Gale Warning 24, NWS Anchorage, AK

644 
FZAK61 PAFC 291240
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
340 AM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-300200-
340 AM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A 987 mb low at 59N 144W moves to 57N 140W at 1000 mb Sun morning. 
Weak high pressure moves over the Western Gulf by Sun afternoon.

$$

PKZ351-300200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
340 AM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft. Rain.
.TONIGHT...NW wind 15 to 30 kt diminishing to up to 20 kt after
midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 10 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...NW wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.WED...S wind up to 15 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.

$$

PKZ352-300200-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
340 AM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft. Snow and rain.
.TONIGHT...W wind 20 to 35 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 9 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 9 ft.
.MON...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

810 
FZAK61 PAFC 300009
OFFAER

Offshore Waters Forecast
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

Offshore waters forecast for the Gulf of Alaska West of 144W

Wind forecasts reflect the predominant speed and direction
expected. Sea forecasts represent an average of the highest
one-third of the combined wind wave and swell height.

PKZ399-301415-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 992 mb low at 57N 145W moves to 55N 136W at 1006 mb by 
Sun afternoon. Weak high pressure transits the western Gulf 
beginning Sun afternoon. A front enters the western Gulf 
Mon morning.

$$

PKZ351-301415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore North of 57N and West of 144W-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

.TONIGHT...N wind 15 to 30 kt becoming NW up to 20 kt 
after midnight. Seas 8 to 13 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...W wind up to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 8 ft.
.MON...W wind up to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 7 ft.
.MON NIGHT...E wind 10 to 25 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 13 ft.

$$

PKZ352-301415-
Gulf of Alaska Offshore South of 57N North of 55N and West of
144W-
309 PM AKST Sat Jan 29 2022

.TONIGHT...W wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 10 to 15 ft.
.SUN...W wind 10 to 20 kt. Seas 7 to 12 ft.
.SUN NIGHT...SW wind 10 to 15 kt. Seas 7 ft.
.MON...SE wind up to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 11 ft.
.MON NIGHT...SE wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft.
.TUE THROUGH THU...S wind 15 to 30 kt. Seas 9 to 14 ft.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
504 AM AKST Fri Jan 28 2022

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

An upper level low digging southwards across Bristol Bay towards
Kodiak today will inevitable cut off forcing for precipitation
across western Southcentral, with snow beginning to taper off by
the mid morning hours. The system then skates across the southern
Gulf towards the Southeast Coast by Saturday night. Meanwhile, a
series of shortwaves within the inverted trough moves across the
North Gulf Coast and Prince William Sound areas, leaving them stuck
in prolonged periods of precipitation through tonight. The
weakening surface low lingers in the Gulf through late Saturday
night before moving off to the southeastern Gulf by Sunday
morning.

Out west, most of Southwest to the Central Bering are trapped
under an upper level ridge, sweeping in cold Arctic air from the
Interior. A strong vertically stacked low is pushing towards the
Western Aleutians and into the western Bering through tonight
before shifting northwards, moving off towards the Kamchatka
Peninsula early Saturday morning. The front off another separate
North Pacific low moves into the southern Bering by Sunday
morning.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

Models are in good overall synoptic agreement through the short
term. There are still some light discrepancies with the low
meandering in the Gulf, mainly with a couple models wanting to
develop a triple point low near Kodiak later today. Another North
Pacific low is being tracked through the eastern Gulf before
eventually reaching the North Gulf Coast. There is some struggle
with pinpointing the center location but they are in relatively
good agreement on low strength. Further west, models are handling
a large low east of Adak quite fairly well as it enters the
western Bering before shifting north towards the Kamchatka
Peninsula.

&&

.AVIATION...

PANC...MVFR to IFR conditions are expected to persist through mid
morning or once the snow begins tapering off. Cloud decks should
lift to 5000' by late morning and continue improving beyond that.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...

The cold upper level low is dropping southward along the Western
part of the Alaska Range this morning. As it heads southward and
cuts off, it will end the snow in the inland parts of Southcentral
leaving just some rain and snow along the immediate north Gulf
coast. That remaining precipitation is the result of a weakening
surface low in the northern Gulf as well as onshore flow around
this low.

In general it looks like the snow is pretty much over for
Anchorage and points farther north. Due to the location and
interaction of the upper level low and the surface low, the
western Kenai Peninsula will continue to see snowfall through the
morning. The snow bands that have been oriented north-to-south for
the overnight period will pivot to have a more northwest-to-
southeast orientation as the morning goes on. This will likely
push the back edge of the snow west of Kenai early this morning,
but keep the snow persisting south of there and through Homer for
most of the morning. Winds are also picking up along the Inlet so
kept the Winter Weather Advisory out until noon today for the
Western Kenai Peninsula. The main concern is for snow and blowing
snow along the Sterling highway south of Soldotna.

Looks for a clearing and cooling trend through the weekend across
Southcentral as northerly flow and high pressure move over the
area.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Sunday)...

Clear and cold conditions will continue through the short term
with gusty winds expected today. An upper level low over Bristol
Bay will dive south bringing colder air today. This low will pull
moisture from the low over the Gulf and bring a chance of light
snow to eastern portions of Bristol Bay mainly near Iliamna and
south towards Katmai National Park. Gusty winds will continue
Saturday across the Kuskokwim Delta, but will weaken over Bristol
Bay. A few clouds may hang around Bristol Bay on Saturday, but
overall clear and cold conditions will continue. On Sunday it will
warm a bit as the winds weaken with temperatures a few degrees
warmer than previous days.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3:
Today through Sunday)...

Gap winds will continue south of the AKPen through Saturday
morning as cold air moves south with storm force gusts expected.
Meanwhile out over the western Bering and Aleutians a low pressure
system will bring a swath of Gales with small pockets of storm
force winds near the low through Saturday. In between these two
systems from the northern Bering towards the eastern Aleutians
high pressure will prevail with quiet weather conditions expected
through Saturday. On Sunday another low pressure system approaches
the central and eastern Aleutians with Gale force winds expected.

&&

.MARINE (Days 3 through 5 - Sunday through Tuesday)...

Gulf of Alaska:

A weak trough persists across the Northern Gulf through Tuesday.
Weak high pressure moves across the Southern Gulf through Tuesday.
Forecast confidence is good. A front enters the Western Gulf for
Tuesday. Gusty winds ahead of the front. Seas to 15 feet over the
Southern Gulf through Tuesday. Seas to 20 feet behind the front
along the Alaska Peninsula Coast for Tuesday.

Bering Sea/Aleutians:

A well developed low exits the Western Bering by Tuesday. Gales
diminish over the Western Bering, with 22 feet seas subsiding
Monday. Forecast confidence becomes mixed with the approach of two
low centers and their development through Tuesday. A well
developed low crosses the Central bering Monday and moves to the
Western Bering to dissipate Tuesday. Another well developed low
moves to the Southwest Bering by Tuesday. Gusty winds over the
Bering increase to gales with areas of storm force winds near the
lows, spreading into the Northern and Eastern Bering by Tuesday.
Seas building to 20 feet over the Bering through Tuesday. Seas to
20 feet on the Pacific side of the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska
Peninsula for Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Monday through Thursday)...

The present Omega block pattern breaks down and gives way to a
broad upper-level gyre over the North Pacific and Bering, with
ridging to the east across the Gulf of Alaska and the southern
mainland for next week. Several shortwave troughs are expected to
rotate through the upper-level gyre, bringing periods of gusty
winds and a mix of rain and snow to the Bering/Aleutians. Despite
uncertainty in the timing and placement of any specific synoptic-
scale feature, the longwave ridge looks to progress slowly
eastward as each successive front pushes closer to and eventually
inland across Southwest Alaska. As a result, expect a gradual
transition to warmer temperatures and more active weather with
the potential for precipitation type issues across Southwest.

Southcentral looks to remain colder and drier with ridging
remaining in place for longer. However, there is some agreement
that a weak disturbance enters the Gulf of Alaska on Tuesday,
which could produce some brief precipitation, primarily snow, for
Southcentral. Toward the end of the week, a warmer, wetter
regime makes a potential return, with chances for rain and mixed
precipitation type across Southcentral as stronger shortwaves
begin to make it further east.

&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Winter Weather Advisory 121 131 141
	  	 Wind Chill Advisory 155
MARINE...Storm Warning 411
	  	 Gale Warning 130 131 150 155 175 176 177 178 185
	 	 Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 138 150 165 179 185 414
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KM
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RC
MARINE/LONG TERM...MK/CQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
307 PM AKST FRI JAN 28 2022

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0304 PM     SNOW             12 NNW HOPE             61.06N 149.76W
01/28/2022  M2.5 INCH        ANCHORAGE          AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION OF 2.5 INCHES
            FOR UPPER POTTER VALLEY AS OF 3PM.

&&