Hurricane Force Wind Warning 13, NWS Anchorage, AK

587 
FZAK52 PAFC 272356
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-281245-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 989 mb low 140 nm Southwest of Attu moves to 75 nm North of 
Dutch Harbor at 959 mb for Fri afternoon, and continues into the 
Central Gulf of Alaska at 966 mb by Sat afternoon. Its front moves
over the Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula into the Gulf by Sat 
afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-281245-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.FRI...W wind 30 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft
subsiding to 7 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 18 ft after
midnight. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ155-281245-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. From the
Shumagin Islands E, NW wind 40 kt becoming W 25 kt after midnight. 
Seas 14 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 30 kt becoming S 45 kt in the afternoon. From the
Shumagin Islands E, S wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt in the
afternoon. Seas 7 ft building to 12 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 55 kt except SW 45 kt from the Shumagin
Islands E. Seas 32 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E, seas 17 ft 
building to 26 ft after midnight. Gusts to 65 kts out of bays and
passes. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 50 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-281245-
Bristol Bay-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.FRI...N wind 10 kt becoming E 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...E wind 20 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ165-281245-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt becoming W 15 kt after midnight. Seas
15 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...E wind 40 kt becoming N after midnight. Seas 11 ft
building to 19 ft after midnight. Rain showers and snow.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ170-281245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W wind 20 kt becoming SE 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 35 kt becoming SW 65 kt in the afternoon. From
Unalaska E, SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
10 ft building to 23 ft in the afternoon. Gusts to 80 kts. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 60 kt diminishing to 45 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 75 kt diminishing after midnight. Seas 27 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ171-281245-
Unalaska Bay-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 kt becoming S after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Rain.
.FRI...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 60 kt becoming NW 45 kt after midnight. Gusts to
75 kts. Seas 10 ft building to 21 ft after midnight. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 3 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...S wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.

$$

PKZ172-281245-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 65 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11 ft
building to 25 ft in the afternoon. Gusts to 80 kts. Rain.
.FRI NIGHT...W wind 70 kt becoming NW 60 kt after midnight. Gusts to
80 kts out of bays and passes. Seas 35 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...S wind 25 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ173-281245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 20 kt becoming SE 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 50 kt becoming W 70 kt in the afternoon. Seas 14 ft
building to 34 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 60 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 33 ft subsiding to 20 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ174-281245-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 25 kt increasing to 40 kt after midnight. Seas
9 ft. Rain.
.FRI...SW wind 45 kt becoming W 65 kt in the afternoon. Seas 19 ft
building to 31 ft in the afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 60 kt becoming W 35 kt after midnight. Seas
35 ft subsiding to 22 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ175-281245-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 30 kt becoming SW 40 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 65 kt. Seas 23 ft building to 29 ft in the
afternoon.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 22 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-281245-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...S wind 30 kt becoming SW 45 kt after midnight. Seas 7
ft building to 17 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 55 kt. Seas 28 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight.
Seas 24 ft subsiding to 17 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 25 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-281245-
Adak to Kiska-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW wind 40 kt becoming W 50 kt after midnight. Bering 
side, seas 8 ft building to 13 ft after midnight. Pac side, seas 13 
ft building to 20 ft after midnight. Rain.
.FRI...W wind 50 kt becoming NW 40 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 70
kts. Seas 22 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ178-281245-
Kiska to Attu-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 12 ft building to 17 ft after
midnight. Rain.
.FRI...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ179-281245-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...Variable wind 10 kt becoming SE 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 10 ft.
.FRI...E wind 40 kt becoming NE 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft
building to 15 ft in the afternoon. Rain and snow.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 45 kt becoming NW 30 kt after midnight. Seas
18 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ180-281245-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 25 kt diminishing to 15 kt after midnight. Seas
11 ft.
.FRI...SE wind 15 kt becoming E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 8 ft.
Snow and rain.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 13 ft. Gusts to 55 kts. Freezing 
spray.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ181-281245-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 20 kt in the evening becoming variable 10 kt.
Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...E wind 15 kt increasing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6
ft.
.FRI NIGHT...NE wind 30 kt becoming N 20 kt after midnight. Seas
8 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ185-281245-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
356 PM AKDT Thu Oct 27 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 kt E of Saint Matthew Island... NE 20 kt W
of Saint Matthew Island. Seas 9 ft.
.FRI...N wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.FRI NIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...E wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

218 
FZAK52 PAFC 281139
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-290015-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 974 mb low 170 nm NW of Adak deepens to 961 mb as it moves to 
50 nm N of Dutch Harbor Fri afternoon. The low weakens to 965 mb 
as it moves to 190 nm E of Chignik Fri night. A 1009 mb Kamchatka 
low moves to 370 nm NW of Attu Island for Sat night.

$$

PKZ150-290015-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W wind 30 kt becoming SE in the afternoon. Seas 10 ft.
Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 15 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 20 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-290015-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE wind 35 kt becoming SW 45 kt in the afternoon, Seas 8
ft building to 16 ft in the afternoon. From the Shumagin Islands E, 
SE wind 20 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon, Seas 9 ft. 
Widespread rain showers and snow.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 55 kt except NW 45 kt from the Shumagin Islands
E. Seas 28 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E, seas 17 ft building to 
24 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft subsiding to 17 ft in the afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-290015-
Bristol Bay-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 15 kt increasing to 35 kt in the afternoon. Seas 7 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt becoming N 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Freezing spray. Snow.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 7 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ165-290015-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE wind 40 kt. From Port Moller E, SE wind 25 kt becoming
E 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 9 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.

$$

PKZ170-290015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 40 kt becoming SW 55 kt in the afternoon. Seas 11
ft building to 20 ft in the afternoon. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 60 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 75 kt. Seas 26 ft subsiding to 19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ171-290015-
Unalaska Bay-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...S wind 25 kt becoming SW 40 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 60 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 75 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-290015-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW wind 40 kt increasing to 65 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to
80 kt. Seas 13 ft building to 29 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...W wind 65 kt becoming NW 50 kt after midnight. Gusts to 80
k. Seas 33 ft subsiding to 25 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ173-290015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 65 kt. Gusts to 85 kt. Seas 18 ft building to 30 ft 
in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt diminishing to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 
25 ft subsiding to 17 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-290015-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW wind 55 kt becoming W 65 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 85
kt. Seas 21 ft building to 32 ft in the afternoon.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 55 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 29
ft subsiding to 18 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ175-290015-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 65 kt. Seas 25 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ176-290015-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 55 kt. Gusts to 70 kt. Seas 26 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ177-290015-
Adak to Kiska-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...W wind 50 kt becoming NW 35 kt in the afternoon. Gusts to 65 kt.
Seas 21 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-290015-
Kiska to Attu-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN...S wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

PKZ179-290015-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 50 kt. Seas 14 ft. Rain and snow.
.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft. Rain showers.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ180-290015-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E wind 20 kt increasing to 45 kt in the afternoon. Seas
9 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 35 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ181-290015-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 15 kt becoming E 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ185-290015-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
339 AM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NE wind 25 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

884 
FZAK52 PAFC 282345
CWFALU

Coastal Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage Alaska
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

Coastal Waters Forecast for Southwest Alaska+Bristol Bay+The
Alaska Peninsula Waters and the Aleutian Islands up to 100 nm out.

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ199-291230-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 961 mb low 60 nm North of Dutch harbor moves to the Eastern 
Gulf of Alaska for Sun afternoon. A 1009 mb Sea of Okhotsk low 
and front Sun morning deepens as it approaches the Western 
Aleutians and Bering at 1000 mb by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ150-291230-
South of the AK Peninsula Sitkinak to Castle Cape-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE wind 40 kt becoming NE 45 kt after midnight. S of 
Chirikof Island, SE wind 40 kt becoming NW after midnight. Seas 15 
ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. Seas 24 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Gusts to 55 kt through bays and passes. 
Seas 20 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.MON...NW wind 40 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ155-291230-
South of the AK Peninsula Castle Cape to Cape Sarichef-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 55 kt, Seas 28 ft. From the Shumagin Islands E,
SW wind 40 kt becoming NW 50 kt after midnight, Seas 17 ft
building to 25 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 45 kt. From the Shumagin Islands W, NW wind 40 kt 
diminishing to 30 kt in the afternoon. Seas 23 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Gusts to 50 kt through bays and passes. Seas
15 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ160-291230-
Bristol Bay-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt becoming N 35 kt after midnight. Seas
10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 11 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ165-291230-
Port Heiden to Cape Sarichef-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 45 kt. Seas 16 ft. Rain and snow.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.MON...S wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...S wind 30 kt. Seas 19 ft.
.WED...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ170-291230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Bering Side-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 60 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 75 kt. Seas 26 ft subsiding to 19 ft after midnight. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ171-291230-
Unalaska Bay-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 60 kt diminishing to 40 kt after midnight. Gusts
to 75 kt. Seas 19 ft. Rain.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 5 ft building to 12 ft in the
afternoon.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 15 kt. Seas 2 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 4 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 4 ft.

$$

PKZ172-291230-
Cape Sarichef to Nikolski Pacific Side-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...HURRICANE FORCE WIND WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W wind 65 kt becoming NW 50 kt after midnight. Gusts to 80
kt. Seas 33 ft subsiding to 25 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 35 kt. W of Unalaska, NW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. E of Unalaska, gusts to 45 kt in the 
evening. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ173-291230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Bering Side-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 50 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 25
ft subsiding to 17 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.

$$

PKZ174-291230-
Nikolski to Seguam Island Pacific Side-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 55 kt becoming W 30 kt after midnight. Seas 29
ft subsiding to 18 ft after midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.MON...SE wind 35 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ175-291230-
Seguam Island to Adak Bering Side-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.

$$

PKZ176-291230-
Seguam Island to Adak Pacific Side-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 18 ft subsiding to 13 ft after
midnight.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...W wind 15 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 6 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.TUE...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.
.WED...W wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ177-291230-
Adak to Kiska-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 20 ft. Bering side, seas 15 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 20 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...N wind 30 kt. Seas 13 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ178-291230-
Kiska to Attu-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...SW wind 15 kt increasing to 25 kt after midnight.
Seas 7 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...SW wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 16 ft.

$$

PKZ179-291230-
Pribilof Islands Near Shore Waters-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 40 kt becoming NW 25 kt after midnight. Seas
13 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 20 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.TUE...SW wind 30 kt. Seas 15 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 14 ft.

$$

PKZ180-291230-
Kuskokwim Delta and Etolin Strait-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 50 kt becoming N 30 kt after midnight. Seas
12 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT...N wind 30 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...SE wind 40 kt. Seas 18 ft.
.WED...W wind 30 kt. Seas 18 ft.

$$

PKZ181-291230-
North and West of Nunivak Island-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE wind 20 kt. Seas 5 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 11 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind 25 kt. Seas 8 ft.
.MON...SE wind 30 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 14 ft.
.WED...NW wind 30 kt. Seas 12 ft.

$$

PKZ185-291230-
Saint Matthew Island Waters-
345 PM AKDT Fri Oct 28 2022

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SAT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SAT NIGHT...NW wind 25 kt. Seas 10 ft. Freezing spray.
.SUN...W wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...S wind 25 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind 25 kt. Seas 9 ft.
.TUE...NE wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.
.WED...NW wind 35 kt. Seas 17 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
456 PM AKDT Wed Oct 26 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

The pattern is dominated by a large upper-level trough situated
over the state, anchored by an upper-level low over the northern
Gulf. Multiple shortwaves are rotating around the upper-level low
today, keeping conditions generally unsettled across the Southern
Mainland. The first of these waves is over the northeastern Gulf
and moving east in conjunction with a compact surface low
northeast of Middleton Island. While precipitation lingers from
Prince William Sound east, the bigger story this afternoon is the
increase in northerly gap winds in the wake of the low. Winds are
gusting over 30 mph in Seward and over 40 mph in Whittier this
afternoon. The gusty winds are due to the tight pressure gradient
between the 962 mb Gulf low and higher pressures from the cold,
dense air advecting in from the interior of the state.

A second vigorous shortwave trough is dropping south across the
AKPen. This feature is associated with a surface low moving south
of King Salmon. The low was more pronounced this morning, but has
become somewhat diffuse as it hits the mountainous terrain.
Widespread snow showers persist from Bethel south to the AKPen,
where the precipitation transitions to a rain/snow mix for Cold
Bay and Sand Point. Again, the bigger story is the gusty northerly
winds. Winds gusted to 77 mph at Cape Newenham this morning with
peak gusts of 60 to 70 mph reported along the AKPen and as far
west as Akun.

Back east, snow showers continue along Cook Inlet and across
higher elevations of the Talkeetna and Kenai Mountains in response
to a weaker wave dropping south through the Susitna Valley. This
feature will help enhance gusty winds alter this afternoon. Snow
totals from the recent event across the Cook Inlet region ranged
from 1 to 4 inches across the Anchorage Bowl, 1 to 4 inches for
portions of the Susitna Valley, and upwards of 6 to 12 inches of
snow around Kenai and Soldotna.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Latest models runs are in good agreement with the evolution of the
pattern through 12z Fri, mainly keying in on the continued cold
air advection and resultant gusty northerly gap winds and show
shower activity across the eastern Bering and AKPen. After 12z
Friday, model guidance all indicate the development of another
deep area of low pressure west of Shemya, moving east across the
southern Bering and into the western Gulf for Saturday. The main
issue is the timing of the eastward progression of this system.
The EC and GEM continue to outpace the GFS and NAM, about 12 hours
faster in the progression of the system. There is also about a 10
mb difference in the pressure of the surface low, with the NAM
and EC in the 965 mb range and the GFS and GEM around 955 mb.
Overall, guidance all shows a similar track with the low crossing
the AKPen around Cold Bay, eventually moving into the western
Gulf and keeping its associated warm front just offshore of the
Southcentral coast. Overall, there is increased confidence in the
expected impacts of this system, but less confidence in the
timing of any wind and precipitation events.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...VFR conditions are expected along with northerly winds.
Winds and gusts are expected to increase by late afternoon and
continue through early Friday morning. The development of a FEW or
SCT deck of low stratus a few hundred feet AGL is possible over
Knik Arm overnight as colder air moves over warmer water. However,
given the continued northerly winds, any development of fog is
not expected.

&&.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3/Today
through Friday night)...

The upper level jet and short-wave which brought widespread snow
to Southcentral yesterday/last night has exited eastward to
Southeast Alaska. The upper level low which has been sitting over
Southwest Alaska will move over top of a surface low spinning near
Middleton Island  this morning, then slowly exit eastward this
afternoon through tonight. Areas of snow will linger through this
evening near the northern Gulf low center and into the Copper
River Basin as short-waves rotate up and around this center.

Meanwhile, snow will taper off across the rest of Southcentral
this morning as cold (and dry) air advection kicks in. The
combination of cold air advection and tight pressure gradients
will lead to a long period of strong gusty winds across the
Gulf of Alaska coastal waters and through bays/passes along
area mountains. The strongest winds are on track for the western
Gulf and Kodiak Island tonight, along the axis of strongest cold
air advection and area of best upper level forcing on the poleward
side of an upper jet streak and front side of a Bering Sea ridge.
Temperatures will steadily fall across the region through the end
of the week. A new storm will arrive from the Aleutians Friday
night. At this point in time there is quite a bit of uncertainty
in the details. However, with arctic air in place across mainland
Alaska and generally fast zonal flow aloft, expect this storm to
take a southerly track, likely only impacting Kodiak and the Gulf
coast as we head into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3: Tonight
through Saturday)...

A longwave trough dips over Mainland Alaska, with a vertically
stacked low resting in its base over the Gulf of Alaska. A tight
pressure gradient between this low in the Gulf and high pressure
in the North Pacific is contributing to strong northwesterly winds
across the Alaska Peninsula and along the Southwest coast.
Although the High Wind Warning for the Alaska Peninsula has since
expired, gusty northwesterly winds should continue for that area
through Thursday. In addition to winds, we'll see minimum
temperatures dip into the teens and single digits as northerly
flow ushers in cold air. These colder temperatures will keep
precipitation as snow as a shortwave brings showers over the
Kuskokwim Delta Thursday morning. Cold air moving over warmer
ocean waters will also lead to rain and snow showers moving from
the Bering Sea and into the Alaska Peninsula through Thursday
evening.

As we head into Friday, attention shifts to a strong surface low
that moves across the Southern Bering Sea. Models are coming into
better agreement with this storm force low, though differences
remain with its track and speed. Overall, the low looks to remain
far enough south (at least for now) that the worst of the
impacts should remain outside of Southwest Alaska. While Bristol
Bay and the Alaska Peninsula will likely see gusty winds and
light snow on Friday and Saturday, conditions look to be less
windy and drier for the Kuskokwim Delta and Lower Kuskokwim
Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Tonight through Saturday)...

Gusty northerly winds will continue for much of the Bering Sea
through Thursday, with the strongest winds at gale force for the
Eastern Bering Sea. The influx of colder air with this northerly
flow will lead to unstable conditions that produce snow or rain
showers.

Attention shifts on Thursday to a surface low moving east across
the Bering Sea. Forecast confidence is increasing that this will
be a storm force low, with the potential for hurricane force gusts
across the Central and Eastern Aleutian Islands. The influx of
warmer air with this low will lead to temperatures in the high 40s
along the Aleutian Islands and Southern Bering Sea, setting the
stage for light to moderate rain as the front moves across the
Chain from Thursday through Friday. As the low dips south across
the Alaska Peninsula late Friday night into early Saturday morning,
we could see freezing spray along the Southwest Alaska coast due
to cold, offshore flow.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Saturday through Tuesday)...

Looking ahead at the long range forecast, ensembles and
deterministic models continue to key in on broad troughing over
the Gulf of Alaska and a building ridge into the western Bering
Saturday into Sunday. A potential ~965mb low is forecast to move
from the AKPEN into the Gulf of Alaska during the 48 hour period
over the weekend while one or two embedded shortwave troughs track
southeastward into the AKPEN within a building ridge over the
Bering. As such, above average confidence exists in unsettled
conditions impacting the region from Bristol Bay into the Gulf of
Alaska up into the Gulf coast.

Across Bristol Bay, remnant northwesterly gales may be ongoing on
Saturday with timing of winds diminishing somewhat up in the air.
The GFS suggests gales may persist into the morning hours on
Sunday. Looking east and over to the Pacific side of the AKPEN,
the potential will exist for easterly gales over the northern Gulf
on Saturday as a front encroaches upon the Gulf coast resulting
in a potential barrier jet. While the windiest conditions will
likely remain offshore, the front may bring northeasterly gales
directly across Kodiak Island before the low pushes further east
later in the day. Models are in relatively good agreement with
depicting westerly storm force winds across the southern extent of
the Gulf both on Saturday and Sunday. Cold air advection being
reinforced over the eastern Bering will support gale to storm
force gap winds through the AKPEN and Kamishak Bay into Sunday.
These enhanced westerly winds should gradually weaken to gale
speeds on Monday as the pressure gradient slowly relaxes. While
snow will be possible for coastal areas from Kodiak to Prince
William Sound, strong southeasterly flow at the surface and ahead
of the low will likely keep temperatures above freezing and
precipitation as mostly rain.

Confidence begins to decrease more substantially in the forecast
beyond the weekend. Ensembles suggest high pressure over the
Bering will be overtaken by the next North Pacific low late Monday
into early Tuesday. Depending on the strength and placement of
the low, southeasterly storm force winds may become widespread
over the eastern Bering by Tuesday. However, aside from the
stronger solution of the GFS, both the Canadian and ECMWF remain
much weaker and further west, which was also true of the previous
long term discussion.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 130 131 132 150 155 352 GALE 121 136 137 138 160
165 170 171 172 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 185 351 412 413
414. FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...RC
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KC
LONG TERM...BL