Gale Warning 71, NWS Anchorage, AK

104 
FZAK52 PAFC 151253
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-160200-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1001 mb low near Nunivak Island moves to 40 nm southeast of
Hooper Bay at 1009 mb Sat afternoon, then dissipates as it moves 
inland. A 969 mb low 375 nm south of Shemya meanders to 380 nm
south of Shemya at 971 mb Sun night. Its front moves through the 
Western and Central Aleutians through Sat afternoon, then drifts 
north over the central and western Bering Sun night.

$$

PKZ150-160200-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...S wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ155-160200-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ160-160200-
Bristol Bay-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 15 kt.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt increasing to 15 kt in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...E wind 20 kt.
.TUE...E wind 15 kt.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-160200-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft. Freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt except SW 15 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 4 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-160200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ171-160200-
Unalaska Bay-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Gusts to 35 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.

$$

PKZ172-160200-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...S wind 15 kt becoming SE 25 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ173-160200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 11 ft building to 16 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ174-160200-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 18 ft.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-160200-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SUN...S wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-160200-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 21 ft in the
afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-160200-
Adak to Kiska-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...E wind 45 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight.
Seas 19 ft. Rain. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE..E wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-160200-
Kiska to Attu-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 20 ft. Rain with snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft Bering side...
21 ft Pac side.
.SUN...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft Bering side...19 ft Pac side. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft.
.WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ179-160200-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
Freezing spray. Snow.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-160200-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TODAY...SW wind 10 kt.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt in the evening becoming variable less than 10 kt.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-160200-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TODAY...N wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.MON THROUGH WED...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-160200-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
353 AM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TODAY...N wind 25 kt. Seas in ice free waters 7 ft. 
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT THROUGH TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 13 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.

$$

674 
FZAK52 PAFC 160051
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-161330-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 964 mb low 285 nm South of Shemya loops into the North Pacific 
at 974 mb for Mon afternoon. Its front moves across the Southern 
Bering through Mon afternoon. High pressure remains over the 
Northern Bering through Mon afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-161330-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ155-161330-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt except variable 10 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 7 ft building to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ160-161330-
Bristol Bay-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TONIGHT...SW wind 10 kt.
.SUN...E wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 20 kt.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ165-161330-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 20 kt except SW 15 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except E 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
7 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-161330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ171-161330-
Unalaska Bay-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-161330-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft. Rain.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ173-161330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
15 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ174-161330-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas
19 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ175-161330-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-161330-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming S 30 kt after midnight. Seas
22 ft. Rain.
.SUN...E wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-161330-
Adak to Kiska-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...Bering side, E wind 45 kt diminishing to 30 kt after
midnight. Pac side, SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SUN...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ178-161330-
Kiska to Attu-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 27 ft Bering side...21 ft Pac side.
Widespread snow showers.
.SUN...E wind 45 kt. Seas 27 ft Bering side...18 ft Pac side. Snow 
showers.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...E wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ179-161330-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight. Seas
5 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray. 
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Snow showers.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ180-161330-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 10 kt becoming SE after midnight.
.SUN...E wind 20 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ181-161330-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt.
.SUN...NE wind 15 kt.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-161330-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
351 PM AKST Sat Jan 15 2022

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 20 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 30 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 8 ft. Heavy freezing
spray.
.SUN...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 40 kt W of Saint
Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft. Heavy freezing spray.
.SUN NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island...NE 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy freezing 
spray.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 12 ft.

$$

950 
FZAK52 PAFC 161250
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-170130-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 965 mb low 280 nm south of Shemya meanders to 370 nm south of
Shemya at 976 mb Mon evening. Its front continues moving from the
southern Bering to the northern Bering through Mon night. Another
981 mb North Pacific low Sun night moves to 270 nm south of Adak at
973 mb Mon night while absorbing the aforementioned 976 mb.

$$

PKZ150-170130-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...Variable wind 10 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ155-170130-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except SE 20 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt except SE 25 kt from the Shumagin Islands E.
Seas 11 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-170130-
Bristol Bay-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

.TODAY...E wind 10 kt becoming NE in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E wind 20 kt.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...N wind 15 kt.
.THU...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-170130-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt except SE 20 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 5 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except E 20 kt from Port Moller E.
Seas 5 ft.
.MON...E wind 30 kt except E 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ170-170130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ171-170130-
Unalaska Bay-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Gusts to 40 kt. Seas 5 ft.
Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
40 kt in the morning. Seas 5 ft subsiding to 3 ft in the afternoon. 
Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-170130-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT AND MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-170130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 16 ft subsiding to 11 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ174-170130-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 30 kt diminishing to 20 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 20 ft subsiding to 15 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ175-170130-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt becoming SE 20 kt after midnight. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ176-170130-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon.
Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-170130-
Adak to Kiska-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH TUE...E wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ178-170130-
Kiska to Attu-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 26 ft Bering side...17 ft Pac side.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.MON...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 22 ft Bering side...15 ft Pac side.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas 21 ft.
.WED...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-170130-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Freezing spray. Snow showers.
.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ180-170130-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT AND MON...E wind 20 kt.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.TUE...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...N wind 25 kt.
.THU...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ181-170130-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 20 kt.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt.

$$

PKZ185-170130-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
350 AM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
Heavy freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
Heavy freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 16 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 11 ft.
.THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

776 
FZAK52 PAFC 170001
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-171300-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 968 mb low 280 nm south of Attu moves into the North Pacific 
and dissipates Tue afternoon. Its front extends over the southern 
Bering through Tue afternoon. A second 989 mb North Pacific low moves
to 160 nm south of Attu at 969 mb Tue afternoon. Its front 
approaches the Aleutians Tue afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-171300-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED...N wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-171300-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft. Rain showers and snow
showers.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ160-171300-
Bristol Bay-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON...NE wind 20 kt.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...N wind 15 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ165-171300-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt except E 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas
6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt except E 20 kt from Port Moller E. Seas 6 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.

$$

PKZ170-171300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.

$$

PKZ171-171300-
Unalaska Bay-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas
3 ft. Widespread rain showers.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.

$$

PKZ172-171300-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain showers.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight.
Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.WED...E wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ173-171300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.

$$

PKZ174-171300-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-171300-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 20 kt increasing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ176-171300-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.MON...S wind 20 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.WED...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ177-171300-
Adak to Kiska-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 30 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
14 ft.
.TUE...E wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ178-171300-
Kiska to Attu-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...E wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...E wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...E wind 40 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.

$$

PKZ179-171300-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft. Rain.
.MON...E wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Rain and snow.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft. Rain and snow.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.

$$

PKZ180-171300-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.MON...E wind 25 kt.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 25 kt.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 20 kt.
.WED...N wind 25 kt.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ181-171300-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...BRISK WIND ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 25 kt. Snow.
.MON...NE wind 25 kt. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 25 kt.
.WED THROUGH THU...N wind 25 kt.
.FRI...N wind 20 kt.

$$

PKZ185-171300-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
301 PM AKST Sun Jan 16 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 40 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy 
freezing spray.
.MON...NE wind 30 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 45 kt W of
Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.MON NIGHT...NE wind 35 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 45 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas in ice free waters 15 ft. Heavy
freezing spray. Snow.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE wind 40 kt. Seas in ice free waters 14 ft.
.WED...N wind 35 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N wind 30 kt. Seas in ice free waters 10 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
534 AM AKST Fri Jan 14 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

Southcentral Alaska remains under deep southerly to southeasterly
flow this morning as what was once a very strong storm system
continues to weaken. The low continues to move northwestward
towards Bristol Bay opening up into a trough as it does so. Even
though, the flow is southerly, Seward has been reporting light
snow for much of the night with temperatures hovering right near
freezing. Visibility has dropped to as low as 3/4 mile at times
as well overnight. Portage continued to receive rain overnight
with temperatures in the mid to upper 30s and southeasterly winds
gusting as high as 55 mph. Turnagain Pass snotel reported snowfall
of 21.4 inches so far with this system with snow still falling
there as of this writing. Elsewhere across Southcentral,
conditions remained rather quiet overnight with most areas in the
20s and 30s except for the Copper River Basin where Gulkana was
mostly in the teens.

Much of Southwest Alaska currently remains under general weak
synoptic flow aloft. Though, when looking at water vapor imagery
with the 500 mb height lines of various models overlaid, we see
what was once a vertically stacked low earlier in the night
opening into a upper level trough as the surface low weakens as it
continues moving northwestward towards northern Bristol Bay.
Ahead of this feature are just sporadic light snow showers across
Southwest with Aniak, New Stuyahok, Dillingham, and Chevak
reporting light snow earlier in the night. All in all though,
conditions remain rather quiet with temperatures mostly in the
teens across the Kuskokwim Delta and the Lower Kuskokwim Valley
with 20s to low 30s for Bristol Bay. Iliamna is one of the warm
spots in the mid to upper 30s this morning.

An upper level low is present moving southward through the Bering
Sea. Underneath this upper level low the flow is predominantly
northeasterly/northerly. As a result, Arctic air continues to flow
off the ice edge and over the relatively warm water of the Bering
creating unstable conditions. This can be seen on the nighttime
microphysics imagery this morning as stratocumulus dominates much
of the Bering. Underneath some of these clouds are occasional snow
showers that are affecting the marine waters of the Bering as
well as the Pribilofs Islands and the Aleutian Chain. Heavy
freezing spray is also continuing mainly near the ice edge.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Overall, model guidance remains in good agreement on the synoptic
scale features out through Day 3. Where differences continue to
arise is how exactly the upper level low center over the Bering
plays out as it moves eastward into Southcentral. The
EC/Canadian-NH/NAM all seem to show a more consolidated and
concentric look to the upper level low as it moves into Southwest
and then east into Southcentral. Therefore, these were the models
of choice for this forecast package. The GFS seems to be the
outlier with the energy associated with this upper level low
center too stretched out and too far south. Out west, model
guidance maintains the status quo on a storm force low moving
northward towards the Bering for tonight through the weekend.
Therefore, only small changes made here mostly to fine tune the
corridor of where storm force winds will be.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected for the entire TAF package.
Light winds mainly out of the north or northwest are expected to
continue through around 17-18z this morning. Though, expect
southeasterly winds around 2000 ft causing wind shear over the
terminal. A southeasterly Turnagain Arm wind is expected to bend
over the terminal around mid-morning (17-18z) as the surface low
currently over the Barren Islands region moves up Cook Inlet. Any
precipitation that tracks up the Inlet with the low could fall in
the form of rain as temperatures climb above freezing with the
southeasterly wind. Any rain that does fall, however, would be
light in intensity and short in duration.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Sunday night)...

A rapidly weakening low in southern Cook Inlet this morning will
track quickly inland across interior Southwest Alaska and
dissipate this morning. At the same time, a series of upper level
short-waves will lift northward across Southcentral this morning
then exit this afternoon. Strong south to southeast flow behind
the surface low will focus precipitation over upslope areas of
the eastern Kenai Peninsula and northern to western Susitna
Valley, with continued downslope drying from the western Kenai
to Anchorage and the Matanuska Valley. Pressure rises behind
the surface low and shifting of the pressure gradients favors
winds coming into Anchorage this morning, especially along the
upper hillside and south to west Anchorage as the Turnagain Arm
jet bends toward the city. This will cause temperatures to jump
into the mid to upper 30s. With all key features exiting the
region, winds and precipitation will quickly diminish this
afternoon through this evening. As winds die down, temperatures
across most of Southcentral will drop back below freezing.

Another deep storm system moving out of the Pacific will take a
much further east track into the eastern Gulf of Alaska and toward
Southeast Alaska tonight, with wind and precipitation along the
western periphery of the storm impacting the central Gulf. The
next feature of interest for Southcentral will be a large upper
level low and short-wave trough currently over the Bering Sea. It
will approach Southcentral Friday night and Saturday, likely
bringing snow to much of Southcentral. However, at the moment
there is quite a bit of uncertainty in the track of this low and
accompanying short-waves, making it difficult to nail down timing
of snow and snowfall accumulation. The low will progress steadily
eastward across the region, so it generally looks like a quick
shot of snow and amounts will generally be light. However, the
leading short-wave looks fairly robust and cold air advection
will contribute to vertical motion and a transition to dendrites
as we head through the event. Thus, there is potential for
localized higher amounts for which ever areas end out ahead of
that short-wave. Conditions will dry out Saturday night-Sunday
in the wake of this low, with colder temperatures settling in.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Saturday night)...

Scattered showers are the main story across Southwest Alaska this
morning. One region of mixed snow and rain showers is occurring
over the eastern interior Bristol Bay region, on the west side of
the low-level center of a strong low now quickly weakening as it
tracks northward into the mouth of Cook Inlet. The region of
showers will move northward along the Aleutian/Alaska Range from
Bristol Bay into the Kuskokwim Valley through this evening. Warmer
air wrapping around the core of the low has allowed for surface
temperatures to rise above freezing and for some precipitation to
fall as rain, especially along the western slopes of the
Aleutian/Alaska Range. Above freezing air will quickly retreat
eastward this morning, meaning this rain will begin to mix with
and eventually become all snow through the morning hours.

A second batch of snow showers lingers in the Kuskokwim Delta as
a broad surface low moves slowly northward through Saturday.
Northerly flow will shift to southwesterly flow this evening
behind this low, pushing colder air over the Bering into
Southwest Alaska. This colder air will usher in a strong upper-
level low which will make for the next round of active weather
beginning early Saturday morning. Model solutions have trended
toward increased snowfall for portions of Bristol Bay and the
Kuskokwim Valley as a cold front aloft and divergent flow enhance
lift ahead of the strong upper low. Areas from Iliamna northward
can broadly expect 1 to 3 inches of accumulation as a band of
light snow develops early Saturday morning and pushes north
through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2: Today
through Saturday night)...

Broad northerly flow across the Bering Sea to the central and
eastern Aleutians continues through this afternoon. A low over
Southwest Alaska will elongate and stretch into the Bering Sea,
drawing this colder air from the central Bering eastward. A North
Pacific low tracks toward the western Aleutians. Winds shift to
easterly tonight ahead of the low as a front brings snow which
quickly transitions to rain for the western and central
Aleutians. Winds increase to storm force through the western
Aleutians by Saturday afternoon. The front progresses slowly
eastward, reaching the eastern Aleutians by Saturday night and
bringing primarily rain on warmer, southeasterly flow. Heavy
freezing spray over the Northern Bering and near the ice edge will
continue.

&&

.Marine (Days 3 through 5: Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska: A weak area of high pressure will maintain winds
less than 35 kts and seas less than 20 ft for the Day 3 through 5
period.

Bering Sea: A broad area of low pressure settling across the
western Aleutians to the North Pacific will remain stationary
through early next week. Small, embedded disturbances circulating
around the broad low will bring gale force winds and seas above 20
ft at times for south of the Aleutians and much of the Bering Sea
through Tuesday.

.Long Term Discussion (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

Overall, the latest operational model runs are in decent agreement
with the evolution and progression of the synoptic scale features
for early next week but diverge in the specific details towards
the end of the period. For Southcentral, high pressure building
over the Gulf of Alaska will leave a brief period of dry weather
from Monday through Wednesday. The rest of the mainland, including
coastal and interior Southwest, is expected to be relatively dry
with near to below normal temperatures as the ridge axis extends
north of the Alaska Peninsula to the eastern Bering Sea. Beginning
on Wednesday, models seem to key on a frontal boundary extending
from the center of a North Pacific low, bringing precipitation and
wind from Kodiak Island northward to the southern mainland. If
this scenario were to materialize, there is a potential that a
barrier jet will develop along the northern Gulf coast from Prince
William Sound to the Copper River Delta area. Where the
uncertainty emerges is the track, position, and timing of the low
and front that still needs to be ironed out with subsequent model
runs. Out west, a broad trough will settle across the western
Aleutians to the North Pacific. Weak, embedded shortwaves and
surface lows moving upstream of the trough will bring a wintry mix
of rain/snow and gusty winds at times along the southern portion
of the Aleutians into the Bering Sea. Depending on the track and
positions of these shortwaves, this could also bring widespread
precipitation to the eastern Aleutians and the southwestern
mainland later next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...Storm Warning 178
Gale Warning 411 413 119 120 125 130 174 175 176 177. Heavy
Freezing Spray Warning 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MV
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SEB
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CQ
MARINE/LONG TERM...MF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1038 AM AKST FRI JAN 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     SNOW             20 SSW TONSINA          61.35N 145.31W
01/13/2022  E12.0 INCH       VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

0604 PM     SNOW             TURNAGAIN PASS          60.79N 149.17W
01/13/2022  M14.0 INCH       KENAI PENINSULA    AK   PUBLIC

            SNOW FROM THE PAST 24 HOURS AT 1600 NEAR
            TURNAGAIN PASS. 18; AT 2400. SLIGHTLY LESS
            RIGHT AT THE ROAD. HEAVY RAIN UP TO ABOUT
            750 AROUND NOON. VISIBILITY AT THE TOP OF
            TURNAGAIN PASS WAS ABOUT 1/2 MILE AROUND
            3:00 P.M. AK TIME.

0326 PM     SNOW             UPPER POTTER VALLEY     61.06N 149.76W
01/13/2022  M1.7 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER MEASURED 1.7 OF SNOW.

0801 PM     SNOW             UPPER HILLSIDE          61.12N 149.72W
01/13/2022  M1.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

0700 AM     SNOW             MID HILLSIDE            61.11N 149.78W
01/14/2022  M1.0 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   PUBLIC

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1207 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     SNOW             26 S TONSINA            61.27N 145.28W
01/13/2022  M14.0 INCH       VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

JPW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1209 PM AKST FRI JAN 14 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     SNOW             13 S TONSINA            61.45N 145.11W
01/13/2022  M6.0 INCH        VALDEZ-CORDOVA     AK   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

&&

JPW