians and much of
the Bering Sea through Wednesday.

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Tuesday through Friday)...

Looking ahead into the extended forecast, the latest model
guidance suite is in decent agreement with the evolution and
progression of the synoptic scale features for early next week but
diverge significantly in the specific details towards the end of
the period. For most of the southern mainland, high pressure will
leave a brief period of dry weather and seasonal temperatures
before a wet pattern returns for Wednesday onward. There is decent
continuity for a North Pacific low tracking south of the Alaska
Peninsula into or near the Gulf with another low following on its
heels later next week. Models seem to key on a frontal boundary
extending from the center of the first North Pacific low, bringing
some warmer air, precipitation, and wind from Kodiak Island
northward to the southern mainland. If this scenario were to
materialize, there is a potential that a barrier jet may develop
along the northern Gulf coast from Prince William Sound to the
Copper River Delta area. Where the uncertainty emerges is the
track, position, and timing of these systems that still needs to
be ironed out with subsequent model runs (e.g., GFS is the wettest
compared to other drier solutions). Out west, a broad trough will
settle just south of the Aleutians. Weak, embedded shortwaves
pivoting around the eastern periphery of the trough will bring a
wintry mix of rain/snow and gusty winds at times along the
southern portion of the Aleutians into the Bering Sea.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Gale 172-177. Storm 178.
		 Heavy Freezing Spray 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...CJ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
MARINE/LONG TERM...MF