Storm Warning 108, NWS Anchorage, AK

392 
FZAK62 PAFC 281138
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-290215-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 974 mb low at 54N 179W deepens to 961 mb as it moves to 55N 
167W Fri afternoon. The low weakens to 965 mb as it moves to 55N 
153W Fri night. A 1009 mb Kamchatka low moves to 57N 165E for Sat 
night.

$$

PKZ411-290215-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-290215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 30 to 45 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.TUE...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 16 ft.

$$

PKZ413-290215-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 to 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 12 to 20 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 to 40 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 11 to 19 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ414-290215-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 25 to 40 kt becoming NE 35 to 50 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.

$$

707 
FZAK62 PAFC 282345
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-291230-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 961 mb low at 55N 167W moves to the Eastern Gulf of Alaska for 
Sun afternoon. A 1009 mb Sea of Okhotsk low and front Sun morning
deepens as it approaches the Western Aleutians and Bering at 1000
mb by Sun afternoon

$$

PKZ411-291230-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.MON...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 18 ft.

$$

PKZ412-291230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 17 ft.

$$

PKZ413-291230-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 to 45 kt diminishing to 20 to 30 kt after 
midnight. Seas 12 to 20 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 12 to 15 ft.

$$

PKZ414-291230-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 35 to 50 kt becoming NW 15 to 30 kt after
midnight. Seas 10 to 18 ft. Rain with snow.
.SAT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 13 to 21 ft.
.WED...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 12 to 16 ft.

$$

485 
FZAK62 PAFC 291138
OFFALU

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
338 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

Offshore Waters Forecast for the Bering Sea

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ499-300115-
338 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...

A 965 mb low at 56N 152W moves to the southern Gulf of Alaska Sat
morning. A 1005 mb Kamchatka low at 59N 166E Sun morning deepens 
to 997 mb as it moves to 58N 172E for Sun night.

$$

PKZ411-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore West of 180 and East of the International
Dateline-
338 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

.TODAY...NW wind 20 to 30 kt diminishing to 10 to 25 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 10 to 25 kt becoming S 20 to 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.MON THROUGH WED...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ412-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and North of 56N-
338 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.

$$

PKZ413-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore 171W to 180 and South of 56N-
338 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 10 to 13 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt becoming W 10 to 20 kt after midnight.
Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 7 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.MON...S wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ414-300115-
Bering Sea Offshore East of 171W-
338 AM AKDT Sat Oct 29 2022

.TODAY...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 12 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 to 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.MON...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 5 to 10 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...W wind 15 to 25 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
520 AM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The pattern continues to be dominated by an upper-level trough
situated over the eastern part of the state. An upper-level low
drifting southward over the northeastern Gulf of Alaska anchors
this trough. This configuration is helping to foster cold air
advection across Southcentral Alaska as shortwaves from the
interior move southward, bringing colder air with them.
Additionally, shortwaves continue to drive southeastward through
the west-central Gulf as the trough continues to dig
southeastward. A closer look at the surface reveals a strong
surface low underneath the associated upper-level low in the
northeastern Gulf. A strong pressure gradient exists on the Gulf
Coast. This pressure gradient, along with the southward moving
shortwaves from the interior of the state, are causing strong
gusty winds through the favored gaps and passes around the coast.
Valdez and Seward have gusts to around 35 kts while Whittier has
gusts to around 30 kts. Kodiak is also getting in on the higher
wind gusts as well with gusts to around 35 kts. Meanwhile,
Middleton Island Radar shows rain bands moving around the center
of circulation of the low pressure in the northern Gulf with the
majority of the rain remaining off-shore.

Further out west, a shortwave transient upper ridge moves
eastward over the southwest part of the state as dry conditions
dominate. Shortwaves embedded in the flow and associated with an
upper low moving on-shore to the Yukon-Delta continue to drop
southeastward over the Kuskokwim Valley and are producing cloudy
conditions with snow and lower visibilities for Bethel and
Sleetmute. Most of the Bristol Bay area remains clear this
morning.

Across the Bering and Aleutian Chain, zonal flow from northwest
to southeast. Shortwaves embedded in the northwest flow continue
to impact the eastern Aleutians with Dutch Harbor, Cold Bay, and
Sand Point all reporting winds gusts of 25-35 kts with scattered
showers around those areas. Meanwhile, the western Aleutians see
clouds as a front begins to push in from the North Pacific. Shemya
currently reports light drizzle with lower cloud ceilings.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

The latest 00z suite of model runs are in good agreement with the
overall synoptic pattern as well as placement and intensity of
synoptic features in the short-term. Model agreement specifically
with the with current system in the Gulf has come together towards
the GFS solution from last night with a more southern and eastern
solution with only some effects from wind and precipitation
towards Prince William Sound.

Out west, model agreement has also increased with respect to the
evolution, track, and strength of a system poised to enter the
western Bering Sea and effect the Aleutian Chain starting on
Thursday. This system looks to be a fast mover as the flow
continues to be progressive generally from west to east. Models
take the system to the eastern Bering by Friday and into the Gulf
of Alaska near Kodiak Island by Saturday. The forecast challenge
here will be determining exactly where the corridor of strongest
winds will be. It is important to note that the 00z NAM continues
the trend towards the other models with a stronger low. Also,
while the models generally agree on the track of this system, the
00z ECMWF is still the most progressive and furthest east of the
models, although not quite as far east as last night. Overall
forecast confidence has increased since last night and is moderate
to above average. However, continue to follow the latest
forecasts as details emerge and get ironed out with regards to the
potential eastward moving Bering system towards the end of the
work and the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected to persist along with
northerly winds throughout the TAF period. Cold air advection
continues through Friday night. With that exists some uncertainty
with the magnitude of winds/gusts. Generally, winds should be 10
kts or less, but there could be an isolated gust or sustained
reading higher than that.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Today
through Saturday)...

The surface low that spun up in the low level cold advection
along the north gulf coast is slowly moving eastward this morning.
There remains a strong pressure gradient over the western Gulf
including Kodiak Island which is bringing strong winds to that
region. The winds should be at their peak intensity this morning
and then very slowly diminish through Friday. Other areas along
the north Gulf coast that typically see strong gap winds, such as
Seward, Whittier, and Valdez are not disappointing and also have
gusty offshore winds in those areas. The strongest winds are also
expected to be this morning in these areas with winds slowly
diminishing into Friday.

The large longwave trough in which the upper level low associated
with the surface low resides is remaining over Southcentral so
while the first upper low weakens and moves eastward, another one
is moving in from the northwest behind it. This second low will
develop into a cutoff low as it crosses the Aleutian Range and
moves over Kodiak Island this afternoon and then moves over the
northern Gulf. This will keep some periods of clouds around much
of southcentral today and then there should be a decrease in
overall cloud cover as the cutoff low moves over the Gulf.

A large low in the Bering Sea will move into the Gulf of Alaska on
Saturday. This system will mostly impact the Gulf of Alaska
coastline including Kodiak Island. As the front approaches Kodiak
Island Friday night, there will be a question of precipitation
type for Kodiak. At this time, it looks like it will start out as
snow on Friday evening and then transition to rain overnight
Friday night. Strong easterly winds will accompany this front so
even if there is a period of blowing snow in the evening, it
should just be a matter of time before it turns to rain in Kodiak.
For other areas of the north Gulf coast, there will be some strong
easterly winds developing in a barrier jet along the coast, but
the amount of precipitation should also be much less than Kodiak
as this front will be more of a glancing blow with the main
lifting with this front remaining over the Gulf waters.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)...

Winds will diminish through tonight across Southwest Alaska and
along the eastern Bering Sea and Alaska Peninsula. Cold northerly
air is expected to remain stagnant into the weekend across the
Mainland. Overall, little to no precipitation is expected through
the end of the week, the AKPen being the exception on Friday and
Friday night.

The next system moves into the western Bering late Thursday night
and will track southeast towards the southern AKPen through Friday
night. There will be little impact to Southwest Alaska aside from
increased northeasterly winds, especially filtering out through
the Kuskokwim Bay and Bristol Bay Friday night into Saturday
morning. Most of the precipitation will be along the AKPen, with
a warmer airmass associated with the low, areas south of Port
Heiden will see periods of rain. There is a chance for snow to
reach as far north as Dillingham and King Salmon, however, there
is still some model inconsistency with this next system and it
remains relatively uncertain just how far north the precipitation
will track.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...

The strongest winds have subsided, and winds along the eastern
Bering and Alaska Peninsula will continue to diminish through
tonight. Areas of gale force winds will surround the AKPen waters
through today, dropping to small craft by late this evening.

The next system moves into the western Bering this evening. There
is better model agreement for strong storm force winds tracking
along the Central and Eastern Aleutians, as well as the
possibility for hurricane force winds between Nikolski and Atka
Friday night. Hurricane force gusts are likely along the
Central/Eastern Aleutians Friday through Friday night as well.
The main area of concern for hurricane force winds will be along
the Eastern Aleutians, therefore, a High Wind Watch has been
issued. Additionally, seas are expected to reach around 35 feet
during the strongest winds. The system moves south of Kodiak
Island by Saturday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Looking ahead at the long range forecast, ensembles and
deterministic models continue to key in on broad troughing over
the Gulf of Alaska and a building ridge into the western Bering
Saturday into Sunday. A potential ~965mb low is forecast to move
from the AKPEN into the Gulf of Alaska during the 48 hour period
over the weekend while one or two embedded shortwave troughs track
southeastward into the AKPEN within a building ridge over the
Bering. As such, above average confidence exists in unsettled
conditions impacting the region from Bristol Bay into the Gulf of
Alaska up into the Gulf coast.

Across Bristol Bay, remnant northwesterly gales may be ongoing on
Saturday with timing of winds diminishing somewhat up in the air.
The GFS suggests gales may persist into the morning hours on
Sunday. Looking east and over to the Pacific side of the AKPEN,
the potential will exist for easterly gales over the northern Gulf
on Saturday as a front encroaches upon the Gulf coast resulting
in a potential barrier jet. While the windiest conditions will
likely remain offshore, the front may bring northeasterly gales
directly across Kodiak Island before the low pushes further east
later in the day. Models are in relatively good agreement with
depicting westerly storm force winds across the southern extent of
the Gulf both on Saturday and Sunday. Cold air advection being
reinforced over the eastern Bering will support gale to storm
force gap winds through the AKPEN and Kamishak Bay into Sunday.
These enhanced westerly winds should gradually weaken to gale
speeds on Monday as the pressure gradient slowly relaxes. While
snow will be possible for coastal areas from Kodiak to Prince
William Sound, strong southeasterly flow at the surface and ahead
of the low will likely keep temperatures above freezing and
precipitation as mostly rain.

Confidence begins to decrease more substantially in the forecast
beyond the weekend. Ensembles suggest high pressure over the
Bering will be overtaken by the next North Pacific low late Monday
into early Tuesday. Depending on the strength and placement of
the low, southeasterly storm force winds may become widespread
over the eastern Bering by Tuesday. However, aside from the
stronger solution of the GFS, both the Canadian and ECMWF remain
much weaker and further west, which was also true of the previous
long term discussion.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...High Wind Watch: 185.

MARINE...Hurricane Force Wind Warning: 173-175.
         Storm Warning: 413 412 179 177 176 172 170 131.
         Gale Warning: 414 411 352 351 185 181 180 178 171 165
                       160 155 150 136-138 132 130 121.

FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DAN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KM
LONG TERM...BL